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Stars 10, Orcas 3                                            2026-06-29 · #938
at Abdurakhmanov Park
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Nashville              10      0   10    6    0
Vancouver               3      0    3    4    0

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cooper      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Mendez      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Karouani    1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Fusano      ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Spence      rf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Ruiz    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Beers       3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Santamaría  2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Gamboa  pr ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.667
Gayton      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Cantey  ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cubas       p  ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   4   1   1   0   1  0.333
  d-Caballe pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30  10   6   3   0   1   9   6  13   0   1  0.200
  2B: Spence (5), Cubas (2), Cantey (30).
  HR: Gamboa (2), off Bolaños.
  SB: Gamboa (6).
  CS: Mendez (1), Gamboa (4).
  a-Ran for Spence in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Santamaría in the 3rd.
  c-Doubled for Gayton in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Cantey in the 5th.

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Noonan      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Velez       p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Alonso- pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Irvin       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Whitley pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Peavy       lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Godín       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Balotelli   2b ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Prince      rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Garcés      cf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Badger  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Corona      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   3   4   1   0   0   2   3  13   0   0  0.133
  2B: Balotelli (5).
  GIDP: Noonan (4).
  a-Ran for Velez in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Irvin in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Garcés in the 5th.

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cubas (W, 6-4) ......    32   27 100%    3    3    3    3   13    0  129    -

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Velez ...............    27   20  74%    5    7    7    5   10    0  110    -
Bolaños (L, 0-1) ....     9    7  26%    1    3    2    1    3    1   37  1-1

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Cubas (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santamaría (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Beers (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Velez (Outs 1-20) → Bolaños (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Noonan (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Irvin (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Balotelli (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Corona (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Godín (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Garcés (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Prince (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orcas (home) batted second; Stars batted first.
  Seconds: NSH o26 (10-0), VCO o26 (3-10).
  First pitch 6:00 PM PT. Weather: 80°F · Wind cross · Overcast. seed 526543.
  Walk-Back runs: off Bolaños 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 12.00
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.83
     9 outs left: 3.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 6 Gian Cubas Sean Spence (3B) 1–0 —
T 7 Oliver Cantey Manuel Gamboa (3B) 2–0 —
T 7 Manuel Gamboa Gian Cubas (3B) 3–0 —
T 17 Sandy Beers Tony Caballero (3B) 4–0 —
T 19 Gian Cubas Tracy Fusano (3B) 5–0 —
T 19 Gian Cubas Javier Ruiz (2B) 6–0 —
T 19 Gian Cubas Sandy Beers (1B) 7–0 —
T 21 Manuel Gamboa Gian Cubas (3B) 8–0 —
T 21 Manuel Gamboa Manuel Gamboa (HR) 9–0 —
T 25 Bruno Cooper Manuel Gamboa (3B) 10–0 —
B 10 Herb Noonan Tony Garcés (3B) 10–1 1.76
B 18 Herb Noonan Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles (3B) 10–2 3.00
B 25 Karim Balotelli Berkeley Whitley (3B) 10–3 12.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 12.00
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.83
9 outs left 3.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Park's actual outfield dimensions (LF 282' · CF 485' · RF 283' · 12' wall). Bathtub.
Tal's Hill
Stars — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
282' 485' 283' Facundo Mendez — error · EV 66 mph · LA -14° · 63 ft Khosilot El Karouani — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -5° · 74 ft Sean Spence — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 176 ft Sandy Beers — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +0° · 76 ft Oliver Cantey — double · EV 91 mph · LA +14° · 161 ft Manuel Gamboa — single · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 237 ft Gian Cubas — double · EV 102 mph · LA +22° · 294 ft Sandy Beers — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +2° · 62 ft Facundo Mendez — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +10° · 90 ft Gian Cubas — fly_out · EV 110 mph · LA +20° · 302 ft Tony Caballero — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -3° · 81 ft Sandy Beers — single · EV 89 mph · LA +3° · 85 ft Manuel Gamboa — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +40° · 409 ft Facundo Mendez — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +27° · 276 ft
Orcas — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
282' 485' 283' Andrea Peavy — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Omar Godín — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft Tony Garcés — single · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft Stuart Irvin — error · EV 52 mph · LA -2° · 49 ft Herb Noonan — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -29° · 49 ft Berkeley Whitley — single · EV 92 mph · LA +3° · 87 ft Louis Badger — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 320 ft Jeff Prince — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Andrea Peavy — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -8° · 72 ft Herb Noonan — fielders_choice · EV 81 mph · LA -0° · 77 ft Andrea Peavy — fly_out · EV 61 mph · LA +28° · 122 ft Karim Balotelli — double · EV 92 mph · LA +48° · 336 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Stars
92% deserve-to-win  ·  6.1 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +3.9 vs expected
contact: 11.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Gian Cubas 110 / +20° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.72
Manuel Gamboa 102 / +40° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Oliver Cantey 91 / +14° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Sean Spence 100 / +13° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Facundo Mendez 92 / +27° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Orcas
8% deserve-to-win  ·  1.8 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  +1.2 vs expected
contact: 4.0 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Karim Balotelli 92 / +48° Pull Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Louis Badger 92 / +35° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Tony Garcés 92 / +8° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Berkeley Whitley 92 / +3° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Jeff Prince 52 / +9° Oppo Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
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