==============================================================================
Diamondbacks 4, Orcas 3                                     2026-07-31 · #1228
at Arizona Coliseum
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Vancouver               3    3    6    0
Arizona                 4    4    6    0

ORCAS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mendez      lf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Peavy       3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.333
Beigel      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Noonan  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alonso-Corc ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Valdivia    rf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Quintero    2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Irvin   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Edmonson    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Millar  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Teeguarden  c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Blackshear  p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  d-Badger  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cuéllar     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Roker       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Turrentine  j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  27   3   6   0   0   0   3   5  12   0   0  0.222
  SB: Valdivia 2 (8).
  GIDP: Valdivia (1), Edmonson (1), Millar (3).
  a-Struck out for Beigel in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Quintero in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Edmonson in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Blackshear in the 7th.

DIAMONDBACKS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Aogo        2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alderman    3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Efird       p  ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Randall pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
McNutt      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Maupin      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gronowski   rf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Ullstro ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Foyth       cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Linton      ss ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Tanabe  ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Bektas      1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Schmelzle   1b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Kruger  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-O'Conne pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Manasse     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  19   4   6   2   0   0   3   3   6   0   0  0.316
  2B: Efird (2), Gronowski (14).
  SB: Efird (1).
  HBP: Alderman (1).
  GIDP: Ullstrom (5).
  a-Ran for Efird in the 4th.
  b-Grounded out for Gronowski in the 9th.
  c-Batted for Linton in the 4th.
  d-Grounded out in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.

ORCAS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Blackshear (L, 4-7) .    23   17  63%    6    4    4    3    6    0   67    -

DIAMONDBACKS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Efird (W, 10-7) .....    29   27 100%    4    3    3    5   12    0  123    -

ORCAS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Blackshear (Outs 1-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Teeguarden (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Beigel (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Quintero (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Peavy (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Alonso-Corcelles (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Mendez (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Edmonson (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Valdivia (Outs 1-17)

DIAMONDBACKS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Efird (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Maupin (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Schmelzle (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Aogo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alderman (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Linton (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | McNutt (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Foyth (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Gronowski (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Diamondbacks (home) batted second; Orcas batted first.
  First pitch 7:05 PM MT. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 660173.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.55
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 20 Kreigh Alonso-Corcelles Louis Badger (3B) 1–0 —
T 20 Coen Turrentine Norris Mendez (3B) 2–0 —
T 26 Andrea Peavy Ivan Teeguarden (1B) 3–0 —
B 7 Clark Efird Miguel Linton (1B) 3–1 0.45
B 10 Bryce Alderman Anderson Randall (3B) 3–2 0.35
B 17 Genta Tanabe Wallace Schmelzle (3B) 3–3 0.30
B 17 Genta Tanabe Don O'Connell (3B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.55
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Arizona Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 340' · CF 429' · RF 341' · 8' wall). Balanced.
Crow's Nest Ivy Wall
Orcas — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
340' 429' 341' Alexis Edmonson — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA -2° · 65 ft Graydon Blackshear — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Amarien Beigel — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +6° · 49 ft Yerry Cuéllar — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Coen Turrentine — single · EV 52 mph · LA +16° · 60 ft Louis Badger — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Norris Mendez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 127 ft Graydon Blackshear — single · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft John Millar — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -14° · 49 ft Norris Mendez — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 165 ft Moisés Valdivia — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -2° · 61 ft Andrea Peavy — single · EV 52 mph · LA +14° · 60 ft
Diamondbacks — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 4 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
340' 429' 341' Ron Gronowski — double · EV 92 mph · LA +13° · 145 ft Bryce Alderman — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 102 ft Joao Foyth — ground_out · EV 69 mph · LA -0° · 66 ft Miguel Linton — single · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Clark Efird — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 209 ft Irving Ullstrom — double_play · EV 64 mph · LA -5° · 61 ft Graydon Kruger — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +37° · 253 ft Phillip Bektas — single · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 179 ft Genta Tanabe — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 93 ft Leverton Aogo — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 181 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orcas
47% deserve-to-win  ·  3.0 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 3.2 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (+0.8 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Graydon Blackshear 76 / -5° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Coen Turrentine 52 / +16° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Andrea Peavy 52 / +14° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Norris Mendez 76 / +17° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Norris Mendez 76 / +23° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Diamondbacks
53% deserve-to-win  ·  3.2 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.8 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+4.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ron Gronowski 92 / +13° Pull Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Clark Efird 92 / +19° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Phillip Bektas 76 / +25° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.85
Miguel Linton 76 / -7° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Bryce Alderman 76 / +13° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →