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Athletics 10, Cubs 7                                         2026-07-04 · #991
at Abdurakhmanov Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 7    7    5    0
Oakland                10   10    7    2

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Wambach     nf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  a-Seol    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Santana     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Palermo     ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Shurtleff   lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Coto        c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  1b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Heinze  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
McCullough  rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Hollowe pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Saprissa    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kurth       cf ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Wimer       p  ......    2   2   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.500
  d-Segovia ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  29   7   5   1   0   0   7   4  15   0   1  0.172
  2B: Sarkissian (1).
  CS: Palermo (6), Hollowell (8).
  HBP: Palermo (4), Wimer (1).
  a-Struck out for Wambach in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Sarkissian in the 7th.
  c-Ran for McCullough in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Hollowell in the 7th.

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sinclair    1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Banuelos    3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Korda       lf ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Moros       rf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Molina  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Noel        2b ......    4   2   2   0   0   0   3   0   2   0   0  0.500
Sutton      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sawchuk     cf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Gerlach ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Zago        ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Viscarr pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Curran      p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Caspers pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Rodrigu ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Diémé   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ghannam     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  32  10   7   3   0   0  10   3  16   0   0  0.219
  2B: Moros (18), Sawchuk (5), Gerlach (6).
  SB: Ghannam (3).
  E: Noel (2), Gerlach (6).
  HBP: Sinclair (3), Zago (2).
  a-Struck out for Moros in the 8th.
  b-Batted for Sawchuk in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Zago in the 5th.
  d-Ran in the 3rd.
  e-Batted in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Gerlach in the 5th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wimer (L, 2-13) .....    16   10  37%    6    5    5    1    2    0   52    -
Bay-Regula ..........    16   12  44%    1    4    4    2   10    0   57  1-0
Espinosa ............     5    5  19%    0    1    1    0    4    0   22  1-1

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Curran (W, 11-2) ....    23   18  67%    4    3    1    2   10    0   84    -
Verón ...............     7    5  19%    1    3    3    1    2    0   17  2-1
Appiah (F, 17) ......     5    4  15%    0    1    1    1    3    0   25  2-1

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wimer (Outs 1-10) → Bay-Regula (Outs 11-22) → Espinosa (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Coto (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Palermo (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kurth (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | McCullough (Outs 1-27)

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Curran (Outs 1-18) → Verón (Outs 19-23) → Appiah (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sutton (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sinclair (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Noel (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Zago (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Korda (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sawchuk (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Moros (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Athletics (home) batted first; Cubs batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM PT. Weather: 74°F · Wind cross · Overcast. seed 20262.
  Powerplays: Cubs — Wambach NF (O3), Seol NF
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 1 Mirko Moros Cannon Sinclair (2B) 0–1
B 1 Mirko Moros Randy Korda (1B) 0–2
B 8 Randy Korda Val Caspersen (2B) 0–3
B 9 Chet Noel Randy Korda (2B) 0–4
B 10 Frank Gerlach Chet Noel (1B) 0–5
B 13 Marcos Ghannam Mathis Diémé (3B) 0–6
B 14 Chet Noel Shane Curran (3B) 0–7
B 14 Chet Noel Leonel Viscarra (2B) 0–8
B 20 Mathis Diémé Marcos Ghannam (3B) 0–9
B 26 Val Caspersen Chet Noel (3B) 0–10
T 11 Samuel Sarkissian Brad Wimer (2B) 1–10
T 12 Ivan Saprissa Tomas Heinze (3B) 2–10
T 18 Harold Palermo Brad Wimer (2B) 3–10
T 20 Davion Kurth Kendrick Wambach (2B) 4–10
T 20 Brad Wimer Harold Palermo (3B) 5–10
T 23 Teófilo Segovia Davion Kurth (2B) 6–10
T 25 Jaume Santana Davion Kurth (3B) 7–10
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 350' · CF 450' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Cavernous.
Death Valley
Cubs — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Bryce Shurtleff — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +13° · 93 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +8° · 106 ft Brad Wimer — single · EV 82 mph · LA +11° · 101 ft Samuel Sarkissian — double · EV 100 mph · LA +16° · 211 ft Josh McCullough — error · EV 73 mph · LA +19° · 131 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -1° · 59 ft Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 87 mph · LA +6° · 82 ft Harold Palermo — single · EV 82 mph · LA -7° · 78 ft Brad Wimer — fly_out · EV 107 mph · LA +31° · 403 ft Teófilo Segovia — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 105 ft Ivan Saprissa — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +44° · 201 ft Davion Kurth — error · EV 74 mph · LA -15° · 71 ft Jaume Santana — fly_out · EV 74 mph · LA +28° · 183 ft
Athletics — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Cannon Sinclair — single · EV 100 mph · LA -14° · 95 ft Stefan Banuelos — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 278 ft Mirko Moros — double · EV 92 mph · LA +28° · 279 ft Arnold Sutton — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +13° · 112 ft Ahmad Sawchuk — double · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 306 ft Alex Zago — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -5° · 70 ft Shane Curran — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 193 ft Randy Korda — single · EV 88 mph · LA -24° · 84 ft Frank Gerlach — double · EV 119 mph · LA +18° · 338 ft Mathis Diémé — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -12° · 81 ft Stefan Banuelos — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +7° · 84 ft Mirko Moros — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft Chet Noel — single · EV 94 mph · LA -11° · 89 ft Val Caspersen — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 165 ft Chet Noel — single · EV 100 mph · LA -15° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
24% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +3.1 vs expected
contact: 7.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brad Wimer 107 / +31° Center Out 2.0 → 0 -2.03
Ivan Saprissa 95 / +8° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.11
Samuel Sarkissian 100 / +16° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.75
Bryce Shurtleff 87 / +6° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Harold Palermo 82 / -7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Athletics
76% deserve-to-win  ·  6.9 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +3.1 vs expected
contact: 10.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-0.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stefan Banuelos 100 / +22° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Mirko Moros 92 / +28° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Shane Curran 100 / +14° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Ahmad Sawchuk 100 / +25° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.66
Val Caspersen 81 / +19° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
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