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Astros 8, Beavers 7                                          2026-06-27 · #916
at The Oval
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 8    8    9    0
Portland                7    7   10    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Braun       ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Patridge    3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
Thom        c  ......    3   1   3   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gómez       1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Solórzano   2b ......    2   3   2   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Humphreys   rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tassew      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Rivas   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ayala       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  b-Morales ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Konig   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Wiesner pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Henríqu pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Oliveira    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  22   8   9   1   0   0   8   5   8   0   1  0.409
  2B: Patridge (5).
  GIDP: Braun (5).
  a-Batted for Tassew in the 3rd.
  b-Walked for Ayala in the 3rd.
  c-Batted in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Morales in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 4th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lindsay     p  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Vahaly  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Turenne     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Guerra      cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Harper      rf ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Aktaş       3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Waston  pr ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Schillig    ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Holzworth   1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Streko  ph ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Villarr pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Zamora  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Clement ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Abate       j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   7  10   4   0   0   6   6  12   0   0  0.345
  2B: Harper (7), Schillig (3), Redmayne (4), Streko (2).
  CS: Guerra (8).
  GIDP: Waston (1).
  a-Ran for Lindsay in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Aktaş in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Holzworth in the 6th.
  d-Ran in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Batted for Zamora in the 7th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ayala ...............    11   10  37%    4    0    0    1    4    0   41    -
Vildoza .............     7    4  15%    3    2    2    1    2    0   25  1-0
Reliford (W, 1-2) ...    11    9  33%    2    3    3    2    4    0   41  2-1
Carrington ..........     6    4  15%    1    2    2    2    2    0   22  1-1

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Lindsay (L, 3-14) ...    24   18  67%    7    6    6    4    8    0   86    -
Ives ................     2    0   0%    1    2    2    1    0    0    3  1-1

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ayala (Outs 1-10) → Vildoza (Outs 11-14) → Reliford (Outs 15-23) → Carrington (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Patridge (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Braun (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tassew (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Humphreys (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-18)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Lindsay (Outs 1-18)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-18)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-18)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-18)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-18)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Schillig (Outs 1-18)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Turenne (Outs 1-18)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-18)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harper (Outs 1-18)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted first; Astros batted second.
  First pitch 5:00 PM PT. Weather: 70°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 19438.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 13 Yadier Guerra Beals Villarreal (3B) 0–1
B 14 Seleshi Abate Sydney Redmayne (3B) 0–2
B 17 Francisco Vahaly Donis Zamora (3B) 0–3
B 22 Gabriel Harper Mekhi Streko (2B) 0–4
B 23 Ludlow Schillig Gabriel Harper (2B) 0–5
B 23 Mekhi Streko Ludlow Schillig (2B) 0–6
B 25 Val Clement Mekhi Streko (3B) 0–7
T 3 Jeyland Solórzano Iapani Thom (2B) 1–7
T 9 Jeyland Solórzano Jeyland Solórzano (3B) 2–7
T 10 Iapani Thom Zane Wiesner (3B) 3–7
T 14 Maxi Valencia Jeyland Solórzano (3B) 4–7
T 17 Mayer Gómez Marcos Kingsbury (3B) 5–7
T 18 Iapani Thom Maxi Valencia (3B) 6–7
T 18 Butch Patridge Jeyland Solórzano (3B) 7–7
T 18 Butch Patridge Brayan Braun (1B) 8–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Astros — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Iapani Thom — single · EV 75 mph · LA +16° · 116 ft Mayer Gómez — single · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 143 ft Jeyland Solórzano — single · EV 67 mph · LA +22° · 127 ft Shimeket Tassew — single · EV 88 mph · LA -13° · 84 ft Iapani Thom — single · EV 78 mph · LA +1° · 74 ft Brayan Braun — double_play · EV 83 mph · LA +12° · 115 ft Maxi Valencia — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +30° · 236 ft Jeyland Solórzano — single · EV 89 mph · LA +11° · 117 ft Butch Patridge — double · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 283 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +4° · 90 ft Iapani Thom — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA +5° · 68 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 6 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Armel Lindsay — single · EV 88 mph · LA -6° · 83 ft Dawood Aktaş — single · EV 98 mph · LA +6° · 93 ft Wilmer Velazquez — single · EV 88 mph · LA -3° · 84 ft Sydney Redmayne — double · EV 108 mph · LA +23° · 330 ft Yadier Guerra — single · EV 93 mph · LA +20° · 221 ft Seleshi Abate — single · EV 82 mph · LA +19° · 162 ft Agustín Waston — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Francisco Vahaly — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 268 ft Mekhi Streko — double · EV 103 mph · LA +16° · 226 ft Armel Lindsay — single · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 88 ft Levar De Turenne — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA +20° · 144 ft Gabriel Harper — double · EV 104 mph · LA +15° · 211 ft Ludlow Schillig — double · EV 105 mph · LA +18° · 254 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
30% deserve-to-win  ·  4.5 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +3.5 vs expected
contact: 5.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (+3.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Butch Patridge 92 / +28° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Iapani Thom 78 / +1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Iapani Thom 72 / +5° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Shimeket Tassew 88 / -13° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Brayan Braun 83 / +12° Pull Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Beavers
70% deserve-to-win  ·  6.9 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.1 vs expected
contact: 11.0 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+3.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Francisco Vahaly 92 / +26° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Armel Lindsay 88 / -6° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Armel Lindsay 92 / -2° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Wilmer Velazquez 88 / -3° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Mekhi Streko 103 / +16° Oppo Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
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