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Padres 6, Rockies 5                                          2026-07-04 · #992
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Colorado                5    5    5    0
San Diego               6    6    9    0

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ruidíaz     ss ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Goss        lf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Denson      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Herr    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alderman    rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Mondragón   c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Ibarra      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Diatta  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.000
Touchard    2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Chaves      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Otamendi    cf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  c-Martinh ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Valencia    j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Dowell      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Oh          j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  30   5   5   3   0   0   5   3   8   0   0  0.167
  2B: Ruidíaz (7), Goss (29), Otamendi (4).
  SB: Valencia (1), Oh (1).
  GIDP: Mondragón (2).
  a-Ran for Denson in the 5th.
  b-Grounded out for Ibarra in the 7th.
  c-Grounded out in the 8th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fernández   lf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.667
Lettiere    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Najar       rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Atehortua   1b ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
MacCracken  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Alemu   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Schwinger   c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
DeLong      ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Wilcox      p  ......    3   2   3   0   0   0   1   1   0   1   0  1.000
Fehr        cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Gleeson ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Pearman     j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   6   9   2   0   0   5   7   8   2   0  0.310
  2B: Fernández (14), Atehortua (7).
  CS: DeLong (1).
  GIDP: Pearman (1).
  Squeeze: Najar.
  a-Walked for MacCracken in the 7th.
  b-Walked in the 9th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Denson (L, 11-5) ....    20   14  52%    8    5    5    2    3    0   91    -
Bahr ................    15   13  48%    1    1    1    5    5    0   53  1-0

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wilcox (W, 12-2) ....    33   27 100%    5    5    1    3    8    0  117    -

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Denson (Outs 1-14) → Bahr (Outs 15-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mondragón (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Chaves (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Touchard (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ibarra (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Alderman (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Wilcox (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | DeLong (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fernández (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Najar (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Rockies batted second.
  First pitch 1:35 PM PT. Weather: 84°F · Wind out · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 893208.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 6 Hal Fehr Bertram Wilcox (2B) 0–1
B 7 Bertram Wilcox Keshav Atehortua (3B) 0–2
B 8 Cary Schwinger Hal Fehr (3B) 0–3
B 12 Israel Fernández Bertram Wilcox (3B) 0–4
B 13 Hal Fehr Keshav Atehortua (3B) 0–5
B 26 Huntley Cleveland Cary Schwinger (2B) 0–6
T 8 Wesly Otamendi Aníbal Mondragón (2B) 1–6
T 14 Ahkhari Goss Marco Ruidíaz (2B) 2–6
T 19 John Diatta Ronald Herr (3B) 3–6
T 19 John Diatta Ahkhari Goss (2B) 4–6
T 26 Allen Alderman Vladimir Valencia (3B) 5–6
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Rockies — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 2 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Marco Ruidíaz — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +3° · 78 ft Aníbal Mondragón — single · EV 75 mph · LA +23° · 160 ft Jahmari Touchard — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -29° · 56 ft Jeyland Chaves — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -14° · 66 ft John Diatta — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Vladimir Valencia — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Wesly Otamendi — double · EV 89 mph · LA +23° · 233 ft Jeyland Chaves — error · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Aníbal Mondragón — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 74 ft Marco Ruidíaz — double · EV 92 mph · LA +42° · 338 ft Allen Alderman — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +39° · 256 ft Ahkhari Goss — single · EV 91 mph · LA +2° · 86 ft Ronald Herr — line_out · EV 54 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Allen Alderman — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA +2° · 64 ft Marco Ruidíaz — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +37° · 229 ft Jeyland Chaves — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +54° · 266 ft Wesly Otamendi — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +13° · 125 ft Ahkhari Goss — double · EV 86 mph · LA +46° · 298 ft Allen Alderman — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -8° · 56 ft Reed Lettiere — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 162 ft Yoshimar Najar — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +25° · 218 ft Keshav Atehortua — double · EV 93 mph · LA +27° · 282 ft Ludlow MacCracken — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +9° · 65 ft Tobias DeLong — single · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft Hal Fehr — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -10° · 66 ft Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 73 mph · LA +19° · 132 ft Tobias DeLong — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Cary Schwinger — single · EV 81 mph · LA +20° · 171 ft Yoshimar Najar — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 118 ft Israel Fernández — double · EV 88 mph · LA +40° · 302 ft Hal Fehr — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -1° · 91 ft Mark Pearman — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -6° · 49 ft Huntley Cleveland — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Bertram Wilcox — single · EV 90 mph · LA +0° · 85 ft Israel Fernández — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 110 ft Bertram Wilcox — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +36° · 220 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
37% deserve-to-win  ·  4.7 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 7.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+0.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+1.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ahkhari Goss 86 / +46° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Wesly Otamendi 89 / +23° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Marco Ruidíaz 92 / +42° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.88
Wesly Otamendi 86 / +13° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Ahkhari Goss 91 / +2° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Padres
63% deserve-to-win  ·  6.1 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 7.9 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+2.1 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Keshav Atehortua 93 / +27° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Tobias DeLong 76 / +0° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.74
Bertram Wilcox 90 / +0° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Reed Lettiere 76 / +22° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Hal Fehr 96 / -1° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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