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Marlins 8, Dodgers 7                                        2026-07-24 · #1156
at Wold Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   8    8    6    0
Los Angeles             7    7    7    1

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Vildoza     ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Enquist     cf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.333
  a-Narazak pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Hester      p  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Altamirano  1b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Beasley pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Mangin      c  ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Suggs       3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dibert      2b ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Chieh-yu    lf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  20   8   6   3   0   0   8   2   9   0   0  0.300
  2B: Altamirano (5), Dibert (4), Chieh-yu (10).
  SB: Chieh-yu (9), Beasley (5).
  HBP: Altamirano (4).
  a-Ran for Enquist in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Altamirano in the 5th.

DODGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Heinrich    p  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Martin      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Maier       c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Eggleston   3b ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  1.000
Gerardy     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ochoa       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Swanson     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Guarnera    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Bertram pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Garcés      1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Lepchen ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Chang   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Querrey pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Monroe      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Abbott      j  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  1.000
Totals                  27   7   7   0   0   0   6   9   8   1   0  0.259
  E: Guarnera (1).
  GIDP: Ochoa (5), Swanson (4), Lepchenko (3), Abbott (1).
  a-Ran for Guarnera in the 3rd.
  b-Batted in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 4th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hester (W, 2-4) .....    31   21  78%    5    6    6    8    7    0  112    -
Entringer ...........     5    6  22%    2    1    1    1    1    0   15  2-1

DODGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Heinrich ............    17   11  41%    2    5    5    1    8    0   59    -
Tak (L, 3-1) ........     4    2   7%    2    2    2    1    1    0   16  2-1

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hester (Outs 1-21) → Entringer (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vildoza (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

DODGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-13)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Heinrich (Outs 1-11) → Tak (Outs 12-13)
CATCHER (C)       | Maier (Outs 1-13)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Garcés (Outs 1-13)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Swanson (Outs 1-13)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Eggleston (Outs 1-13)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ochoa (Outs 1-13)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Martin (Outs 1-13)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guarnera (Outs 1-13)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Gerardy (Outs 1-13)

  Batting order: Dodgers (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 7:35 PM PT. Weather: 89°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 625272.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.09
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 2 Tanner Gerardy Prakash Heinrich (2B) 0–1 —
B 8 Berkeley Abbott Dylan Bertrams (3B) 0–2 —
B 10 Lenny Eggleston Chien-hao Chang (3B) 0–3 —
B 17 Bautista Ochoa Andy Lepchenko (3B) 0–4 —
B 19 Dylan Bertrams Daylan Querrey (3B) 0–5 —
B 20 Wallace Monroe Lenny Eggleston (3B) 0–6 —
B 24 Berkeley Abbott Tony Garcés (3B) 0–7 —
T 5 Alex Dibert Devon Mangin (2B) 1–7 0.95
T 5 Alex Dibert Wallace Enterline (1B) 2–7 0.82
T 6 Montavious Chieh-yu Alex Dibert (2B) 3–7 0.71
T 11 Jason Enquist Devon Mangin (3B) 4–7 0.75
T 11 Jason Enquist Jean Altamirano (2B) 5–7 0.56
T 11 Jason Enquist Anthonie Hester (2B) 6–7 0.38
T 13 Jean Altamirano Keishiro Narazaki (1B) 7–7 0.21
T 13 Máximo Vildoza Alexander Beasley (3B) 8–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.09
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Wold Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 338' · CF 395' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 105 mph · LA +2° · 99 ft Devon Mangin — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 81 ft Wallace Enterline — error · EV 68 mph · LA +5° · 65 ft Alex Dibert — double · EV 98 mph · LA +20° · 247 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — double · EV 114 mph · LA +24° · 384 ft Devon Mangin — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA -14° · 81 ft Jason Enquist — error · EV 97 mph · LA +14° · 177 ft Jean Altamirano — double · EV 98 mph · LA +29° · 326 ft Jason Enquist — single · EV 78 mph · LA +0° · 74 ft
Dodgers — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 7 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
338' 395' 346' Prakash Heinrich — single · EV 52 mph · LA +25° · 84 ft Tanner Gerardy — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -9° · 88 ft Bautista Ochoa — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Wyatt Guarnera — fielders_choice · EV 64 mph · LA -7° · 61 ft Wallace Monroe — line_out · EV 59 mph · LA +23° · 101 ft Berkeley Abbott — infield_single · EV 73 mph · LA +6° · 70 ft Lenny Eggleston — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -0° · 65 ft Dylan Bertrams — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Andy Lepchenko — single · EV 84 mph · LA -20° · 80 ft Prakash Heinrich — single · EV 83 mph · LA +7° · 79 ft Quentin Maier — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -6° · 57 ft Wallace Monroe — fly_out · EV 67 mph · LA +35° · 169 ft Andy Lepchenko — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -4° · 49 ft Lenny Eggleston — single · EV 53 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft Berkeley Abbott — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 123 ft Berkeley Abbott — double_play · EV 67 mph · LA -6° · 64 ft Tanner Gerardy — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 175 ft Colton Swanson — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
45% deserve-to-win  ·  4.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +3.4 vs expected
contact: 6.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+0.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jason Enquist 97 / +14° Center Reached on Error 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Jean Altamirano 98 / +29° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Alex Dibert 98 / +20° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Jason Enquist 78 / +0° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Jason Enquist 105 / +2° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Dodgers
55% deserve-to-win  ·  5.1 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +1.9 vs expected
contact: 4.7 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+2.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Lenny Eggleston 68 / +0° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Prakash Heinrich 52 / +25° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.87
Tanner Gerardy 92 / +16° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Berkeley Abbott 73 / +6° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Prakash Heinrich 83 / +7° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.70
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