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Orioles 7, Guardians 5                                      2026-08-28 · #1512
at Cleveland Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Baltimore               7    7    6    0
Cleveland               5    5    3    1

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Sigourney   2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Samudio     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Ison        cf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Maciejc ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Stokke      ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Purchas ph ......    3   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Alison      1b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Michulka    c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Kautz   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Flowers     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Foust       3b ......    4   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Shaffer     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Barba   pr ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Heath       rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Mateer  pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Schloss pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Rubin       j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Thompson    j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  30   7   6   1   0   0   5   5  10   0   0  0.200
  2B: Foust (18).
  SB: Barba (10).
  CS: Thompson (1).
  GIDP: Foust (9).
  a-Walked for Ison in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Stokke in the 4th.
  c-Singled for Michulka in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Shaffer in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Kautz in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Maciejczak in the 7th.

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Siereveld   cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Granberry   2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Enquist pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Céspedes    ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Ardón   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Cabrera     c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Bannatyne   3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   0  0.000
Tanner      rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Anwunah ph ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Hutson      1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   1   0   0  0.000
Carmona     lf ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   2   0   1  0.000
Harthan     p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Rollins pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Bronaug ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Velez   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  24   5   3   0   0   0   5   9  13   0   1  0.125
  E: Granberry (5).
  GIDP: Siereveld (4), Céspedes (2).
  Squeeze: Carmona (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Granberry in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Céspedes in the 6th.
  c-Batted for Tanner in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Harthan in the 3rd.
  e-Batted for Rollins in the 3rd.
  f-Ran in the 7th.

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Shaffer (W, 11-4) ...    22   17   70  3.2    3    4    4    6    7    0    -
Schmelzle (F, 29) ...    10   10   44  4.4    0    1    1    3    6    0  3-1

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Harthan (L, 7-11) ...    27   19  101  3.7    6    7    2    5    4    0    -
Yano ................     7    8   33  4.7    0    0    0    0    6    0  2-0

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Shaffer (Outs 1-17) → Schmelzle (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Michulka (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Sigourney (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Foust (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Stokke (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Ison (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Heath (Outs 1-27)

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Harthan (Outs 1-19) → Yano (Outs 20-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Hutson (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Granberry (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Bannatyne (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Carmona (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Siereveld (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Tanner (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Guardians (home) batted second; Orioles batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 75°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 328787.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 2.25
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 2.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Rill Kautz Ulises Barba (3B) 1–0 —
T 9 Kristian Alison Sidney Foust (3B) 2–0 —
T 11 Dyllan Ison Ahmad Heath (3B) 3–0 —
T 13 Mackenzie Sigourney Dylan Purchase (3B) 4–0 —
T 18 Shawqi Maciejczak Zaimir Schloss (3B) 5–0 —
T 19 Destyn Thompson Kristian Alison (3B) 6–0 —
T 19 Destyn Thompson Dylan Purchase (3B) 7–0 —
B 6 Clint Bronaugh Boris Carmona (2B) 7–1 1.00
B 7 Boris Carmona Doug Bannatyne (3B) 7–2 0.90
B 16 Doug Bannatyne Oren Hutson (3B) 7–3 1.36
B 17 Oren Hutson Sam Enquist (3B) 7–4 1.20
B 19 Clint Bronaugh Júnior Ardón (3B) 7–5 1.12
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 2.25
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 2.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Cleveland Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 315' · CF 410' · RF 349' · 9' wall). Balanced.
Flag Pole in Play
Orioles — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 5 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Mackenzie Sigourney — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 230 ft Rónald Samudio — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +4° · 87 ft Korey Flowers — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +35° · 235 ft Sidney Foust — fly_out · EV 70 mph · LA +32° · 178 ft Rill Kautz — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Arkie Rubin — single · EV 76 mph · LA +11° · 88 ft Dylan Purchase — error · EV 76 mph · LA +2° · 72 ft Kreigh Mateer — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +39° · 332 ft Destyn Thompson — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 83 ft Sidney Foust — double · EV 92 mph · LA +19° · 208 ft Kristian Alison — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +35° · 218 ft Dyllan Ison — fielders_choice · EV 53 mph · LA -3° · 51 ft Mackenzie Sigourney — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +31° · 299 ft Ulises Barba — single · EV 78 mph · LA +22° · 171 ft Dylan Purchase — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 165 ft Kreigh Mateer — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +15° · 166 ft Sidney Foust — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -22° · 49 ft Rónald Samudio — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 95 ft
Guardians — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
315' 410' 349' Kemari Granberry — single · EV 78 mph · LA +21° · 160 ft Doug Bannatyne — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -1° · 49 ft Frederick Harthan — single · EV 92 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft Clint Bronaugh — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +1° · 87 ft Amir Anwunah — single · EV 52 mph · LA +0° · 49 ft Marcos Siereveld — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +3° · 49 ft Tayavek Céspedes — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +5° · 49 ft Kemari Granberry — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Marcos Siereveld — double_play · EV 68 mph · LA +13° · 83 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Orioles
67% deserve-to-win  ·  4.6 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +2.4 vs expected
contact: 7.6 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-0.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Sidney Foust 92 / +19° Oppo Double 0.9 → 2 +1.10
Kreigh Mateer 92 / +39° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Kreigh Mateer 92 / +15° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Mackenzie Sigourney 92 / +31° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.74
Rill Kautz 76 / +14° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Guardians
33% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.7 vs expected
contact: 2.6 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+0.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Amir Anwunah 52 / +0° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Frederick Harthan 92 / +8° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Kemari Granberry 76 / +14° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Kemari Granberry 78 / +21° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Clint Bronaugh 92 / +1° Pull Out 0.4 → 0 -0.41
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