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Red Sox 6, Canaries 1                                        2026-07-04 · #993
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Boston                  6    6    3    0
New Jersey              1    1    6    2

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Rowley  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Bektas      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Pezzell ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Venegas     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Merrill ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Núñez       1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Echever pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cameron     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Saravia     ss ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Cordano     cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pope        3b ......    3   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Castillo    p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1   .000
  e-Hodges  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Falby   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Norton  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Inniss      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   6   3   1   0   0   5   5  11   0   1  0.107
  2B: Saravia (10).
  GIDP: Pope (1).
  a-Walked for Suazo in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Bektas in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Venegas in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Núñez in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Castillo in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 3rd.
  g-Batted in the 3rd.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Morrison    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kramer      2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Brickha pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kerr        rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Campos      1b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Braun       3b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Cordero     c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Hlavack pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Fishbach    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Carmona ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bennette    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Tejeda      lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Ali     ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Woodall     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   1   6   2   0   0   1   5   2   0   0  0.250
  2B: Campos (6), Ali (35).
  SB: Brickhandler (18).
  CS: Kerr (9), Campos (2), Hlavacka (11).
  E: Brickhandler (6), Kramer (7).
  HBP: Brickhandler (4).
  GIDP: Morrison (1), Braun (1), Carmona (5).
  a-Ran for Kramer in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Cordero in the 4th.
  c-Batted for Fishbach in the 5th.
  d-Batted for Hlavacka in the 5th.

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo (W, 2-0) ...    24   21  78%    6    1    1    3    2    0   81    -
Lateef (F, 6) .......     6    6  22%    0    0    0    2    0    0   17  2-0

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bennette (L, 5-0) ...    26   19  70%    3    6    6    5    8    0   85    -
Ortiz ...............     7    8  30%    0    0    0    0    3    0   22  2-0

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-21) → Lateef (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Bektas (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Pope (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Venegas (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cordano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-27)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bennette (Outs 1-19) → Ortiz (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Campos (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Braun (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Morrison (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tejeda (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Red Sox batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 87°F · Wind in · Clear · Humid. seed 41971.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 5 Ferdi Pope Walter Núñez (3B) 1–0
T 5 Andrés Castillo Diego Saravia (3B) 2–0
T 10 Diego Saravia Ferdi Pope (3B) 3–0
T 12 Dexter Inniss Denis Echeverría (3B) 4–0
T 15 Diego Saravia Ferdi Pope (3B) 5–0
T 19 Henri Merrill Jacob Hodges (3B) 6–0
B 12 Jesse Woodall Hugo Campos (3B) 6–1
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Red Sox — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Manuel Suazo — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -11° · 85 ft Kervin Venegas — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA +17° · 144 ft Walter Núñez — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 88 ft Tony Cameron — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +12° · 132 ft Diego Saravia — double · EV 102 mph · LA +36° · 393 ft Vinicius Cordano — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -7° · 59 ft Ferdi Pope — error · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Michail Norton — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -7° · 49 ft Denis Echeverría — ground_out · EV 62 mph · LA -6° · 59 ft Diego Saravia — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft Henri Merrill — error · EV 89 mph · LA +15° · 160 ft Teófilo Pezzella — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Diego Saravia — single · EV 91 mph · LA +22° · 228 ft Ferdi Pope — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft Vinicius Cordano — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 176 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
22 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Andrea Kramer — single · EV 83 mph · LA +8° · 77 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 93 mph · LA +42° · 344 ft Gianluca Braun — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA -27° · 63 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 80 mph · LA +17° · 141 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +3° · 62 ft Warren Bennette — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -3° · 63 ft Hugo Campos — double · EV 96 mph · LA +20° · 241 ft Jesse Woodall — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 189 ft Rodmond Ali — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +30° · 216 ft Boris Carmona — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +36° · 244 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 64 mph · LA +33° · 148 ft Gianluca Braun — single · EV 52 mph · LA +16° · 60 ft Warren Bennette — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 286 ft Leonardo Tejeda — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 338 ft Ulises Morrison — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 148 ft Hugo Campos — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Rodmond Ali — double · EV 93 mph · LA +15° · 173 ft Boris Carmona — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA +1° · 53 ft Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 101 mph · LA +8° · 115 ft Leonardo Tejeda — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -12° · 53 ft Ulises Morrison — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA -7° · 53 ft Leonardo Tejeda — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +20° · 121 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Red Sox
34% deserve-to-win  ·  4.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +1.1 vs expected
contact: 7.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-3.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tony Cameron 91 / +12° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Henri Merrill 89 / +15° Pull Reached on Error 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Kervin Venegas 80 / +17° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.63
Walter Núñez 76 / +11° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Ferdi Pope 76 / +15° Oppo Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.48
Canaries
66% deserve-to-win  ·  6.7 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -5.7 vs expected
contact: 10.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 3 CS (-1.6 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jerome Kerr 101 / +8° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.25
Rodmond Ali 93 / +15° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.17
Leonardo Tejeda 92 / +44° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.12
Ulises Morrison 92 / +13° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.83
Hugo Campos 96 / +20° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
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