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Expos 11, Stars 5                                           2026-07-25 · #1170
at Neviaser Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Montreal               11   11   10    1
Nashville               5    5    4    0

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
López       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Huitema pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Grizzlies   3b ......    3   2   3   0   0   0   1   1   1   1   0  1.000
Creek       lf ......    3   3   1   0   0   1   3   0   1   0   0  0.333
Geffrard    cf ......    4   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Hiebert     2b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mondeville  rf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Pérez       1b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   0  0.000
Spence      c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Fielding    ss ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
  b-Solórza ph ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Gibson      j  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   1   0  1.000
Morales     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Currier     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  32  11  10   2   0   1  10   6  13   2   0  0.312
  2B: Geffrard (18), Solórzano (18).
  HR: Creek (3), off Forrest.
  E: Fielding (6).
  HBP: Creek (5).
  a-Ran for López in the 4th.
  b-Batted in the 6th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Burani      2b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Cooper      lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sappington  ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fusano      3b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.333
Spence      rf ......    3   3   2   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
Mendez      1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Cubillán    c  ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Trujillo    p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
  a-Karouan ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Giannou     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  28   5   4   1   0   1   3   3  13   0   0  0.143
  2B: Fusano (14).
  HR: Spence (3), off Chará.
  CS: Sappington (5).
  GIDP: Burani (3), Cubillán (2).
  a-Struck out in the 6th.

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
López (W, 14-1) .....    12   12  44%    0    0    0    0    7    0   45    -
Chará ...............    14   10  37%    3    3    2    3    4    1   49    -
Cabalceta (F, 44) ...     6    5  19%    1    2    2    0    3    0   25  2-2

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Trujillo ............    17   14  52%    1    3    3    3    7    0   71    -
Forrest (L, 4-8) ....     6    2   7%    4    6    6    2    1    1   24  2-2
Louis ...............    14   11  41%    4    2    1    1    5    0   57  1-1

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | López (Outs 1-12) → Chará (Outs 13-22) → Cabalceta (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spence (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Pérez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Hiebert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fielding (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Creek (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mondeville (Outs 1-27)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Trujillo (Outs 1-14) → Forrest (Outs 15-16) → Louis (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cubillán (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Mendez (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Burani (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sappington (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted second; Expos batted first.
  First pitch 7:10 PM CT. Weather: 94°F · Wind out · Overcast · Humid. seed 728148.
  Walk-Back runs: off Chará 1, off Louis 1.
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
T 11 Curt Gibson Jenson Huitema (3B) 1–0
T 12 Jordi Pérez Fran Creek (3B) 2–0
T 13 Pedro Morales Franklin Mondeville (2B) 3–0
T 16 Maciek Grizzlies Titus Hiebert (3B) 4–0
T 16 Curt Gibson Jordi Pérez (3B) 5–0
T 16 Curt Gibson Jenson Huitema (3B) 6–0
T 16 Fran Creek Maciek Grizzlies (3B) 7–0
T 16 Fran Creek Curt Gibson (1B) 8–0
T 16 Fran Creek Fran Creek (HR) 9–0
T 16 Quincy Geffrard Fran Creek (3B) 10–0
T 24 Rónald Solórzano Maciek Grizzlies (2B) 11–0
B 14 Tracy Fusano Sean Spence (1B) 11–1
B 20 Sean Spence Sean Spence (HR) 11–2
B 21 Justo Burani Sean Spence (3B) 11–3
B 24 Samuel Giannou Facundo Mendez (3B) 11–4
B 24 Justo Burani Haxzel Cubillán (3B) 11–5
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Expos — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 6 1B · 2 XBH · 1 HR
279' 373' 278' Titus Hiebert — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +22° · 237 ft Jordi Pérez — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -5° · 62 ft Omni Fielding — single · EV 80 mph · LA -4° · 76 ft Pedro Morales — ground_out · EV 104 mph · LA +2° · 99 ft Elliott Currier — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 140 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 90 mph · LA +13° · 142 ft Curt Gibson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Fran Creek — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 400 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 119 mph · LA +25° · 429 ft Jordi Pérez — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +32° · 183 ft Curt Gibson — single · EV 80 mph · LA +19° · 160 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 61 mph · LA +18° · 86 ft Quincy Geffrard — double · EV 90 mph · LA +27° · 266 ft Roscoe Spence — fly_out · EV 103 mph · LA +15° · 215 ft Franklin Mondeville — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +21° · 146 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 100 mph · LA -26° · 95 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 1 HR
279' 373' 278' Facundo Mendez — error · EV 60 mph · LA -7° · 57 ft Haxzel Cubillán — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Justo Burani — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 72 ft Derlis Trujillo — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 99 ft Samuel Giannou — single · EV 79 mph · LA +23° · 184 ft Edwin Gayton — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -2° · 72 ft Haxzel Cubillán — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +4° · 74 ft Sean Spence — single · EV 76 mph · LA -11° · 72 ft Tracy Fusano — double · EV 93 mph · LA +16° · 188 ft Bruno Cooper — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +6° · 72 ft Wallace Sappington — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -18° · 49 ft Sean Spence — hr · EV 102 mph · LA +27° · 333 ft Edwin Gayton — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 90 ft Justo Burani — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 113 ft Edwin Gayton — fielders_choice · EV 64 mph · LA -10° · 61 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Expos
92% deserve-to-win  ·  9.0 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.0 vs expected
contact: 13.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (+0.5 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rónald Solórzano 119 / +25° Pull Single 3.0 → 1 -1.96
Fran Creek 100 / +42° Center Home Run 2.6 → 4 +1.41
Quincy Geffrard 90 / +27° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.26
Roscoe Spence 103 / +15° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.26
Rónald Solórzano 90 / +13° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.16
Stars
8% deserve-to-win  ·  2.6 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +2.4 vs expected
contact: 6.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+1.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sean Spence 102 / +27° Pull Home Run 1.3 → 4 +2.66
Tracy Fusano 93 / +16° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Derlis Trujillo 92 / +8° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.84
Sean Spence 76 / -11° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Edwin Gayton 76 / +12° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.48
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