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Brewers 9, Cubs 8                                           2026-07-24 · #1162
at Bussaglia Grounds
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 8    8    7    0
Milwaukee               9    9    7    1

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Shurtleff   lf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   3   1   0   1   0  0.333
Heinze      c  ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   1   0  0.500
May         1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Palermo pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Myers       3b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Lamas   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Casey       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Hollowe pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lamas       cf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Santana pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Mueller pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Wambach     2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   1  0.333
Sprengelmey p  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Kurth   ph ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.333
Verhoeven   j  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   8   7   2   0   0   8   7   8   2   1  0.241
  2B: Shurtleff (5), Kurth (2).
  SB: May (9), Wambach (4).
  a-Ran for May in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Myers in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Casey in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Lamas in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Sarkissian in the 2nd.
  f-Batted for Mueller in the 4th.

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cortizo     p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mesidor     c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Flores      1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Williams    ss ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  1.000
  a-Saravia pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Edwards     lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Irving  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gentry      3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Espinoz ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Yani        rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Sakurai ph ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Kass        cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Penicko pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Ishida  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Nava        j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ayers       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  22   9   7   4   1   0   9   6   6   0   1  0.318
  2B: Nava (7), Mesidor (27), Flores (5), Kass (5).
  3B: Sakurai (1).
  E: Cortizo (1).
  a-Ran for Williams in the 5th.
  b-Grounded out for Edwards in the 6th.
  c-Walked for Kaplan in the 7th.
  d-Tripled for Yani in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Sakurai in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Espinoza in the 7th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sprengelmeye (L, 3-8)     23   17  63%    6    6    6    5    5    0   81    -
Bay-Regula ..........     5    3  11%    1    3    3    1    1    0   16  1-1

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Cortizo (W, 12-2) ...    27   19  70%    6    7    4    7    5    0  108    -
Autry ...............     8    8  30%    0    1    1    0    3    0   31  3-1

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-20)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sprengelmeyer (Outs 1-17) → Bay-Regula (Outs 18-20)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-20)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | May (Outs 1-20)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Wambach (Outs 1-20)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Myers (Outs 1-20)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Casey (Outs 1-20)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-20)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Lamas (Outs 1-20)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-20)

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Cortizo (Outs 1-19) → Autry (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Flores (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kaplan (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gentry (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Kass (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Yani (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Brewers (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM CT. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 697925.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 4 Kendrick Wambach Floyd Myers (3B) 1–0
T 5 Bryce Shurtleff Mikel Lamas (3B) 2–0
T 5 Bryce Shurtleff Michael Mueller (2B) 3–0
T 11 Kendrick Wambach Víctor Lamas (2B) 4–0
T 18 Davion Kurth Kendrick Wambach (3B) 5–0
T 18 Davion Kurth Brian Verhoeven (2B) 6–0
T 19 Bryce Shurtleff Jaume Santana (3B) 7–0
T 19 Tomas Heinze Micah Sprengelmeyer (2B) 8–0
B 2 Daniel Edwards Stan Mesidor (2B) 8–1
B 4 Thierry Kass Daniel Edwards (2B) 8–2
B 4 Thierry Kass Steven Kaplan (1B) 8–3
B 13 Stan Mesidor Sergio Saravia (3B) 8–4
B 17 Percy Nava Rodolfo Flores (2B) 8–5
B 17 Percy Nava Noel Gentry (1B) 8–6
B 18 Takuto Sakurai Percy Nava (3B) 8–7
B 18 Takuto Sakurai Toshihiro Ishida (1B) 8–8
B 19 Oscar Cortizo Raymond Penickova (3B) 8–9
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Bussaglia Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 344' · CF 415' · RF 304' · 12' wall). Short Porch (Right).
Cubs — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +1° · 80 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Erick May — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 91 ft Floyd Myers — fielders_choice · EV 66 mph · LA -11° · 62 ft Kendrick Wambach — single · EV 85 mph · LA +14° · 138 ft Harold Palermo — ground_out · EV 60 mph · LA -1° · 57 ft Víctor Lamas — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -15° · 91 ft Brian Verhoeven — error · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Wyatt Conn — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 68 ft Bryce Shurtleff — double · EV 82 mph · LA +40° · 264 ft Tomas Heinze — single · EV 86 mph · LA -1° · 82 ft Mikel Lamas — single · EV 79 mph · LA -4° · 75 ft Davion Kurth — double · EV 90 mph · LA +28° · 264 ft Kendrick Wambach — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Harold Palermo — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 82 ft Víctor Lamas — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -9° · 60 ft Bryce Shurtleff — line_out · EV 63 mph · LA +15° · 79 ft Bryce Shurtleff — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +26° · 134 ft Tomas Heinze — single · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Tomas Heinze — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -23° · 55 ft
Brewers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
344' 415' 304' Daniel Edwards — single · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 136 ft Thierry Kass — double · EV 100 mph · LA +21° · 265 ft Oscar Cortizo — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +3° · 84 ft Steven Kaplan — ground_out · EV 109 mph · LA +2° · 104 ft Jesse Williams — single · EV 88 mph · LA -21° · 84 ft Stan Mesidor — double · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 318 ft Percy Nava — double · EV 119 mph · LA +17° · 320 ft Takuto Sakurai — triple · EV 119 mph · LA +12° · 234 ft Graydon Yani — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -31° · 84 ft Rodolfo Flores — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -3° · 84 ft Stan Mesidor — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 250 ft Rodolfo Flores — double · EV 119 mph · LA +19° · 352 ft Oscar Cortizo — fly_out · EV 114 mph · LA +19° · 319 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
29% deserve-to-win  ·  6.6 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 6.9 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+0.1 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Davion Kurth 90 / +28° Oppo Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Mikel Lamas 79 / -4° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Tomas Heinze 86 / -1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Bryce Shurtleff 82 / +40° Pull Stay 0.4 → 1 +0.57
Brian Verhoeven 76 / +17° Center Reached on Error 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Brewers
71% deserve-to-win  ·  10.4 expected runs
actual 9 runs  ·  -1.4 vs expected
contact: 14.1 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-1.1 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Oscar Cortizo 114 / +19° Pull Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Takuto Sakurai 119 / +12° Pull Triple 1.5 → 3 +1.48
Stan Mesidor 100 / +19° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Jesse Williams 88 / -21° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Thierry Kass 100 / +21° Center Double 1.4 → 2 +0.58
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