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Nationals 6, Phillies 5                                     2026-08-12 · #1349
at Tannery Yards
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Philadelphia            5      0    5    8    0
Washington              6      -    6    5    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   cf ......    3   2   3   2   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  1.000
Andrade     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mattke      rf ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.250
Santos      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tabaracci   lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-DelSign pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Martín      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Moor    ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Vásquez     3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Israilo ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Skeen       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Awoniyi ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Gullett     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2  0.000
  e-Ka'apan pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Anthony     j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Ferguson-Re j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Cubas       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   5   8   3   0   0   5   4  12   0   2  0.296
  2B: Grizzlies 2 (33), Moor (25).
  SB: Grizzlies (12), Mattke (15).
  CS: Grizzlies (10), Mattke (6).
  GIDP: Santos (2).
  a-Ran for Tabaracci in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Martín in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Vásquez in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Skeen in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Awoniyi in the 8th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Thompkins   ss ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Corrales    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pastore     2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Houston     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
Devezin     rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Cheng       3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Fabra   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Baloy       lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     1b ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
Abadía      p  ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.333
  b-Cruz    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Migueli ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-DeMelo  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Crowdus     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
Totals                  25   6   5   2   0   0   5   6   7   0   2  0.200
  2B: Cheng (7), Fábrega (5).
  HBP: Crowdus (1).
  GIDP: Corrales (3), Pastore (3).
  a-Ran for Cheng in the 5th.
  b-Grounded out in the 7th.
  c-Batted in the 6th.
  d-Ran in the 6th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Gullett (L, 3-1) ....     8    5  19%    3    2    2    1    1    0   25    -
Izoje ...............    10    9  33%    2    2    2    1    3    0   35  1-1
Marte ...............    13   11  41%    0    2    2    4    3    0   50  1-0
Dias ................     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    0    0    3  2-0

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Abadía (W, 7-18) ....    32   27 100%    8    5    5    4   13    0  112    -

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-26)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Gullett (Outs 1-5) → Izoje (Outs 6-14) → Marte (Outs 15-25) → Dias (Outs 26-26)
CATCHER (C)       | Andrade (Outs 1-26)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Martín (Outs 1-26)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Skeen (Outs 1-26)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Vásquez (Outs 1-26)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Santos (Outs 1-26)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tabaracci (Outs 1-26)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-26)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mattke (Outs 1-26)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Abadía (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Houston (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Fábrega (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Cheng (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Corrales (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  Seconds: PHI o26 (5-0), WSN o26 (6-5).
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 95°F · Wind calm · Clear · Light rain · Humid. seed 64057.
  Powerplays: Nationals — Fabra NF (O17)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.78
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 22 Jahiem Moor Zach Grizzlies (2B) 1–0 —
T 24 Anthony Mattke Jahiem Moor (2B) 2–0 —
T 25 Zach Grizzlies Jerome Ka'apana (3B) 3–0 —
T 25 Zach Grizzlies Anthony Mattke (2B) 4–0 —
T 25 Zach Grizzlies Zach Grizzlies (1B) 5–0 —
B 4 Sammy Houston Damion Thompkins (2B) 5–1 0.65
B 5 Isaac Fábrega Cheng-wei Cheng (3B) 5–2 0.55
B 10 Cheng-wei Cheng Isaac Fábrega (3B) 5–3 0.53
B 12 Marcos Pastore Oscar Fabra (3B) 5–4 0.40
B 22 Frickson Abadía Dante DeMelo (3B) 5–5 0.60
B 24 Devron San Miguelito Erwin Crowdus (3B) 5–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.78
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 5 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Zach Grizzlies — double · EV 93 mph · LA +21° · 231 ft Bryan Andrade — line_out · EV 69 mph · LA +11° · 72 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — single · EV 83 mph · LA -27° · 79 ft Vitas Anthony — single · EV 82 mph · LA -16° · 78 ft Patrick DelSignore — line_out · EV 77 mph · LA +15° · 117 ft Allen Ferguson-Reynolds — single · EV 98 mph · LA +8° · 108 ft Anthony Mattke — fielders_choice · EV 85 mph · LA -6° · 80 ft Bryan Andrade — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +28° · 331 ft Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 84 mph · LA +18° · 164 ft Jahiem Moor — double · EV 93 mph · LA +35° · 325 ft Sandy Santos — double_play · EV 74 mph · LA -22° · 71 ft Anthony Mattke — single · EV 108 mph · LA +5° · 102 ft Bryan Andrade — line_out · EV 74 mph · LA +14° · 105 ft Zach Grizzlies — double · EV 104 mph · LA +16° · 236 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 3 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Damion Thompkins — single · EV 76 mph · LA +20° · 145 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +21° · 155 ft Renaldo Corrales — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -8° · 66 ft Kendry Baloy — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +32° · 311 ft Sammy Houston — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA -6° · 82 ft Isaac Fábrega — double · EV 93 mph · LA +28° · 286 ft Frickson Abadía — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +47° · 338 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — double · EV 96 mph · LA +41° · 367 ft Frickson Abadía — single · EV 105 mph · LA +7° · 100 ft Sammy Houston — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA +19° · 154 ft Marcos Pastore — double_play · EV 94 mph · LA +8° · 90 ft Devron San Miguelito — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +52° · 385 ft Oscar Fabra — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -10° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
38% deserve-to-win  ·  5.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -0.4 vs expected
contact: 9.7 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+1.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bryan Andrade 100 / +28° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Zach Grizzlies 93 / +21° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Jahiem Moor 93 / +35° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Adhithya Tabaracci 83 / -27° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Vitas Anthony 82 / -16° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Nationals
62% deserve-to-win  ·  6.9 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -0.9 vs expected
contact: 8.7 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.7 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Isaac Fábrega 93 / +28° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Frickson Abadía 92 / +47° Oppo Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Kendry Baloy 93 / +32° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Devron San Miguelito 100 / +52° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.62
Sammy Houston 79 / +19° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
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