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Cubs 2, Royals 1                                            2026-08-23 · #1460
at Sokk Bowl
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 2    2    3    0
Kansas City             1    1    4    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Solis       ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Nealon  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cody        cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Lamas   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Segovia     rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Heinze      c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Shurtle ph ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
May         3b ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Casey       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Sapriss ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Seol        lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  e-O'Flahe ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Campaz      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
  f-Santana ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  g-Palermo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  h-Lamas   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-McCullo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  23   2   3   1   0   0   2   3   8   0   1  0.130
  2B: Shurtleff (8).
  HBP: May (6).
  GIDP: Sarkissian (2), May 2 (4), Verhoeven (2).
  a-Grounded out for Sarkissian in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Cody in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Heinze in the 5th.
  d-Struck out for Casey in the 7th.
  e-Singled for Seol in the 7th.
  f-Singled for Campaz in the 3rd.
  g-Struck out in the 6th.
  h-Struck out for Lamas in the 6th.
  i-Grounded out in the 9th.

ROYALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Hackett     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Altamir pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Graham      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Vera    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alinen      rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
  c-Hsia    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Tanguilig   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Sabella     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Rosales     3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Talavera    cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Linnehan    c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Gregory ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Monson      2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Devens  pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Fuenzal ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Selden  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Press       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  27   1   4   0   0   0   1   2  10   0   0  0.148
  CS: Devens (7).
  GIDP: Alinen (3), Sabella (10).
  a-Ran for Hackett in the 3rd.
  b-Struck out for Graham in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Alinen in the 4th.
  d-Struck out for Linnehan in the 7th.
  e-Ran for Monson in the 3rd.
  f-Grounded out for Vera in the 9th.
  g-Grounded out in the 9th.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Campaz (W, 11-11) ...    28   27 100%    4    1    1    2   10    0   91    -

ROYALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Hackett (L, 11-13) ..    26   25  93%    2    2    2    3    8    0   81    -

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Casey (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cody (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-27)

ROYALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-25)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Hackett (Outs 1-25)
CATCHER (C)       | Linnehan (Outs 1-25)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Tanguilig (Outs 1-25)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Monson (Outs 1-25)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rosales (Outs 1-25)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Sabella (Outs 1-25)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Graham (Outs 1-25)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Talavera (Outs 1-25)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Alinen (Outs 1-25)

  Batting order: Royals (home) batted first; Cubs batted second.
  First pitch 7:15 PM CT. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 796336.
  Powerplays: Cubs — Saprissa NF (O16)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.22    Peak faced 1.50
    27 outs left: 0.22
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 26 Chris Selden Yung-chi Hsia (2B) 0–1 —
T 8 Samuel Sarkissian Eddie Solis (3B) 1–1 0.16
T 25 Bryce Shurtleff Erick May (1B) 2–1 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.22
Peak faced 1.50
27 outs left 0.22
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Sokk Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 278' · CF 521' · RF 288' · 32' wall). Bathtub.
Wire Basket
Cubs — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
278' 521' 288' Wall 32' Erick May — double_play · EV 61 mph · LA -14° · 58 ft Douglas Casey — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +28° · 194 ft Samuel Sarkissian — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 119 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 74 mph · LA -18° · 70 ft Eddie Solis — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Bryce Shurtleff — ground_out · EV 85 mph · LA -12° · 81 ft Phillip Nealon — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA -7° · 92 ft Wyatt Conn — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -4° · 84 ft Brian Verhoeven — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +2° · 76 ft Josh McCullough — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +14° · 164 ft Samuel Sarkissian — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA -6° · 60 ft Erick May — double_play · EV 54 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Bryce Shurtleff — double · EV 78 mph · LA +45° · 241 ft
Royals — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 4 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
278' 521' 288' Wall 32' Efraín Sabella — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 130 ft Luis Rosales — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Reinaldo Talavera — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 83 ft Kael Monson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 83 ft Finn Hackett — single · EV 82 mph · LA +25° · 207 ft Beau Devens — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Jhonder Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +2° · 87 ft Chris Selden — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Zach Alinen — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Landon Tanguilig — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft Luis Rosales — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +7° · 87 ft Rich Linnehan — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +43° · 337 ft Luis Rosales — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 126 ft Landon Tanguilig — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +25° · 177 ft Zach Alinen — single · EV 94 mph · LA +11° · 133 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
52% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 4.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-1.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Bryce Shurtleff 78 / +45° Pull Double 0.1 → 2 +1.85
Josh McCullough 94 / +14° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Jaume Santana 74 / -18° Oppo Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Phillip Nealon 96 / -7° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Samuel Sarkissian 76 / +16° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Royals
48% deserve-to-win  ·  2.7 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -1.7 vs expected
contact: 6.8 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rich Linnehan 92 / +43° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.18
Finn Hackett 82 / +25° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.62
Efraín Sabella 76 / +17° Center Double Play 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Kael Monson 76 / +10° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Reinaldo Talavera 76 / +10° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
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