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Brewers 11, Expos 6  (1 SI)                                 2026-08-27 · #1506
at Huerta Stadium
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                        1      S    R    H    E
Milwaukee               3      8   11    8    1
Montreal                3      3    6   12    1

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Williams    ss ......    5   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.200
Trejo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mesidor     c  ......    4   3   2   1   0   1   3   1   1   0   0  0.500
Espinoza    rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Edwards     lf ......    4   2   2   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.500
Kaplan      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Hernandez   3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Struthe ph ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Saravia     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Fossati ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Ebun        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Irving  ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  d-Kass    ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Yani    pr ......    2   2   1   1   0   0   3   0   1   0   0  0.500
  f-Johnsto pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Nava        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ayers       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Eggleston   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  33  11   8   5   0   1  10   8  12   0   0  0.242
  2B: Williams (34), Yani (17), Mesidor (36), Edwards (19), Hernandez (4).
  HR: Mesidor (16), off Bork.
  SB: Mesidor (10).
  E: Espinoza (5).
  HBP: Ayers (2).
  GIDP: Hernandez (2), Struthers (2).
  a-Batted for Hernandez in the 8th.
  b-Batted for Saravia in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Ebun in the 6th.
  d-Batted for Nava in the 7th.
  e-Ran in the 7th.
  f-Ran in the 9th.

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Solórzano   lf ......    3   0   2   1   0   0   3   1   0   0   0  0.667
Gareca      3b ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Creek       rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.500
López       p  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   2  0.000
Grizzlies   c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Hawwas  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Geffrard    cf ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.667
Goodson     2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Fieldin pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Katsuhisa   1b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
MacKay      ss ......    5   1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.400
  c-Spence  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Currier     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Morales     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  31   6  12   1   0   0   6   6   4   0   2  0.387
  2B: Solórzano (27).
  SB: Fielding (1).
  CS: Solórzano (11).
  E: Geffrard (1).
  HBP: Katsuhisa (1).
  GIDP: Fielding (6).
  a-Batted for Grizzlies in the 7th.
  b-Ran for Goodson in the 3rd.
  c-Ran in the 8th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ebun (W, 21-6) ......    25   19  70%    8    4    1    5    1    0   90    -
Freeman .............    12   11  41%    4    2    2    1    3    0   43  1-0

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
López (L, 18-2) .....    28   19  70%    7    7    5    6    7    0  101    -
Matthews ............    11   10  37%    0    0    0    1    5    0   34  1-0
Bork ................     3    1   4%    1    4    3    1    0    1    7  1-1

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ebun (Outs 1-19) → Freeman (Outs 20-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Trejo (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hernandez (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Edwards (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Saravia (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Espinoza (Outs 1-30)

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-30)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | López (Outs 1-19) → Matthews (Outs 20-29) → Bork (Outs 30-30)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-30)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Katsuhisa (Outs 1-30)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-30)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gareca (Outs 1-30)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | MacKay (Outs 1-30)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-30)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Geffrard (Outs 1-30)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Creek (Outs 1-30)

  Batting order: Expos (home) batted first; Brewers batted second.
  Super-innings: 1.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 97°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 329906.
  Powerplays: Brewers — Kass NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Bork 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.78    Peak faced 1.00
    27 outs left: 0.78
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 8 Román Gareca Román Gareca (3B) 0–1 —
B 24 Rónald Solórzano Raiden MacKay (3B) 0–2 —
B 26 Masaaki Katsuhisa Roscoe Spence (3B) 0–3 —
T 3 German Hernandez Daniel Edwards (2B) 1–3 0.75
T 14 Percy Nava Stan Mesidor (3B) 2–3 1.15
T 16 Jesse Williams Graydon Yani (3B) 3–3 1.09
ST 29 Kyron Struthers Daniel Edwards (2B) 4–3 —
ST 29 Graydon Yani Thierry Kass (3B) 5–3 —
ST 29 Graydon Yani Kyron Struthers (2B) 6–3 —
ST 29 Graydon Yani Raul Johnston (1B) 7–3 —
ST 29 Stan Mesidor Graydon Yani (2B) 8–3 —
ST 29 Stan Mesidor Clifford Irving (1B) 9–3 —
ST 29 Stan Mesidor Stan Mesidor (HR) 10–3 —
ST 29 Jesse Williams Stan Mesidor (3B) 11–3 —
SB 28 Devron López Omni Fielding (3B) 11–4 —
SB 29 Rónald Solórzano Devron López (3B) 11–5 —
SB 29 Rónald Solórzano Fran Creek (2B) 11–6 —
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.78
Peak faced 1.00
27 outs left 0.78
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Huerta Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 288' · CF 412' · RF 348' · 50' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Brewers — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 2 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Jesse Williams — double · EV 93 mph · LA +34° · 322 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 90 mph · LA -6° · 85 ft German Hernandez — double · EV 102 mph · LA +11° · 161 ft Sergio Saravia — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -7° · 79 ft Francis Trejo — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Frank Ebun — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA -8° · 55 ft Steven Kaplan — error · EV 79 mph · LA +17° · 142 ft Alan Fossati — fly_out · EV 71 mph · LA +47° · 200 ft Donni Eggleston — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +30° · 222 ft Kyron Struthers — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA -29° · 76 ft Stan Mesidor — double · EV 82 mph · LA +43° · 269 ft German Hernandez — double_play · EV 81 mph · LA +3° · 77 ft Kyron Struthers — single · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 118 ft Graydon Yani — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 226 ft Jesse Williams — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +29° · 195 ft Andres Espinoza — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +26° · 220 ft Stan Mesidor — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +38° · 254 ft Daniel Edwards — double · EV 112 mph · LA +25° · 385 ft Stan Mesidor — hr · EV 105 mph · LA +40° · 432 ft Jesse Williams — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +9° · 119 ft
Expos — Batted Balls
24 BIP· 11 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Román Gareca — single · EV 91 mph · LA +23° · 236 ft Devron López — fly_out · EV 96 mph · LA +36° · 355 ft Quincy Geffrard — single · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 199 ft Marquis Goodson — single · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 331 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +43° · 304 ft Raiden MacKay — single · EV 84 mph · LA +23° · 206 ft Rónald Solórzano — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +21° · 265 ft Omni Fielding — double_play · EV 77 mph · LA +9° · 70 ft Elliott Currier — line_out · EV 67 mph · LA +26° · 138 ft Curt Gibson — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +31° · 353 ft Akhtam Abu Hawwas — fly_out · EV 101 mph · LA +33° · 372 ft Román Gareca — fly_out · EV 91 mph · LA +34° · 304 ft Fran Creek — single · EV 74 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Maciek Grizzlies — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA -23° · 67 ft Quincy Geffrard — fly_out · EV 99 mph · LA +27° · 317 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +30° · 236 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 100 mph · LA +14° · 187 ft Devron López — error · EV 78 mph · LA +10° · 79 ft Raiden MacKay — single · EV 87 mph · LA +24° · 226 ft Quincy Geffrard — single · EV 57 mph · LA -22° · 54 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — single · EV 69 mph · LA +12° · 80 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 94 mph · LA +17° · 198 ft Román Gareca — single · EV 92 mph · LA +25° · 258 ft Raiden MacKay — fielders_choice · EV 93 mph · LA +6° · 88 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
45% deserve-to-win  ·  9.3 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 14.7 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 16.0 (+1.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Stan Mesidor 82 / +43° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Stan Mesidor 105 / +40° Pull Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.12
Jesse Williams 96 / +9° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Jesse Williams 93 / +34° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
German Hernandez 102 / +11° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Expos
55% deserve-to-win  ·  10.3 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -4.3 vs expected
contact: 18.3 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (-5.3 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Akhtam Abu Hawwas 101 / +33° Oppo Out 1.9 → 0 -1.93
Devron López 96 / +36° Center Out 1.5 → 0 -1.45
Curt Gibson 100 / +31° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Rónald Solórzano 99 / +21° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Rónald Solórzano 94 / +17° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
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