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Braves 16, Astros 13                                         2026-06-30 · #946
at Meadow Stadium
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Atlanta                16      0   16   13    1
Houston                13      0   13   13    0

BRAVES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sauerbrunn  3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.250
Alvelo      2b ......    5   3   3   0   0   1   5   0   1   0   0  0.600
Kalogeropou lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Spencer     rf ......    1   2   1   0   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Martín  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Bray        cf ......    5   1   3   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.600
Ramon-Edwar c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Nightingale ss ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Siska       1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Parkes      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  b-Chu     pr ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Lamar   ph ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  35  16  13   1   0   4  12   5  14   0   1  0.371
  2B: Chu (26).
  HR: Alvelo (2), off Reliford; Spencer (1), off Hammerbeck; Nightingale (2), off Vildoza; Lamar (6), off Reliford.
  SB: Alvelo (8), Kalogeropoulos (6), Martín (4).
  CS: Alvelo (11), Bray 2 (6), Martín (6).
  E: Alvelo (6).
  a-Ran for Spencer in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Parkes in the 4th.
  c-Batted in the 7th.

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maier       cf ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Braun       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Kingsbury   lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
Hammerbeck  p  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Tassew  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rivas       3b ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Morales     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.000
Thom        rf ......    3   2   2   1   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  0.667
Gómez       ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wiesner     c  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Neely       ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Patridg ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Henríqu pr ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Oliveira    j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  35  13  13   6   0   2  13   4   7   0   0  0.371
  2B: Oliveira (5), Kingsbury (2), Hammerbeck (2), Rivas (8), Thom (8), Henríquez (3).
  HR: Rivas (2), off Buford; Thom (3), off Parkes.
  SB: Maier 2 (2).
  Squeeze: Braun.
  a-Ran for Hammerbeck in the 7th.
  b-Batted in the 5th.
  c-Ran in the 7th.

BRAVES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Parkes (W, 2-3) .....    16   14  52%    5    3    2    1    3    1   55    -
Buford ..............    10    6  22%    4    5    5    1    2    1   37  1-0
Morejón .............     4    0   0%    3    4    3    1    0    0   16  1-1
Voorhees (F, 18) ....     7    7  26%    1    1    1    1    2    0   30  1-1

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hammerbeck ..........     7    5  19%    2    2    2    1    3    1   27    -
Vildoza .............     4    2   7%    3    3    1    0    1    1   18  1-1
Kryvonos (L, 0-5) ...    15   13  48%    3    4    4    2    7    0   61  1-1
Reliford ............     6    2   7%    3    5    4    1    2    2   27    -
Fenty ...............     8    5  19%    2    2    1    1    1    0   36  1-1

BRAVES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Parkes (Outs 1-14) → Buford (Outs 15-20) → Voorhees (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Ramon-Edwards (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Siska (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Alvelo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Sauerbrunn (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nightingale (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kalogeropoulos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Bray (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spencer (Outs 1-27)

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hammerbeck (Outs 1-5) → Vildoza (Outs 6-7) → Kryvonos (Outs 8-20) → Reliford (Outs 21-22) → Fenty (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Wiesner (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Braun (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Neely (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Kingsbury (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Maier (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Thom (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Astros (home) batted second; Braves batted first.
  Seconds: ATL o24 (16-0), HOU o25 (13-16).
  First pitch 7:05 PM CT. Weather: 65°F · Wind out · Overcast. seed 823915.
  Walk-Back runs: off Morejón 1, off Vildoza 2, off Reliford 1, off Fenty 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 2 Zack Spencer Mirko Alvelo (1B) 1–0
T 2 Zack Spencer Zack Spencer (HR) 2–0
T 2 Hugo Bray Zack Spencer (3B) 3–0
T 4 Donny Nightingale Donny Nightingale (HR) 4–0
T 4 Malcolm Siska Donny Nightingale (3B) 5–0
T 7 Kreigh Kalogeropoulos Malcolm Siska (3B) 6–0
T 12 Mirko Alvelo Kreigh Kalogeropoulos (3B) 7–0
T 12 Mirko Alvelo Joseph Martín (3B) 8–0
T 12 Mirko Alvelo Todd Chu (2B) 9–0
T 19 Mirko Alvelo Todd Chu (3B) 10–0
T 19 Mirko Alvelo Akili Sauerbrunn (1B) 11–0
T 19 Mirko Alvelo Mirko Alvelo (HR) 12–0
T 19 Dennis Lamar Mirko Alvelo (3B) 13–0
T 19 Dennis Lamar Dennis Lamar (HR) 14–0
T 19 Joseph Martín Dennis Lamar (3B) 15–0
T 22 Malcolm Siska Hugo Bray (3B) 16–0
B 5 Iapani Thom Scoville Rivas (3B) 16–1
B 5 Iapani Thom Iapani Thom (HR) 16–2
B 10 Jeyland Morales Zack Hammerbeck (2B) 16–3
B 13 Zane Wiesner Van Neely (2B) 16–4
B 16 Iapani Thom Zane Wiesner (2B) 16–5
B 16 Van Neely Iapani Thom (2B) 16–6
B 18 Scoville Rivas Van Neely (2B) 16–7
B 18 Scoville Rivas Scoville Rivas (HR) 16–8
B 18 Marcos Kingsbury Scoville Rivas (3B) 16–9
B 18 Marcos Kingsbury Shimeket Tassew (1B) 16–10
B 18 Marcelo Oliveira Angel Henríquez (2B) 16–11
B 18 Angel Henríquez Marcelo Oliveira (2B) 16–12
B 22 Quentin Maier Angel Henríquez (2B) 16–13
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Meadow Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 374' · CF 430' · RF 367' · 8' wall). The Hourglass.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Ivy Wall
Braves — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 8 1B · 1 XBH · 4 HR
374' 430' 367' Mirko Alvelo — single · EV 88 mph · LA -9° · 84 ft Zack Spencer — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 398 ft Hugo Bray — single · EV 100 mph · LA -8° · 95 ft Donny Nightingale — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +45° · 480 ft Malcolm Siska — single · EV 104 mph · LA +8° · 121 ft Dennis Lamar — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 380 ft Todd Chu — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 165 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -29° · 78 ft Kreigh Kalogeropoulos — single · EV 119 mph · LA -1° · 113 ft Donny Nightingale — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 208 ft Malcolm Siska — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft Joseph Martín — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -12° · 95 ft Mirko Alvelo — single · EV 112 mph · LA +4° · 106 ft Hugo Bray — single · EV 119 mph · LA +9° · 181 ft Akili Sauerbrunn — single · EV 113 mph · LA +4° · 107 ft Mirko Alvelo — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +28° · 464 ft Hugo Bray — single · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft Sean Ramon-Edwards — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Mirko Alvelo — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +4° · 95 ft
Astros — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 5 1B · 6 XBH · 2 HR
374' 430' 367' Zack Hammerbeck — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -9° · 91 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 119 mph · LA +14° · 255 ft Quentin Maier — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +12° · 159 ft Iapani Thom — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +44° · 480 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +4° · 84 ft Van Neely — single · EV 112 mph · LA +18° · 290 ft Marcelo Oliveira — double · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 333 ft Angel Henríquez — double · EV 96 mph · LA +25° · 283 ft Maxi Valencia — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +15° · 164 ft Marcos Kingsbury — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 200 ft Zack Hammerbeck — double · EV 99 mph · LA +29° · 332 ft Jeyland Morales — error · EV 100 mph · LA -16° · 95 ft Quentin Maier — single · EV 100 mph · LA -10° · 95 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +15° · 120 ft Zane Wiesner — single · EV 95 mph · LA +3° · 90 ft Iapani Thom — double · EV 118 mph · LA +10° · 193 ft Butch Patridge — single · EV 94 mph · LA -5° · 90 ft Angel Henríquez — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 144 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Quentin Maier — ground_out · EV 119 mph · LA +4° · 113 ft Scoville Rivas — hr · EV 110 mph · LA +47° · 480 ft Marcos Kingsbury — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 367 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -17° · 78 ft Quentin Maier — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Braves
31% deserve-to-win  ·  10.5 expected runs
actual 16 runs  ·  +5.5 vs expected
contact: 22.3 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 26.0 (+3.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 3 CS (-1.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dennis Lamar 100 / +36° Pull Home Run 2.0 → 4 +2.05
Zack Spencer 100 / +42° Pull Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Donny Nightingale 100 / +16° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Mirko Alvelo 119 / +28° Pull Home Run 3.0 → 4 +1.04
Todd Chu 100 / +12° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.75
Astros
69% deserve-to-win  ·  15.7 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  -2.7 vs expected
contact: 26.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 25.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+1.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Kingsbury 100 / +15° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Quentin Maier 97 / +12° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.11
Zack Hammerbeck 99 / +29° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.92
Angel Henríquez 96 / +25° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.92
Maxi Valencia 90 / +15° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
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