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Marlins 4, Athletics 3                                      2026-08-02 · #1247
at Abdurakhmanov Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   4    4    4    0
Oakland                 3    3    9    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Enquist     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Mothudi pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Blackman    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Chieh-y ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hester      p  ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Narazak pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Dibert      lf ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Todd-Wi ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Suárez      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Guerra      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Mangin      3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Enterline   rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Beasley pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Vildoza ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1   .000
  g-Suggs   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Trevino ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  21   4   4   1   0   0   3   7   7   0   1  0.190
  2B: Dibert (5).
  CS: Suárez (13).
  GIDP: Mangin (13), Beasley (4), Todd-Williams (1).
  Squeeze: Enterline.
  a-Ran for Enquist in the 8th.
  b-Singled for Blackman in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Hester in the 5th.
  d-Grounded out for Dibert in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Enterline in the 5th.
  f-Pinch-hit for Suggs in the 7th.
  g-Ran for Chieh-yu in the 5th.
  h-Walked in the 8th.

ATHLETICS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fehr        cf ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Gerlach ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Caspersen   c  ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Sinclair    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Wiesner pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
DeLong      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Leat    ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Crutchfield 2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Korda       3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Kade    pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Diémé       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Rodrigu ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sutton      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Curran      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Noel    pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Molina  ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  h-Saunder pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ghannam     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  29   3   9   3   0   0   3   2   6   0   0  0.310
  2B: Fehr (2), Korda (9), Leat (12).
  CS: Ghannam (2).
  a-Batted for Fehr in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Sinclair in the 4th.
  c-Batted for DeLong in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Korda in the 3rd.
  e-Singled for Diémé in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Rodrigues in the 4th.
  g-Batted in the 5th.
  h-Ran in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hester (W, 3-4) .....    31   27 100%    9    3    3    2    6    0  100    -

ATHLETICS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Curran (L, 13-7) ....    16   15  56%    3    2    2    1    5    0   57    -
Kitler ..............    10    7  26%    0    2    2    6    2    0   28  2-1

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hester (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

ATHLETICS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-22)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Curran (Outs 1-15) → Kitler (Outs 16-22)
CATCHER (C)       | Caspersen (Outs 1-22)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Sinclair (Outs 1-22)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Crutchfield (Outs 1-22)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Korda (Outs 1-22)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sutton (Outs 1-22)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | DeLong (Outs 1-22)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-22)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Diémé (Outs 1-22)

  Batting order: Athletics (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 2:10 PM PT. Weather: 57°F · Wind out · Clear. seed 457488.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.86
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 23 Martin Leat Emmett Crutchfield (1B) 0–1 —
B 24 Val Caspersen Martin Leat (2B) 0–2 —
B 26 Marcos Ghannam Val Caspersen (3B) 0–3 —
T 14 Montavious Chieh-yu Alexander Beasley (3B) 1–3 0.69
T 14 Máximo Vildoza Alex Dibert (3B) 2–3 0.46
T 15 Bob Todd-Williams Keishiro Narazaki (3B) 3–3 0.25
T 22 Israel Trevino Carson Suggs (3B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.86
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Abdurakhmanov Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 350' · CF 450' · RF 346' · 13' wall). Cavernous.
Death Valley
Marlins — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Anthonie Hester — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 91 ft Alex Dibert — double · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 132 ft Devon Mangin — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 80 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Wallace Enterline — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +12° · 109 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 108 ft Bob Todd-Williams — double_play · EV 79 mph · LA -15° · 75 ft Alexander Beasley — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -13° · 54 ft Jason Enquist — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 69 ft Jean Altamirano — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +34° · 216 ft Devon Mangin — line_out · EV 59 mph · LA +14° · 63 ft Antwone Guerra — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft
Athletics — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 6 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
350' 450' 346' Hal Fehr — double · EV 100 mph · LA +36° · 380 ft Cannon Sinclair — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +14° · 150 ft Tobias DeLong — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +33° · 366 ft Emmett Crutchfield — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 328 ft Randy Korda — double · EV 98 mph · LA +29° · 327 ft Frank Gerlach — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -25° · 92 ft Martin Leat — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +5° · 95 ft Nick Kade — single · EV 116 mph · LA +9° · 170 ft Mauricio Rodrigues — single · EV 100 mph · LA -12° · 95 ft Marcos Ghannam — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA -17° · 82 ft Chet Noel — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +10° · 98 ft Cannon Sinclair — fielders_choice · EV 100 mph · LA +9° · 124 ft Wilfredo Molina — line_out · EV 86 mph · LA +12° · 123 ft Martin Leat — double · EV 119 mph · LA +12° · 236 ft Frank Gerlach — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Marcos Ghannam — single · EV 100 mph · LA +6° · 95 ft Emmett Crutchfield — single · EV 88 mph · LA -15° · 84 ft Val Caspersen — single · EV 85 mph · LA -17° · 81 ft Wilfredo Molina — single · EV 83 mph · LA +9° · 83 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
21% deserve-to-win  ·  4.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 4.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alex Dibert 92 / +12° Center Double 0.8 → 2 +1.19
Wallace Enterline 82 / +12° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Anthonie Hester 76 / +12° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Montavious Chieh-yu 76 / +14° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Devon Mangin 76 / +10° Center Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Athletics
79% deserve-to-win  ·  7.9 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -4.9 vs expected
contact: 16.4 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (-4.4 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tobias DeLong 100 / +33° Center Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Emmett Crutchfield 100 / +28° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Cannon Sinclair 100 / +9° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Randy Korda 98 / +29° Pull Double 1.1 → 2 +0.93
Cannon Sinclair 88 / +14° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
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