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Tigers 7, Orioles 6                                         2026-08-08 · #1312
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Detroit                 7    7    6    0
Baltimore               6    6    9    1

TIGERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Delatte     ss ......    2   1   2   2   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Marion      1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Acebo   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Peavy       lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sears       rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Monroe      3b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Verón   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Zheng       2b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Lutmer      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  c-Ndiaye  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
McMichael   cf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Day     ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Massey      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   3   0   0  0.000
  e-Whorisk ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Grimald ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Borden  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   7   6   3   0   0   7   4  11   0   1  0.250
  2B: Delatte 2 (17), Zheng (9).
  SB: Sears (8), McMichael (7), Acebo (13).
  CS: Delatte (18).
  GIDP: Borden (4).
  a-Ran for Marion in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Monroe in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Lutmer in the 7th.
  d-Walked for McMichael in the 7th.
  e-Struck out for Verón in the 5th.
  f-Grounded out for Acebo in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Day in the 7th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Maloney     lf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     3b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1  1.000
  a-López   pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Sigourney   rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
  b-Lichnov pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Kagame      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Kautz   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Mills       cf ......    3   2   2   2   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Stokke      ss ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Ison        2b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Shaffer     p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Barba   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Foust   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  f-Schloss ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rubin       j  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Thompson    j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0  1.000
Adams       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   6   9   5   0   0   6   7   3   1   1  0.321
  2B: Alison (9), Mills 2 (6), Stokke (1), Rubin (7).
  SB: Barba (2), Foust (16).
  CS: Stokke (5).
  E: Ison (4).
  a-Ran for Samudio in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Alison in the 7th.
  c-Walked for Kagame in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Shaffer in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Kautz in the 5th.
  f-Grounded out for Lichnovsky in the 9th.

TIGERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Massey (W, 1-1) .....    26   19  70%    9    6    6    5    1    0   80    -
Basham ..............     9    8  30%    0    0    0    2    2    0   28  1-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Shaffer (L, 8-3) ....    13   10  37%    4    3    3    2    6    0   45    -
Storako .............     5    2   7%    2    3    3    0    0    0   21  1-0
Campos ..............    10    9  33%    0    1    1    2    5    0   39  1-0

TIGERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Massey (Outs 1-19) → Basham (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lutmer (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Marion (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Zheng (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Monroe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Delatte (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Peavy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | McMichael (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sears (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-21)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Shaffer (Outs 1-10) → Storako (Outs 11-12) → Campos (Outs 13-21)
CATCHER (C)       | Kagame (Outs 1-21)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-21)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-21)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-21)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Stokke (Outs 1-21)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Maloney (Outs 1-21)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Mills (Outs 1-21)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-21)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Tigers batted second.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 97°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 706880.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 0.88
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 6 Dyllan Ison Dan Mills (2B) 0–1 —
B 13 Dan Mills Destyn Thompson (1B) 0–2 —
B 13 Maciek Stokke Dan Mills (2B) 0–3 —
B 19 Kristian Alison Edson López (1B) 0–4 —
B 19 Arkie Rubin Nicolas Lichnovsky (2B) 0–5 —
B 19 Arkie Rubin Sidney Foust (1B) 0–6 —
T 2 Zixuan Zheng Cooper Monroe (1B) 1–6 0.72
T 3 Ricki Sears Zixuan Zheng (2B) 2–6 0.62
T 10 Karl Marion Barry McMichael (2B) 3–6 0.71
T 12 Aleksandar Delatte Raymond Acebo (3B) 4–6 0.60
T 12 Aleksandar Delatte Youstin Verón (1B) 5–6 0.40
T 12 Aleksandar Delatte Aleksandar Delatte (2B) 6–6 0.20
T 19 Trevor Borden Gardnar Ndiaye (3B) 7–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 0.88
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Tigers — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Cooper Monroe — single · EV 98 mph · LA -6° · 93 ft Zixuan Zheng — double · EV 105 mph · LA +50° · 438 ft Ricki Sears — single · EV 71 mph · LA +7° · 67 ft Aleksandar Delatte — double · EV 110 mph · LA +18° · 280 ft Jon Grimaldo — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -8° · 84 ft Trevor Borden — double_play · EV 74 mph · LA +4° · 70 ft Ricki Sears — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +38° · 334 ft Karl Marion — single · EV 98 mph · LA +1° · 93 ft Zixuan Zheng — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA +28° · 293 ft Cooper Monroe — error · EV 93 mph · LA -12° · 88 ft Ed Peavy — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +25° · 213 ft Aleksandar Delatte — double · EV 108 mph · LA +28° · 392 ft Liam Lutmer — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA -12° · 84 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 5 1B · 5 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -12° · 83 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +5° · 71 ft Junior Kagame — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +34° · 247 ft Dan Mills — double · EV 89 mph · LA +35° · 300 ft Dyllan Ison — single · EV 103 mph · LA +9° · 134 ft Alan Maloney — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +35° · 260 ft Rónald Samudio — single · EV 93 mph · LA +19° · 209 ft Destyn Thompson — single · EV 82 mph · LA -12° · 78 ft Ulises Barba — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +6° · 73 ft Edson López — single · EV 96 mph · LA +44° · 372 ft Jason Adams — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +39° · 403 ft Arkie Rubin — double · EV 105 mph · LA +42° · 441 ft Zaimir Schloss — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -0° · 70 ft Destyn Thompson — single · EV 83 mph · LA +8° · 79 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA +14° · 93 ft Kristian Alison — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +3° · 82 ft Dan Mills — double · EV 109 mph · LA +25° · 366 ft Maciek Stokke — double · EV 84 mph · LA +47° · 285 ft Alan Maloney — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +37° · 192 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA +14° · 151 ft Kristian Alison — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 226 ft Dan Mills — line_out · EV 79 mph · LA +20° · 165 ft Maciek Stokke — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -14° · 79 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 68 mph · LA -13° · 65 ft Alan Maloney — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +9° · 86 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Tigers
16% deserve-to-win  ·  6.1 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 9.6 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-0.6 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 1 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Zixuan Zheng 105 / +50° Pull Double 1.0 → 2 +1.00
Ricki Sears 93 / +38° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Ricki Sears 71 / +7° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Zixuan Zheng 94 / +28° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Karl Marion 98 / +1° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Orioles
84% deserve-to-win  ·  13.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -7.9 vs expected
contact: 20.5 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-6.5 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jason Adams 101 / +39° Pull Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Arkie Rubin 105 / +42° Center Double 3.3 → 2 -1.33
Maciek Stokke 84 / +47° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Dan Mills 89 / +35° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Edson López 96 / +44° Center Single 2.0 → 1 -1.01
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