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Reds 4, Cubs 2                                              2026-08-28 · #1513
at Pino Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Chicago                 2    2    1    0
Cincinnati              4    4    4    0

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Segovia     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Heinze      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
May         2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Cody    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Shurtleff   1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Casey       ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Seol        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-McCullo ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Kurth   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Saprissa    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Campaz      p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Lamas   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  e-Hollowe pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Palermo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  g-Wambach pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  h-Lamas   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  26   2   1   0   0   0   0   5  15   0   0  0.038
  SB: Campaz (2).
  CS: Hollowell (15).
  a-Struck out for May in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Seol in the 5th.
  c-Batted for Sarkissian in the 6th.
  d-Ran in the 5th.
  e-Ran for Lamas in the 7th.
  f-Ran for McCullough in the 8th.
  g-Ran in the 8th.
  h-Grounded out for Hollowell in the 9th.

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Subhash     ss ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Tsoubanos   lf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
David       c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Levy        cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Murakami    2b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Suarez      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Ribera      3b ......    2   0   1   0   1   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Acosta      1b ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Post        p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  1.000
  a-Morejón pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                   9   4   4   1   1   0   4   2   5   0   2  0.444
  2B: Subhash (14).
  3B: Ribera (1).
  a-Ran for Post in the 3rd.

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Campaz (L, 11-12) ...    11    8   33  3.0    4    4    4    2    5    0    -

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Post (W, 9-6) .......    30   27  119  4.0    1    2    2    5   15    0    -

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-8)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Campaz (Outs 1-8)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-8)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-8)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | May (Outs 1-8)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Saprissa (Outs 1-8)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Casey (Outs 1-8)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-8)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Sarkissian (Outs 1-8)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Segovia (Outs 1-8)

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | David (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Acosta (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Ribera (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Levy (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Suarez (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Reds (home) batted second; Cubs batted first.
  First pitch 5:45 PM CT. Weather: 99°F · Wind in · Clear · Humid. seed 187274.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.33
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.00
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 22 Bryce Shurtleff Harold Palermo (3B) 1–0 —
T 26 Teófilo Segovia Kendrick Wambach (3B) 2–0 —
B 5 Zachary Subhash Emmanuel Murakami (2B) 2–1 0.27
B 6 George Post Zachary Subhash (3B) 2–2 0.14
B 8 Felix Ribera Dariel Morejón (3B) 2–3 0.00
B 8 Felix Ribera Johnny Acosta (2B) 2–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.33
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.00
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Pino Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 368' · CF 405' · RF 328' · 15' wall). Balanced.
Tal's Hill
Cubs — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 1 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Yong-soo Seol — ground_out · EV 74 mph · LA -11° · 70 ft Wyatt Conn — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +2° · 74 ft Ryan Schellenger — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 167 ft Josh McCullough — fly_out · EV 86 mph · LA +33° · 267 ft Mikel Lamas — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -10° · 80 ft Teófilo Segovia — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -17° · 80 ft Ivan Saprissa — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA -5° · 62 ft Davion Kurth — fly_out · EV 93 mph · LA +33° · 315 ft Douglas Casey — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +17° · 152 ft
Reds — Batted Balls
4 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
368' 405' 328' Wall 15' Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 100 mph · LA -16° · 95 ft Zachary Subhash — double · EV 106 mph · LA +21° · 297 ft George Post — single · EV 108 mph · LA +10° · 154 ft Felix Ribera — triple · EV 99 mph · LA +23° · 278 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Cubs
33% deserve-to-win  ·  2.2 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.2 vs expected
contact: 3.8 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 1.0 (-2.8 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Davion Kurth 93 / +33° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Douglas Casey 83 / +17° Oppo Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Ryan Schellenger 76 / +23° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Josh McCullough 86 / +33° Center Out 0.4 → 0 -0.44
Teófilo Segovia 84 / -17° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
Reds
67% deserve-to-win  ·  3.1 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +0.9 vs expected
contact: 4.7 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (+2.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Felix Ribera 99 / +23° Oppo Triple 1.2 → 3 +1.77
Ed Tsoubanos 100 / -16° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.54
George Post 108 / +10° Center Single 1.4 → 1 -0.38
Zachary Subhash 106 / +21° Center Double 1.7 → 2 +0.32
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