==============================================================================
Rockies 7, Guardians 6                                      2026-07-24 · #1159
at Cleveland Coliseum
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Colorado                7    7    4    3
Cleveland               6    6    3    0

ROCKIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Martinho    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   p  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.500
Chaves      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Alderman    rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Kaiuway pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ibarra      3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Herr    pr ......    2   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ruidíaz     2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.000
Porteño     c  ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Otamendi    cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Goss        lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Dowell      j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   1   4   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  29   7   4   1   0   1   6   3  13   0   1  0.138
  2B: Porteño (11).
  HR: Dowell (1), off Yano.
  E: Herr 2 (6), Kaiuway (4).
  a-Ran for Alderman in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Ibarra in the 4th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Yano        p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Villarr pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Bannatyne   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Granberry   2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
  b-Bronaug pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Carmona     lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Cosper      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Anwunah ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Enquist     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Mayotte pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rollins     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Gonzále ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     ss ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.000
Velez       c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   3   0   0  0.000
  f-Brymer  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Tanner  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Zhu     pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Suggs       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  30   6   3   1   0   0   6   3  21   0   0  0.100
  2B: Carmona (2).
  SB: Cabrera (1).
  CS: Zhu (2).
  a-Ran for Yano in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Granberry in the 2nd.
  c-Struck out for Cosper in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Enquist in the 2nd.
  e-Struck out for Rollins in the 6th.
  f-Singled for Villarreal in the 4th.
  g-Struck out in the 9th.
  h-Ran for Brymer in the 5th.

ROCKIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Holzworth ...........     2    0   0%    2    1    1    0    0    0    4    -
Kiger ...............    10    6  22%    0    4    4    2    5    0   45  1-1
Woodall (W, 1-0) ....    15   15  56%    1    1    1    1   12    0   50  1-1
Endo (F, 8) .........     6    6  22%    0    0    0    0    4    0   23    -

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Yano (L, 14-6) ......    23   17  63%    4    7    7    3    7    1   79    -
Browder .............     9   10  37%    0    0    0    0    6    0   32  1-0

ROCKIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Kiger (Outs 1-6) → Woodall (Outs 7-21) → Endo (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Porteño (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Chaves (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ruidíaz (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ibarra (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martinho (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Goss (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Otamendi (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Alderman (Outs 1-27)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Yano (Outs 1-17) → Browder (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Velez (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Bannatyne (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cosper (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Cabrera (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Rollins (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted second; Rockies batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 85°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 408931.
  Powerplays: Guardians — Tanner NF
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 0.89
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.67
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 10 Ronald Herr Corey Holzworth (3B) 1–0 —
T 12 Mario Porteño Ronald Herr (3B) 2–0 —
T 16 Marco Ruidíaz Mario Porteño (2B) 3–0 —
T 17 Thai-Son Dowell Justin Kaiuway (3B) 4–0 —
T 17 Thai-Son Dowell Wesly Otamendi (2B) 5–0 —
T 17 Thai-Son Dowell Ronald Herr (1B) 6–0 —
T 17 Thai-Son Dowell Thai-Son Dowell (HR) 7–0 —
B 0 Boris Carmona Yasufumi Yano (1B) 7–1 0.78
B 2 Sam Enquist Boris Carmona (2B) 7–2 0.72
B 5 Eddie Velez Benoit Mayotte (3B) 7–3 0.68
B 5 Eddie Velez Kemari Granberry (2B) 7–4 0.55
B 5 Sekou Cabrera Clint Bronaugh (3B) 7–5 0.41
B 11 Anthony Brymer Sekou Cabrera (2B) 7–6 0.38
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 0.89
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Rockies — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
315' 410' 349' Markeylin Martinho — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA +4° · 78 ft Corey Holzworth — single · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Allen Alderman — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +26° · 223 ft Dixon Ibarra — single · EV 77 mph · LA +11° · 89 ft Wesly Otamendi — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +41° · 260 ft Ahkhari Goss — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +34° · 342 ft Thai-Son Dowell — hr · EV 111 mph · LA +26° · 389 ft Markeylin Martinho — fly_out · EV 65 mph · LA +41° · 165 ft Mario Porteño — double · EV 96 mph · LA +36° · 351 ft Ahkhari Goss — line_out · EV 68 mph · LA +23° · 133 ft Mario Porteño — line_out · EV 95 mph · LA +16° · 188 ft Marco Ruidíaz — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Jeyland Chaves — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +35° · 320 ft Ahkhari Goss — line_out · EV 70 mph · LA +17° · 111 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
8 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Yasufumi Yano — single · EV 88 mph · LA -14° · 84 ft Boris Carmona — double · EV 99 mph · LA +30° · 335 ft Sam Enquist — error · EV 78 mph · LA -1° · 75 ft Anthony Brymer — single · EV 99 mph · LA -6° · 94 ft Eddie Velez — error · EV 70 mph · LA -13° · 66 ft Sekou Cabrera — error · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 88 ft Aleksandar Cosper — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA +5° · 84 ft Benoit Mayotte — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 393 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Rockies
86% deserve-to-win  ·  5.0 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 10.6 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (-2.6 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Thai-Son Dowell 111 / +26° Pull Home Run 2.2 → 4 +1.75
Ahkhari Goss 96 / +34° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Mario Porteño 95 / +16° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Jeyland Chaves 92 / +35° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Wesly Otamendi 81 / +41° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Guardians
14% deserve-to-win  ·  2.0 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  +4.0 vs expected
contact: 5.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Benoit Mayotte 100 / +40° Oppo Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Boris Carmona 99 / +30° Oppo Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Sekou Cabrera 88 / +8° Center Reached on Error 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Yasufumi Yano 88 / -14° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Anthony Brymer 99 / -6° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.50
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →