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Nationals 1, Phillies 0                                     2026-08-25 · #1479
at Tannery Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
Philadelphia            0    0    3    0
Washington              1    1    4    0

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Grizzlies   cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
Mattke      rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Logar       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Alvarado    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Santos      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Israilov    lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ka'apana    ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Moor    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Vásquez     c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Martín  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Sippel      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Andrade ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Awoniyi ph ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  e-Skeen   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Borges  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Anthony     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Ferguson-Re j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  24   0   3   1   0   0   0   2  13   0   0  0.125
  2B: Vásquez (3).
  CS: Martín (6), Awoniyi (11).
  GIDP: Andrade (5).
  a-Walked for Ka'apana in the 4th.
  b-Ran for Vásquez in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Sippel in the 3rd.
  d-Batted for Martín in the 4th.
  e-Ran in the 4th.
  f-Batted in the 4th.

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cruz        cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Jones-W pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Pastore     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Bothwell    p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Burrows     c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Thompkins   3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cheng       rf ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Baloy       1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Menz        ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  12   1   4   1   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.333
  2B: Cruz (6).
  SB: Cheng (11).
  a-Ran for Cruz in the 4th.

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Sippel (L, 3-2) .....    12   11  41%    4    1    1    1    2    0   40    -

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bothwell (W, 3-6) ...    15   14  52%    1    0    0    1    8    0   43    -
Cottle ..............    12   13  48%    2    0    0    1    6    0   46  1-0

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-11)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Sippel (Outs 1-11)
CATCHER (C)       | Vásquez (Outs 1-11)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-11)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santos (Outs 1-11)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alvarado (Outs 1-11)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Ka'apana (Outs 1-11)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Israilov (Outs 1-11)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Grizzlies (Outs 1-11)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Mattke (Outs 1-11)

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Bothwell (Outs 1-14) → Cottle (Outs 15-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Menz (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cruz (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cheng (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Nationals (home) batted second; Phillies batted first.
  First pitch 6:40 PM ET. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 293669.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.11    Peak faced 0.19
    27 outs left: 0.11
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 11 Cheng-wei Cheng Raz Menz (3B) 0–1 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.11
Peak faced 0.19
27 outs left 0.11
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Tannery Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 331' · CF 438' · RF 348' · 9' wall). Cavernous.
Phillies — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Anthony Mattke — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +16° · 150 ft Marco Logar — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 103 ft Daniel Israilov — ground_out · EV 61 mph · LA +6° · 58 ft Jerome Ka'apana — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +11° · 73 ft Alberto Vásquez — double · EV 90 mph · LA +20° · 212 ft Emil Sippel — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -2° · 56 ft Vitas Anthony — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +12° · 110 ft Marco Logar — fielders_choice · EV 85 mph · LA -12° · 81 ft Zach Grizzlies — single · EV 67 mph · LA +20° · 117 ft Bryan Andrade — double_play · EV 66 mph · LA -4° · 63 ft Bright Awoniyi — single · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 121 ft
Nationals — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
331' 438' 348' Robby Bothwell — single · EV 114 mph · LA +7° · 108 ft Marcos Pastore — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +53° · 391 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — single · EV 119 mph · LA +6° · 113 ft Raz Menz — ground_out · EV 91 mph · LA -1° · 87 ft José Cruz — double · EV 116 mph · LA +12° · 219 ft Kendry Baloy — ground_out · EV 89 mph · LA -10° · 84 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — single · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Phillies
10% deserve-to-win  ·  1.1 expected runs
actual 0 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 4.0 (-1.0 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alberto Vásquez 90 / +20° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Marco Logar 92 / +9° Pull Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Anthony Mattke 84 / +16° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Vitas Anthony 82 / +12° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Zach Grizzlies 67 / +20° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.58
Nationals
90% deserve-to-win  ·  3.2 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.2 vs expected
contact: 5.0 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marcos Pastore 101 / +53° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Cheng-wei Cheng 100 / -9° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
José Cruz 116 / +12° Pull Double 1.5 → 2 +0.48
Raz Menz 91 / -1° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.39
Kendry Baloy 89 / -10° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.37
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