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Phillies 21, Nationals 5                                     2026-07-02 · #968
at Tannery Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Philadelphia           16      5   21   14    0
Washington              5      0    5    7    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   cf ......    4   2   3   1   0   1   5   0   1   0   0  0.750
Gullett     p  ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.250
Craft       rf ......    5   3   3   2   1   0   5   0   1   0   0  0.600
Mattke      2b ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0   0  0.333
Moor        lf ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Logar       1b ......    5   1   1   0   1   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.200
Santos      ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.250
Israilov    c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Martín  pr ......    3   4   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
Borges      3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Vásquez pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Sprackl ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cubas       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  36  21  14   3   2   4  19   6  10   0   0  0.389
  2B: Grizzlies (17), Craft 2 (3).
  3B: Craft (1), Logar (4).
  HR: Grizzlies (6), off Maiava; Gullett (1), off Clemente; Mattke (3), off Maiava; Moor (6), off Maiava.
  HBP: Moor 2 (3).
  a-Ran for Israilov in the 3rd.
  b-Ran in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Vásquez in the 7th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cruz        cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Pastore     2b ......    4   2   2   1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Cheng       rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Morel       ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Foster      1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.333
Ferrie      3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Baloy       lf ......    4   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Shi         c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.500
Maiava      p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  1.000
  a-Thompki ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   5   7   2   1   1   4   2  10   0   2  0.241
  2B: Pastore (7), Foster (2).
  3B: Baloy (1).
  HR: Pastore (5), off Gullett.
  a-Grounded out in the 5th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Gullett .............    11    7  26%    4    4    3    1    5    1   44    -
Sippel (W, 2-0) .....    13   13  48%    2    1    1    1    3    0   50  1-0
Poruri (F, 24) ......     7    7  26%    1    0    0    0    2    0   23  1-0

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Maiava (L, 3-5) .....    36   23  85%   11   15   13    5   11    3  133    -
Clemente ............     9    4  15%    3    6    5    1    0    1   32  1-1

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Gullett (Outs 1-7) → Sippel (Outs 8-20) → Poruri (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Mattke (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Borges (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Santos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moor (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Craft (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Maiava (Outs 1-23) → Clemente (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Shi (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Foster (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ferrie (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Morel (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cruz (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cheng (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  Seconds: PHI o24 (16-0), WSN o25 (5-16).
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 89°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 915244.
  Walk-Back runs: off Gullett 1, off Maiava 1, off Clemente 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 4 Daniel Israilov Will Craft (3B) 1–0
T 7 Nicolas Martín Nicolas Martín (2B) 2–0
T 12 Andres Gullett Nicolas Martín (2B) 3–0
T 13 Zach Grizzlies Alberto Vásquez (3B) 4–0
T 13 Zach Grizzlies Vitas Anthony (2B) 5–0
T 13 Zach Grizzlies Zach Grizzlies (HR) 6–0
T 19 Jahiem Moor Jahiem Moor (HR) 7–0
T 19 Will Craft Jahiem Moor (3B) 8–0
T 19 Will Craft Anthony Mattke (1B) 9–0
T 20 Zach Grizzlies Will Craft (3B) 10–0
T 20 Derek Spracklin Zach Grizzlies (3B) 11–0
T 24 Will Craft Nicolas Martín (3B) 12–0
T 24 Will Craft Jahiem Moor (2B) 13–0
T 24 Andres Gullett Will Craft (2B) 14–0
T 24 Andres Gullett Andres Gullett (HR) 15–0
T 24 Zach Grizzlies Andres Gullett (3B) 16–0
B 0 Marcos Pastore Marcos Pastore (HR) 16–1
B 2 Rayce Foster Marcos Pastore (3B) 16–2
B 2 Diehl Ferrie Rayce Foster (2B) 16–3
B 5 Montrell Maiava Diehl Ferrie (2B) 16–4
B 13 Damion Thompkins José Cruz (3B) 16–5
seconds_first 1 Marco Logar Nicolas Martín (3B) 17–5
seconds_first 1 Marco Logar Sandy Santos (1B) 18–5
seconds_first 1 Anthony Mattke Marco Logar (3B) 19–5
seconds_first 2 Anthony Mattke Anthony Mattke (HR) 20–5
seconds_first 2 Will Craft Anthony Mattke (3B) 21–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 5 1B · 5 XBH · 4 HR
331' 438' 348' Andres Gullett — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +20° · 204 ft Will Craft — double · EV 111 mph · LA +27° · 403 ft Jahiem Moor — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +22° · 198 ft Marco Logar — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +35° · 355 ft Devron Borges — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +37° · 327 ft Nicolas Martín — single · EV 90 mph · LA +12° · 132 ft Anthony Mattke — line_out · EV 97 mph · LA +21° · 247 ft Derek Spracklin — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -4° · 70 ft Devron Borges — single · EV 80 mph · LA -10° · 76 ft Andres Gullett — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -5° · 63 ft Zach Grizzlies — hr · EV 106 mph · LA +45° · 448 ft Nicolas Martín — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +33° · 211 ft Jahiem Moor — hr · EV 117 mph · LA +27° · 446 ft Will Craft — triple · EV 110 mph · LA +21° · 322 ft Zach Grizzlies — double · EV 95 mph · LA +18° · 211 ft Sandy Santos — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +27° · 223 ft Nicolas Martín — single · EV 119 mph · LA +7° · 113 ft Anthony Mattke — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +26° · 451 ft Marco Logar — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +4° · 65 ft Will Craft — double · EV 102 mph · LA +38° · 406 ft Andres Gullett — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +28° · 428 ft Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 109 mph · LA +15° · 234 ft Sandy Santos — single · EV 90 mph · LA -7° · 86 ft Marco Logar — triple · EV 107 mph · LA +18° · 265 ft Will Craft — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +31° · 347 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
331' 438' 348' Marcos Pastore — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +39° · 480 ft Rayce Foster — double · EV 96 mph · LA +21° · 248 ft Diehl Ferrie — single · EV 88 mph · LA -18° · 84 ft Montrell Maiava — single · EV 92 mph · LA -11° · 87 ft Zhiqiang Shi — single · EV 88 mph · LA +20° · 202 ft Damion Thompkins — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -22° · 70 ft Marcos Pastore — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +24° · 229 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft Rayce Foster — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -5° · 82 ft Diehl Ferrie — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA +36° · 373 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 160 ft Kendry Baloy — triple · EV 98 mph · LA +12° · 157 ft Rayce Foster — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -8° · 91 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +32° · 280 ft Marcos Pastore — double · EV 100 mph · LA +12° · 156 ft Yoel Morel — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -11° · 95 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +6° · 77 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
88% deserve-to-win  ·  18.0 expected runs
actual 21 runs  ·  +3.0 vs expected
contact: 31.3 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 33.0 (+1.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marco Logar 97 / +35° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Marco Logar 107 / +18° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.35
Will Craft 110 / +21° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.28
Anthony Mattke 97 / +21° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.24
Zach Grizzlies 95 / +18° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Nationals
12% deserve-to-win  ·  6.7 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.7 vs expected
contact: 15.3 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-1.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Kendry Baloy 98 / +12° Pull Triple 1.1 → 3 +1.89
Diehl Ferrie 99 / +36° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.43
Cheng-wei Cheng 88 / +32° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Marcos Pastore 88 / +24° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Kendry Baloy 88 / +16° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
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