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Orioles 5, Canaries 2                                       2026-08-25 · #1483
at Rudy Yards
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                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey              2    2    3    0
Baltimore               5    5    7    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cordero     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Nachand     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Richey      cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  rf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Morriso pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Junior      p  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Navarro     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Lacava      3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Kerr    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Rushing     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Savides     ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Pastore pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  27   2   3   1   0   0   1   3  13   0   0  0.111
  2B: Hollenbeck (15).
  SB: Morrison (4), Kerr (7).
  CS: Cordero (15), Pastore (8).
  a-Ran for Hollenbeck in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Lacava in the 9th.
  c-Ran in the 7th.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Dennis      p  ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.500
Foust       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Alison  ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Sigourney   2b ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Schloss     cf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.333
Flowers     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-López   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Stokke      3b ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Purchas ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        rf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Michulk pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Samudio     1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Kautz       c  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  e-Barba   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Rubin       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   5   7   4   0   0   5   8   5   0   0  0.269
  2B: Dennis (3), Schloss (14), Stokke (3), Kautz (23).
  SB: Sigourney (14).
  CS: López (8).
  GIDP: Foust (8), Samudio (6).
  a-Singled for Foust in the 9th.
  b-Ran for Flowers in the 7th.
  c-Struck out for Stokke in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Ison in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Kautz in the 3rd.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Junior (L, 4-1) .....    31   24  107  3.5    7    5    5    8    3    0    -
Waidner .............     3    3   10  3.3    0    0    0    0    2    0  2-0

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Dennis (W, 16-3) ....    28   27  119  4.2    2    2    2    3   13    0    -

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Junior (Outs 1-24) → Waidner (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Rushing (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Nachand (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Lacava (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Savides (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Richey (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Dennis (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Kautz (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Stokke (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Foust (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted first; Canaries batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM ET. Weather: 81°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 347033.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 12.00
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 3 Dyllan Ison Brett Dennis (3B) 0–1 —
B 3 Dyllan Ison Zaimir Schloss (2B) 0–2 —
B 6 Rónald Samudio Geoff Michulka (3B) 0–3 —
B 10 Korey Flowers Maciek Stokke (3B) 0–4 —
B 24 Kristian Alison Brett Dennis (2B) 0–5 —
T 16 Grant Cordero Ulises Morrison (3B) 1–5 1.36
T 26 Jesse Woodall Jerome Kerr (3B) 2–5 12.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 12.00
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Canaries — Batted Balls
7 BIP· 1 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Jhornan Junior — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +47° · 384 ft Roberto Lacava — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +37° · 345 ft Welby Richey — ground_out · EV 93 mph · LA -3° · 89 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — double · EV 100 mph · LA +42° · 398 ft Grant Cordero — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +31° · 260 ft Jesse Woodall — single · EV 81 mph · LA +19° · 163 ft Jhornan Junior — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +27° · 215 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
21 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Sidney Foust — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +28° · 248 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — ground_out · EV 71 mph · LA +3° · 67 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +6° · 81 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 146 ft Rill Kautz — double · EV 110 mph · LA +15° · 237 ft Maciek Stokke — double · EV 87 mph · LA +20° · 196 ft Zaimir Schloss — double · EV 91 mph · LA +17° · 187 ft Destyn Thompson — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +40° · 264 ft Brett Dennis — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 97 ft Ulises Barba — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -9° · 60 ft Kristian Alison — single · EV 83 mph · LA +21° · 186 ft Rónald Samudio — double_play · EV 91 mph · LA +9° · 102 ft Dyllan Ison — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -14° · 77 ft Korey Flowers — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +32° · 316 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — single · EV 56 mph · LA -13° · 54 ft Sidney Foust — double_play · EV 56 mph · LA -5° · 53 ft Zaimir Schloss — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +21° · 179 ft Brett Dennis — double · EV 109 mph · LA +47° · 476 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -13° · 77 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — single · EV 96 mph · LA +15° · 179 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — fielders_choice · EV 63 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
5% deserve-to-win  ·  2.6 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.6 vs expected
contact: 7.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-4.3 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 2 CS (-0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jhornan Junior 98 / +47° Pull Out 2.0 → 0 -2.01
Roberto Lacava 95 / +37° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Tripp Hollenbeck 100 / +42° Pull Double 2.6 → 2 -0.59
Welby Richey 93 / -3° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.39
Jesse Woodall 81 / +19° Oppo Single 0.6 → 1 +0.39
Orioles
95% deserve-to-win  ·  11.7 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -6.7 vs expected
contact: 14.7 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-3.7 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brett Dennis 109 / +47° Pull Double 3.6 → 2 -1.62
Maciek Stokke 87 / +20° Pull Double 0.6 → 2 +1.39
Zaimir Schloss 91 / +17° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Korey Flowers 93 / +32° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Mackenzie Sigourney 56 / -13° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
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