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Rockies 14, Padres 7                                         2026-07-03 · #986
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Colorado               14   14   12    0
San Diego               7    7    8    0

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Goss        lf ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.667
Otamendi    cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Porteño     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ruidíaz     3b ......    5   2   2   0   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.400
Mondragón   c  ......    2   3   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Cubillán    2b ......    3   3   2   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.667
Dávila      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   2   1   0  0.333
Chaves      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Martinho    ss ......    3   2   2   1   0   1   3   1   0   0   0  0.667
Robles      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Diatta  ph ......    2   1   1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  30  14  12   3   1   2  14   8   7   1   0  0.400
  2B: Goss (28), Cubillán (3), Martinho (39).
  3B: Diatta (4).
  HR: Ruidíaz (2), off Hulbert; Martinho (19), off Molin.
  SB: Goss (10).
  CS: Goss (5), Otamendi (2).
  HBP: Porteño (5), Cubillán (2).
  Squeeze: Ruidíaz.
  a-Batted in the 8th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Lettiere    3b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Fernández   lf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Najar       rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Atehortua   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
MacCracken  2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Schwinger   c  ......    3   3   2   1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
DeLong      ss ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Hulbert     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fehr        cf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
  a-Staten  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   7   8   1   0   1   4   3   3   0   0  0.276
  2B: Schwinger (2).
  HR: Schwinger (1), off Dávila.
  SB: Staten (5).
  CS: Hulbert (5).
  HBP: Fernández (6), Schwinger (1).
  GIDP: Fernández (7), Atehortua (7).
  GITP: Najar (1).
  a-Grounded out in the 5th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Dávila (W, 17-3) ....    16   12  44%    3    4    1    2    1    1   58    -
Schramm .............    15   11  41%    5    3    2    1    1    0   44  1-1
Mejia (F, 7) ........     3    4  15%    0    0    0    0    1    0   11  2-0

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hulbert (L, 5-9) ....    22   15  56%    6    7    7    6    3    1   80    -
Molin ...............    16   10  37%    6    7    2    2    4    1   56  2-1
Pendergrass .........     2    2   7%    0    0    0    0    1    0   10  2-0

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Dávila (Outs 1-12) → Schramm (Outs 13-23) → Mejia (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mondragón (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Chaves (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cubillán (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Robles (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Hulbert (Outs 1-15) → Molin (Outs 16-25) → Pendergrass (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | DeLong (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted second; Rockies batted first.
  First pitch 7:10 PM PT. Weather: 93°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 307716.
  Walk-Back runs: off Schramm 1, off Molin 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 3 Pervis Cubillán Wesly Otamendi (2B) 1–0
T 3 Pervis Cubillán Aníbal Mondragón (1B) 2–0
T 6 Markeylin Martinho Pervis Cubillán (2B) 3–0
T 9 Marco Ruidíaz Pervis Cubillán (3B) 4–0
T 9 Marco Ruidíaz Aníbal Mondragón (2B) 5–0
T 9 Marco Ruidíaz Marco Ruidíaz (HR) 6–0
T 14 Aníbal Mondragón Marco Ruidíaz (3B) 7–0
T 16 Leonel Dávila Aníbal Mondragón (3B) 8–0
T 18 Ahkhari Goss Pervis Cubillán (2B) 9–0
T 21 Marco Ruidíaz Ahkhari Goss (3B) 10–0
T 23 Leonel Dávila John Diatta (3B) 11–0
T 24 Markeylin Martinho Leonel Dávila (2B) 12–0
T 24 Markeylin Martinho Markeylin Martinho (HR) 13–0
T 24 Wesly Otamendi Markeylin Martinho (3B) 14–0
B 0 Keshav Atehortua Israel Fernández (3B) 14–1
B 0 Ludlow MacCracken Reed Lettiere (3B) 14–2
B 7 Roy Hulbert Yoshimar Najar (3B) 14–3
B 9 Cary Schwinger Cary Schwinger (HR) 14–4
B 14 Zane Staten Cary Schwinger (3B) 14–5
B 19 Roy Hulbert Cary Schwinger (3B) 14–6
B 22 Tobias DeLong Tobias DeLong (3B) 14–7
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Rockies — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 6 1B · 4 XBH · 2 HR
386' 403' 371' Ahkhari Goss — single · EV 98 mph · LA +5° · 93 ft Pervis Cubillán — double · EV 95 mph · LA +24° · 266 ft Jeyland Chaves — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +34° · 262 ft Aníbal Mondragón — single · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 141 ft Wesly Otamendi — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +20° · 197 ft Oren Robles — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -19° · 63 ft John Diatta — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 175 ft Markeylin Martinho — double · EV 106 mph · LA +16° · 234 ft Marco Ruidíaz — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +40° · 480 ft Ahkhari Goss — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +12° · 104 ft Aníbal Mondragón — single · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 81 ft Pervis Cubillán — single · EV 82 mph · LA +22° · 188 ft Leonel Dávila — single · EV 95 mph · LA +8° · 106 ft Wesly Otamendi — error · EV 104 mph · LA +24° · 320 ft John Diatta — line_out · EV 89 mph · LA +21° · 213 ft Ahkhari Goss — double · EV 109 mph · LA +16° · 257 ft Leonel Dávila — error · EV 79 mph · LA +24° · 189 ft Markeylin Martinho — hr · EV 112 mph · LA +26° · 397 ft Marco Ruidíaz — single · EV 79 mph · LA +2° · 75 ft Jeyland Chaves — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 88 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 6 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
386' 403' 371' Reed Lettiere — single · EV 92 mph · LA -22° · 87 ft Yoshimar Najar — single · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 170 ft Ludlow MacCracken — error · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 88 ft Tobias DeLong — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +30° · 93 ft Roy Hulbert — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +30° · 291 ft Hal Fehr — fly_out · EV 55 mph · LA +33° · 111 ft Cary Schwinger — hr · EV 98 mph · LA +30° · 336 ft Israel Fernández — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Zane Staten — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Hal Fehr — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA +4° · 51 ft Ludlow MacCracken — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -20° · 51 ft Reed Lettiere — single · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 172 ft Keshav Atehortua — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +1° · 58 ft Cary Schwinger — double · EV 96 mph · LA +16° · 191 ft Yoshimar Najar — triple_play · EV 69 mph · LA -4° · 65 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 55 mph · LA +18° · 73 ft Tobias DeLong — single · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 138 ft Hal Fehr — single · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 100 ft Cary Schwinger — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 201 ft Keshav Atehortua — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 149 ft Hal Fehr — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA -9° · 73 ft Tobias DeLong — single · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 163 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -30° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
80% deserve-to-win  ·  14.5 expected runs
actual 14 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 19.9 est bases + 10 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 23.0 (+3.1 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 2 CS (-0.9 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
John Diatta 100 / +13° Oppo Triple 1.1 → 3 +1.89
Markeylin Martinho 112 / +26° Pull Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.82
Wesly Otamendi 104 / +24° Oppo Reached on Error 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Wesly Otamendi 88 / +20° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
John Diatta 89 / +21° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Padres
20% deserve-to-win  ·  7.1 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 10.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+1.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cary Schwinger 98 / +30° Pull Home Run 1.1 → 4 +2.92
Cary Schwinger 92 / +18° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Cary Schwinger 96 / +16° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.89
Roy Hulbert 92 / +30° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Reed Lettiere 92 / -22° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
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