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Royals 1, Reds 1  (4 SI)                                     2026-07-04 · #997
at Sokk Bowl
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Cincinnati              1      0    1    4    0
Kansas City             1      0    1    3    0

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Subhash     ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Gayton      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-David   ph ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    1b ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Corozo  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Levy        rf ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.200
Dilworth    c  ......    5   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.200
Villalobos  lf ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Pittman     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Suarez  pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Agnew       p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  d-Ribera  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Goodwin ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Lyman   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  40   1   4   0   0   0   1   2  15   0   0  0.100

  a-Batted for Gayton in the 5th.
  b-Grounded out for Tsoubanos in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Pittman in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Agnew in the 7th.
  e-Batted in the 6th.
  f-Ran in the 12th.

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vera        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Ekic    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Tanguilig   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Bortolo ph ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rosales     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Fontes  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Linnehan    c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Talavera    ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Monson  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hsia        rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Sabella ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Selden      2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  f-Altamir pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Devens      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Graham  ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Li          p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Savarin pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  i-Inglis  pr ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  j-Farley  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  k-Gregory ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Coates      j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Press       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  39   1   3   0   0   0   1   2  15   0   0  0.077
  SB: Savarino 3 (13), Coates (2).
  CS: Tanguilig (10), Savarino (11), Farley (5), Coates (3).
  GIDP: Bortolotti (5).
  a-Grounded out for Vera in the 6th.
  b-Batted for Tanguilig in the 6th.
  c-Grounded out for Rosales in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Talavera in the 5th.
  e-Singled for Hsia in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Selden in the 4th.
  g-Batted for Devens in the 4th.
  h-Ran for Sabella in the 5th.
  i-Ran for Fontes in the 6th.
  j-Ran for Ekic in the 6th.
  k-Batted for Farley in the 6th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Agnew ...............    41   39 144%    3    1    1    2   15    0  163    -

ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Li ..................    41   39 144%    4    1    1    2   16    0  145    -

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-39)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Agnew (Outs 1-39)
CATCHER (C)       | Dilworth (Outs 1-39)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-39)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pittman (Outs 1-39)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-39)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-39)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Villalobos (Outs 1-39)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-39)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Levy (Outs 1-39)

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-39)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Li (Outs 1-39)
CATCHER (C)       | Linnehan (Outs 1-39)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-39)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Selden (Outs 1-39)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Devens (Outs 1-39)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Talavera (Outs 1-39)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tanguilig (Outs 1-39)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Vera (Outs 1-39)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hsia (Outs 1-39)

  Batting order: Royals (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  Super-innings: 4.
  First pitch 7:05 PM CT. Weather: 92°F · Wind in · Overcast. seed 359474.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O25)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 6.00
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 25 Ramon Altamirano Devron Savarino (3B) 0–1 —
T 26 Jaxson Goodwin Zachary Subhash (2B) 1–1 3.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 6.00
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sokk Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 278' · CF 521' · RF 288' · 32' wall). Bathtub.
Wire Basket
Reds — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
278' 521' 288' Wall 32' Jackson Levy — fly_out · EV 65 mph · LA +29° · 143 ft Emmanuel Murakami — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -9° · 65 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +8° · 78 ft Colton Agnew — ground_out · EV 54 mph · LA -7° · 51 ft Jaxson Goodwin — line_out · EV 69 mph · LA +21° · 127 ft Carter Suarez — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +1° · 58 ft Colton Agnew — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft Devron Villalobos — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 80 ft Blaise Dilworth — single · EV 79 mph · LA -1° · 75 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -3° · 57 ft Zachary Subhash — single · EV 83 mph · LA +13° · 122 ft Jaxson Goodwin — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Carter Suarez — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +19° · 151 ft Devron Villalobos — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +22° · 179 ft Colton Agnew — single · EV 86 mph · LA +16° · 156 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 71 ft Jackson Levy — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -4° · 55 ft Bret David — error · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Jackson Levy — single · EV 68 mph · LA -5° · 64 ft Blaise Dilworth — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -9° · 68 ft Devron Villalobos — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft
Royals — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
278' 521' 288' Wall 32' Landon Tanguilig — fielders_choice · EV 54 mph · LA -12° · 51 ft Chris Selden — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA +2° · 60 ft Ricky Li — fly_out · EV 61 mph · LA +40° · 146 ft Efraín Sabella — single · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Yamil Fontes — fielders_choice · EV 54 mph · LA -12° · 52 ft Barry Bortolotti — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Tripp Ekic — fielders_choice · EV 56 mph · LA -6° · 53 ft Adalid Coates — single · EV 52 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Chico Press — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +24° · 170 ft Ramon Altamirano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 81 ft Chris Selden — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Barry Bortolotti — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +30° · 199 ft Kael Monson — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -1° · 55 ft George Graham — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Ramon Altamirano — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft George Graham — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +32° · 277 ft Connor Inglis — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +5° · 83 ft Rich Linnehan — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA -2° · 95 ft Ricky Li — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA +6° · 60 ft Barry Bortolotti — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 76 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
92% deserve-to-win  ·  3.2 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.2 vs expected
contact: 6.8 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.8 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jackson Levy 68 / -5° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Blaise Dilworth 79 / -1° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Devron Villalobos 81 / +22° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Zachary Subhash 82 / +8° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Carter Suarez 79 / +19° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Royals
8% deserve-to-win  ·  1.0 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  as expected
contact: 6.0 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-3.0 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 4 CS (-1.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
George Graham 92 / +34° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Efraín Sabella 76 / -2° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Adalid Coates 52 / +14° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Chico Press 76 / +24° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Ramon Altamirano 76 / +10° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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