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Beavers 12, Athletics 11                                    2026-07-24 · #1158
at The Oval
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Oakland                11      0   11   13    2
Portland               12      -   12   10    0

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fehr        cf ......    2   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Caspersen   c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Sinclair    1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Crutchfield 2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Pagán   ph ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Sutton      rf ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-DeLong  ph ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  0.667
Rodrigues   3b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
  c-Molina  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sawchuk     lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Korda   pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Zago        ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Diémé   ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
MacPhie     p  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   1  0.250
  f-Leat    pr ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  1.000
  g-Noel    pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Weeks   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ghannam     j  ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Benítez     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  11  13   4   0   0  11   4   6   0   3  0.406
  2B: Fehr (1), MacPhie (1), Leat (11), DeLong (2).
  SB: Molina (1).
  E: Crutchfield (2), Noel (3).
  HBP: Sawchuk (1).
  a-Batted for Crutchfield in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Sutton in the 4th.
  c-Singled for Rodrigues in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Sawchuk in the 2nd.
  e-Batted for Zago in the 5th.
  f-Ran in the 3rd.
  g-Ran for Molina in the 4th.
  h-Ran in the 6th.

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Guerra      cf ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Okey    pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.333
Rabess      rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Giammalva   p  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   1  0.000
Clement     lf ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.500
Turenne     ss ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Maripán     c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Vahaly  pr ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Aktaş       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Waston  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Zamora  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Xue     pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Smith   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Velazquez   j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Redmayne    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  33  12  10   5   0   0  11   7  10   0   1  0.303
  2B: Guerra (10), Tessema (13), Vahaly (13), Clement (11), Maripán (5).
  SB: Clement (9).
  GIDP: Giammalva (1).
  Squeeze: Tessema.
  a-Ran for Guerra in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Maripán in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Aktaş in the 2nd.
  d-Walked in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 6th.
  f-Ran for Zamora in the 6th.

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
MacPhie (L, 3-4) ....     8    2   7%    5    4    3    1    1    0   30    -
Suárez ..............    15   14  52%    2    2    2    0    8    0   57  1-0
Woodard .............     5    1   4%    1    2    2    3    1    0   22  1-0
Delfino .............     4    3  11%    1    3    3    1    0    0    4  3-2
Appiah ..............     7    7  26%    1    1    1    2    0    0   28  2-1

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Giammalva (W, 4-12) .    29   21  78%   10    9    9    3    4    0   90    -
Kamiwazumi ..........     8    6  22%    3    2    2    1    2    0   34  2-1

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | MacPhie (Outs 1-2) → Suárez (Outs 3-16) → Woodard (Outs 17-17) → Delfino (Outs 18-20) → Appiah (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Caspersen (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sinclair (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Crutchfield (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rodrigues (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Zago (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Sawchuk (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sutton (Outs 1-27)

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Giammalva (Outs 1-21) → Kamiwazumi (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Maripán (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Aktaş (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Turenne (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rabess (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Beavers (home) batted second; Athletics batted first.
  Seconds: OAK o26 (11-0).
  First pitch 7:35 PM PT. Weather: 85°F · Wind in · Overcast · Humid. seed 390774.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Zamora NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.33    Peak faced 1.80
    27 outs left: 1.33
    18 outs left: 1.33
     9 outs left: 1.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 3 Mauricio Rodrigues Hal Fehr (3B) 1–0 —
T 4 Scott MacPhie Arnold Sutton (3B) 2–0 —
T 8 Modesto Pagán Randy Korda (3B) 3–0 —
T 15 Martin Leat Chet Noel (3B) 4–0 —
T 17 Tobias DeLong Marcos Ghannam (3B) 5–0 —
T 17 Tobias DeLong Val Caspersen (2B) 6–0 —
T 20 Scott MacPhie Tobias DeLong (3B) 7–0 —
T 20 Scott MacPhie Marcos Ghannam (2B) 8–0 —
T 20 Martin Leat Mathis Diémé (3B) 9–0 —
T 20 Val Caspersen Scott MacPhie (3B) 10–0 —
T 23 Tobias DeLong Modesto Pagán (1B) 11–0 —
B 1 Bonsa Tessema Kyron Giammalva (3B) 11–1 1.27
B 1 Bonsa Tessema Levar De Turenne (1B) 11–2 1.15
B 1 Karl-Anthony Maripán Bonsa Tessema (3B) 11–3 1.04
B 2 Dawood Aktaş Karl-Anthony Maripán (3B) 11–4 0.96
B 10 Kyron Giammalva Francisco Vahaly (3B) 11–5 1.24
B 11 Kyron Giammalva Rhyne Okey (3B) 11–6 1.12
B 17 Donis Zamora Hua Xue (3B) 11–7 1.50
B 17 Aaron Holzworth Wilmer Velazquez (3B) 11–8 1.20
B 17 Wilmer Velazquez Sydney Redmayne (3B) 11–9 0.90
B 19 Val Clement Ricki Smith (3B) 11–10 0.75
B 19 Levar De Turenne Aaron Holzworth (3B) 11–11 0.38
B 24 Kyle Rabess Val Clement (3B) 11–12 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.33
Peak faced 1.80
27 outs left 1.33
18 outs left 1.33
9 outs left 1.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to The Oval's actual outfield dimensions (LF 326' · CF 455' · RF 395' · 14' wall). Cavernous.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard
Athletics — Batted Balls
23 BIP· 9 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Hal Fehr — double · EV 104 mph · LA +19° · 271 ft Cannon Sinclair — fly_out · EV 68 mph · LA +39° · 183 ft Emmett Crutchfield — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA +18° · 99 ft Arnold Sutton — single · EV 75 mph · LA +22° · 153 ft Alex Zago — single · EV 70 mph · LA +20° · 122 ft Modesto Pagán — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -7° · 60 ft Tobias DeLong — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +4° · 67 ft Wilfredo Molina — single · EV 84 mph · LA -1° · 80 ft Marcos Ghannam — single · EV 77 mph · LA +11° · 90 ft Scott MacPhie — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +20° · 180 ft Rodrigo Benítez — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +49° · 237 ft Chet Noel — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +19° · 156 ft Martin Leat — double · EV 98 mph · LA +38° · 376 ft Chad Weeks — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +6° · 77 ft Hal Fehr — single · EV 95 mph · LA +24° · 266 ft Tobias DeLong — single · EV 90 mph · LA +27° · 266 ft Randy Korda — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -6° · 62 ft Scott MacPhie — double · EV 99 mph · LA +28° · 327 ft Cannon Sinclair — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 101 ft Val Caspersen — single · EV 81 mph · LA -2° · 77 ft Modesto Pagán — single · EV 64 mph · LA +14° · 78 ft Tobias DeLong — double · EV 99 mph · LA +13° · 169 ft Scott MacPhie — line_out · EV 103 mph · LA +1° · 98 ft
Beavers — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 5 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
326' 455' 395' Wall 14' Val Clement — double · EV 91 mph · LA +39° · 324 ft Levar De Turenne — single · EV 80 mph · LA +14° · 120 ft Bonsa Tessema — double · EV 103 mph · LA +18° · 251 ft Yadier Guerra — infield_single · EV 72 mph · LA -9° · 68 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — double · EV 104 mph · LA +23° · 310 ft Dawood Aktaş — error · EV 76 mph · LA -16° · 72 ft Agustín Waston — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -10° · 53 ft Kyron Giammalva — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Francisco Vahaly — double · EV 97 mph · LA +20° · 244 ft Sydney Redmayne — single · EV 78 mph · LA +16° · 131 ft Wilmer Velazquez — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +27° · 197 ft Hua Xue — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +49° · 229 ft Aaron Holzworth — error · EV 84 mph · LA +7° · 80 ft Kyle Rabess — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Karl-Anthony Maripán — fielders_choice · EV 83 mph · LA +5° · 79 ft Yadier Guerra — double · EV 100 mph · LA +44° · 400 ft Rhyne Okey — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +31° · 214 ft Kyron Giammalva — double_play · EV 59 mph · LA -20° · 56 ft Val Clement — single · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 200 ft Levar De Turenne — fly_out · EV 78 mph · LA +36° · 230 ft Kyle Rabess — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 132 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Athletics
50% deserve-to-win  ·  8.9 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.1 vs expected
contact: 12.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0 (+4.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Scott MacPhie 99 / +28° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Tobias DeLong 99 / +13° Center Double 1.1 → 2 +0.90
Wilfredo Molina 84 / -1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Val Caspersen 81 / -2° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Modesto Pagán 64 / +14° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Beavers
50% deserve-to-win  ·  8.8 expected runs
actual 12 runs  ·  +3.2 vs expected
contact: 12.6 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 15.0 (+2.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Val Clement 91 / +39° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Francisco Vahaly 97 / +20° Center Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Yadier Guerra 72 / -9° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Yadier Guerra 100 / +44° Center Double 2.6 → 2 -0.59
Bonsa Tessema 103 / +18° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
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