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Tigers 4, Orioles 0                                         2026-08-07 · #1299
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 4    4    4    0
Baltimore               0    0    3    0

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Delatte     ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Peavy       lf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Monroe      3b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Zheng       2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Day         1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  a-McMicha pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Marion      cf ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  b-Verón   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sears       rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Amigo   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lutmer      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kobak       p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   .000
  d-Acebo   pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Whorisk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Grimald ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Massey      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Soldan      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kuhler      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   4   4   1   0   0   3   4  14   0   0  0.148
  2B: Marion (6).
  SB: Delatte (20), Marion (5).
  CS: McMichael (8).
  HBP: Delatte (7), Kobak (1).
  a-Ran for Day in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Marion in the 9th.
  c-Ran for Sears in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Kobak in the 2nd.
  e-Struck out for Acebo in the 8th.
  f-Struck out for Soldan in the 8th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Foust       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Purchase    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Lichnov ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Kagame      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Melch   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mills       3b ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.667
Heath       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Kautz   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Maloney     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Nealon      p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.500
  d-Barba   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Rubin       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23   0   3   0   0   0   0   3  10   0   1  0.130
  SB: Mills (1).
  CS: Heath (3), Maloney (16), Nealon (1), Barba (5).
  GIDP: Lichnovsky (4).
  a-Grounded out for Ison in the 8th.
  b-Struck out for Kagame in the 8th.
  c-Struck out for Heath in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Nealon in the 7th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Kobak (W, 5-3) ......    26   27   94  3.6    3    0    0    3   10    0    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Nealon (L, 3-2) .....    13    9   44  3.4    3    3    3    1    1    0    -
Barella .............    16   14   59  3.7    1    1    1    2   11    0  1-1
Luqueño .............     4    4   10  2.5    0    0    0    1    2    0  2-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Kobak (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lutmer (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Day (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Zheng (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Marion (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sears (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Nealon (Outs 1-9) → Barella (Outs 10-23) → Luqueño (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kagame (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mills (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Purchase (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Maloney (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Heath (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Tigers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 82°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 73143.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 15.00
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 5 Timothy Kobak Zixuan Zheng (3B) 1–0 —
T 6 Noah Massey Eloy Amigo (3B) 2–0 —
T 8 Cooper Monroe Raymond Acebo (3B) 3–0 —
T 11 Karl Marion Aleksandar Delatte (3B) 4–0 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 15.00
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Tigers — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Ed Peavy — single · EV 78 mph · LA +15° · 125 ft Cooper Monroe — single · EV 88 mph · LA -11° · 84 ft Zixuan Zheng — single · EV 75 mph · LA -11° · 71 ft Christian Day — fielders_choice · EV 80 mph · LA +7° · 76 ft Karl Marion — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +1° · 68 ft Aleksandar Delatte — fielders_choice · EV 87 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Kevin Kuhler — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA -12° · 69 ft Ed Peavy — line_out · EV 70 mph · LA +12° · 78 ft Cooper Monroe — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +20° · 231 ft Karl Marion — double · EV 98 mph · LA +40° · 379 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Junior Kagame — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +57° · 99 ft Dan Mills — single · EV 80 mph · LA +24° · 190 ft Bo Nealon — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -1° · 51 ft Alan Maloney — fielders_choice · EV 63 mph · LA -6° · 60 ft Nicolas Lichnovsky — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Junior Kagame — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 91 ft Dyllan Ison — fly_out · EV 62 mph · LA +37° · 146 ft Sidney Foust — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -17° · 50 ft Bo Nealon — single · EV 92 mph · LA +47° · 338 ft Dan Mills — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 168 ft Kristian Alison — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +20° · 107 ft Sidney Foust — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
100% deserve-to-win  ·  4.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -0.1 vs expected
contact: 5.7 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-0.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cooper Monroe 96 / +20° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Zixuan Zheng 75 / -11° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Cooper Monroe 88 / -11° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Ed Peavy 78 / +15° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Ed Peavy 70 / +12° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Orioles
0% deserve-to-win  ·  -0.6 expected runs
actual 0 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 3.4 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-0.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 4 CS (-2.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dan Mills 80 / +24° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.84
Junior Kagame 76 / +12° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Dan Mills 76 / +23° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Kristian Alison 64 / +20° Oppo Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
Nicolas Lichnovsky 76 / +4° Oppo Double Play 0.3 → 0 -0.25
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