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Beavers 1, Canaries 0                                       2026-08-08 · #1311
at New Jersey Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Portland                1    1    1    0
New Jersey              0    0    3    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Fuenzalida  lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Vahaly      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Turenne     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Briaud      cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Streko  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  b-Waston  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Xue         3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Harper  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Henríquez   p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  d-Sabella pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Vidal   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Clement ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   1   1   0   0   0   1   4  10   0   0  0.040
  SB: Vidal (6).
  HBP: Holzworth (5).
  GIDP: Vahaly (4), Streko 2 (9).
  a-Batted for Briaud in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Holzworth in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Xue in the 3rd.
  d-Ran in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Grounded out for Waston in the 9th.

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Lacava      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kerr        rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Barron  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pastore     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Brickhandle 1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Nachand ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Campos      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Israel      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  0.000
Cordero     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Navarro     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Morriso pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Hollenb pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Savides ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  20   0   3   0   0   0   0   5   5   0   1  0.150
  CS: Kerr (12), Cordero (14), Navarro (7).
  HBP: Navarro (2).
  GIDP: Savides (1), Lacava (4), Campos (1), Israel (1), Barron (1).
  a-Ran for Kerr in the 6th.
  b-Singled for Brickhandler in the 7th.
  c-Ran for Navarro in the 4th.
  d-Ran in the 7th.
  e-Batted in the 6th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Henríquez (W, 8-8) ..    25   27   85  3.4    2    0    0    5    6    0    -

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Israel (L, 7-9) .....    30   27   97  3.2    1    1    1    4   10    0    -

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Henríquez (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Xue (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Briaud (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Turenne (Outs 1-27)

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Israel (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Brickhandler (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Campos (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Canaries (home) batted second; Beavers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 87°F · Wind in · Overcast · Humid. seed 109722.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 3.00
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 13 Levar De Turenne Agustín Waston (3B) 1–0 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 3.00
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to New Jersey Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 341' · CF 403' · RF 324' · 40' wall). Balanced.
Beavers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Levar De Turenne — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 133 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Travis Briaud — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +16° · 94 ft Gabriel Harper — fly_out · EV 55 mph · LA +46° · 119 ft Mekhi Streko — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 50 ft Enrique Sabella — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -11° · 87 ft Val Clement — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 196 ft Édison Henríquez — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 98 ft Levar De Turenne — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 288 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +7° · 49 ft Mekhi Streko — double_play · EV 61 mph · LA -30° · 58 ft Agustín Waston — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA -12° · 49 ft Francisco Vahaly — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 72 ft
Canaries — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
341' 403' 324' Wall 40' Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +28° · 209 ft Jam Brickhandler — single · EV 96 mph · LA +27° · 299 ft Hugo Campos — double_play · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 85 ft Grant Cordero — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 137 ft Raziel Israel — double_play · EV 60 mph · LA +7° · 57 ft Jerome Kerr — single · EV 93 mph · LA +11° · 129 ft Julian Savides — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA -8° · 62 ft Brandon Barron — double_play · EV 65 mph · LA -1° · 62 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +3° · 79 ft Hugo Campos — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +11° · 89 ft Renaldo Pastore — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +47° · 276 ft Roberto Lacava — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA -1° · 73 ft Roberto Lacava — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -8° · 55 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
59% deserve-to-win  ·  3.7 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.7 vs expected
contact: 4.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-3.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Val Clement 92 / +18° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Levar De Turenne 92 / +29° Pull Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Levar De Turenne 76 / +18° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Édison Henríquez 76 / +13° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Francisco Vahaly 76 / +9° Center Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Canaries
41% deserve-to-win  ·  3.1 expected runs
actual 0 runs  ·  -3.1 vs expected
contact: 5.8 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-3.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 3 CS (-2.0 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Hugo Campos 88 / +8° Center Double Play 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Grant Cordero 92 / +12° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Renaldo Pastore 83 / +47° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.68
Hugo Campos 77 / +11° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Roberto Lacava 83 / +3° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.30
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