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Cubs 8, Nationals 7                                         2026-07-19 · #1112
at Tannery Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 8    8    8    0
Washington              7    7    7    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Casey       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Segovia ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
May         3b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Myers       c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  1.000
  b-Hollowe pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lamas       2b ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Sarkissian  1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Heinze  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Seol        lf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Lamas   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Maxson      rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Mueller     cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Bailey      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   1  0.000
  e-Santana ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Palermo pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Nealon  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Sapriss ph ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  i-Wambach pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  22   8   8   2   0   0   7   5   7   0   2  0.364
  2B: Lamas (1), Saprissa (6).
  SB: Lamas (8), May (8), Palermo (4).
  CS: Lamas (1).
  GIDP: Maxson (2).
  a-Grounded out for Casey in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Myers in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Sarkissian in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Seol in the 7th.
  e-Singled in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Santana in the 5th.
  g-Walked for Heinze in the 7th.
  h-Doubled for Lamas in the 7th.
  i-Ran for Nealon in the 7th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    3   2   2   1   0   1   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Miguelito   lf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
Giroud      ss ......    4   2   2   0   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Devezin     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Thompkins   c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cheng       3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Morel       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     cf ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Hack        p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   7   7   2   0   2   6   4  10   0   0  0.250
  2B: Pastore (10), Fábrega (4).
  HR: Pastore (6), off Sprengelmeyer; Giroud (1), off Bailey.
  CS: Cheng (5).


CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bailey ..............    14    9   44  3.1    5    5    4    2    4    1    -
Sprengelmeye (W, 3-7)     16   17   55  3.4    2    2    2    2    5    1  2-1
Espinosa ............     1    1    5  5.0    0    0    0    0    1    0    -

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hack (L, 4-14) ......    27   20  102  3.8    8    8    8    5    7    0    -

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bailey (Outs 1-9) → Sprengelmeyer (Outs 10-26) → Espinosa (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Myers (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Lamas (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Casey (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Mueller (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Maxson (Outs 1-27)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-20)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Hack (Outs 1-20)
CATCHER (C)       | Thompkins (Outs 1-20)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morel (Outs 1-20)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-20)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-20)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Giroud (Outs 1-20)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-20)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-20)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-20)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted first; Cubs batted second.
  First pitch 7:10 PM ET. Weather: 98°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Humid. seed 422157.
  Powerplays: Cubs — Saprissa NF (O7)
  Walk-Back runs: off Bailey 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.20
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Óscar Giroud Marcos Pastore (1B) 0–1 —
B 1 Óscar Giroud Óscar Giroud (HR) 0–2 —
B 5 Isaac Fábrega Óscar Giroud (3B) 0–3 —
B 6 Marcos Pastore Marco Hack (2B) 0–4 —
B 9 Cheng-wei Cheng Devron San Miguelito (2B) 0–5 —
B 10 Marco Hack Cheng-wei Cheng (3B) 0–6 —
B 22 Marcos Pastore Marcos Pastore (HR) 0–7 —
T 2 Mikel Lamas Erick May (3B) 1–7 0.84
T 8 Michael Mueller Tomas Heinze (2B) 2–7 0.95
T 11 Mikel Lamas Víctor Lamas (2B) 3–7 0.94
T 11 Floyd Myers Mikel Lamas (2B) 4–7 0.75
T 18 Ivan Saprissa Kendrick Wambach (1B) 5–7 1.00
T 18 Nathaniel Bailey Ivan Saprissa (3B) 6–7 0.67
T 19 Erick May Hezekiah Maxson (3B) 7–7 0.38
T 19 Erick May Michael Mueller (3B) 8–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.20
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Cubs — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Erick May — single · EV 95 mph · LA -4° · 90 ft Mikel Lamas — single · EV 89 mph · LA +19° · 192 ft Nathaniel Bailey — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA +9° · 61 ft Floyd Myers — single · EV 85 mph · LA -10° · 81 ft Teófilo Segovia — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -18° · 84 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 84 ft Maurice Hollowell — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 172 ft Ivan Saprissa — double · EV 99 mph · LA +28° · 322 ft Michael Mueller — single · EV 75 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft Hezekiah Maxson — double_play · EV 78 mph · LA -17° · 74 ft Yong-soo Seol — single · EV 88 mph · LA -14° · 84 ft Mikel Lamas — double · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 276 ft Erick May — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -0° · 92 ft Erick May — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -5° · 84 ft Erick May — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -13° · 80 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 2 HR
331' 438' 348' Marcos Pastore — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Óscar Giroud — hr · EV 109 mph · LA +38° · 460 ft Yoel Morel — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA -14° · 67 ft Isaac Fábrega — single · EV 91 mph · LA -16° · 87 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — single · EV 110 mph · LA +17° · 270 ft Marcos Pastore — double · EV 114 mph · LA +17° · 296 ft Óscar Giroud — single · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 308 ft Yoel Morel — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 126 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +18° · 139 ft Isaac Fábrega — double · EV 102 mph · LA +15° · 201 ft Óscar Giroud — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +8° · 90 ft Damion Thompkins — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -12° · 89 ft Marco Hack — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +4° · 93 ft Marcos Pastore — hr · EV 113 mph · LA +26° · 401 ft Óscar Giroud — ground_out · EV 103 mph · LA -10° · 98 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
45% deserve-to-win  ·  7.5 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +0.5 vs expected
contact: 8.9 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (+1.1 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Maurice Hollowell 100 / +13° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Ivan Saprissa 99 / +28° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Floyd Myers 85 / -10° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Yong-soo Seol 88 / -14° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Jaume Santana 88 / -5° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.61
Nationals
55% deserve-to-win  ·  8.2 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 16.9 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (-1.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Yoel Morel 100 / +9° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Marcos Pastore 113 / +26° Pull Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Óscar Giroud 90 / +8° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Isaac Fábrega 102 / +15° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Cheng-wei Cheng 110 / +17° Oppo Single 1.7 → 1 -0.72
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