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Marlins 5, Red Sox 2                                        2026-08-28 · #1514
at North Ground
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Miami                   5      0    5    4    0
Boston                  2      0    2    2    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tillman     p  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0   1   .000
Enterline   rf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.333
Suárez      3b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Altamirano  1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Suggs       cf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0   0  0.000
Nantze      ss ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
Dibert      2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Blackman    c  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Chieh-yu    lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.250
Burns       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   5   4   0   0   0   4   6   5   0   1  0.148
  SB: Dibert 2 (5).
  CS: Suggs (8), Dibert (5), Chieh-yu (19).
  HBP: Nantze (2).
  GIDP: Blackman (4).


RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Rowley  ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Pfister     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Núñez       lf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Nytes       1b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Hobbs   pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Falby       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Miranda ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Cameron     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Echever pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Saravia     ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Hodges      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hampton     p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Pope    pr ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Venegas ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Tatum   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  24   2   2   0   0   0   2   7   7   0   0  0.083
  SB: Pope (10).
  HBP: Echeverría (2).
  GIDP: Núñez (2), Saravia (7), Hodges (4).
  a-Batted for Suazo in the 6th.
  b-Ran for Nytes in the 4th.
  c-Batted for Falby in the 7th.
  d-Ran for Cameron in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Hampton in the 7th.
  f-Batted in the 4th.
  g-Ran for Venegas in the 6th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Tillman (W, 2-9) ....    32   27   97  3.0    2    2    2    7    7    0    -

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hampton .............    19   17   63  3.3    1    2    2    4    3    0    -
Martín (L, 6-13) ....     7    5   23  3.3    0    3    3    1    2    0  2-2
Schellenger .........     7    5   18  2.6    2    0    0    1    0    0  1-0

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Tillman (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Suárez (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nantze (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Suggs (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hampton (Outs 1-17) → Martín (Outs 18-22) → Schellenger (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hodges (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Saravia (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Núñez (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Pfister (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted second; Marlins batted first.
  Seconds: MIA o26 (5-0), BOS o26 (2-5).
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 96°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain. seed 434120.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 4.00
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.67
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 14 Dillon Tillman Cary Nantze (3B) 1–0 —
T 15 Wallace Enterline Carson Suggs (3B) 2–0 —
T 18 Cary Nantze Wallace Enterline (3B) 3–0 —
T 18 Alex Dibert Dillon Tillman (3B) 4–0 —
T 20 Montavious Chieh-yu Carson Suggs (3B) 5–0 —
B 12 Diego Saravia Ferdi Pope (3B) 5–1 1.00
B 23 Ferdi Pope Ferdi Pope (3B) 5–2 3.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 4.00
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +15° · 117 ft Kendall Suárez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -14° · 72 ft Jean Altamirano — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 226 ft Carson Suggs — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 72 ft Cary Nantze — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -3° · 72 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +11° · 60 ft Don Burns — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +39° · 227 ft Ramon Blackman — double_play · EV 61 mph · LA +5° · 58 ft Alex Dibert — fielders_choice · EV 58 mph · LA +10° · 60 ft Jean Altamirano — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 307 ft Wallace Enterline — single · EV 76 mph · LA +3° · 72 ft Wallace Enterline — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 87 ft Alex Dibert — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft Ramon Blackman — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +33° · 210 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +50° · 228 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — single · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 168 ft Ramon Blackman — single · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 135 ft Alex Dibert — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -18° · 49 ft Kendall Suárez — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 223 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Manuel Suazo — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -17° · 50 ft Pancho Pfister — fly_out · EV 52 mph · LA +36° · 103 ft Walter Núñez — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 127 ft Inman Nytes — single · EV 52 mph · LA +15° · 60 ft Junie Hampton — fielders_choice · EV 52 mph · LA -17° · 49 ft Raymond Rowley — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 136 ft Kervin Venegas — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +18° · 134 ft Ferdi Pope — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +27° · 188 ft Walter Núñez — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +8° · 49 ft Diego Saravia — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -9° · 49 ft Jacob Hodges — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA +20° · 78 ft Raymond Rowley — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Daylan Miranda — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -10° · 49 ft Walter Núñez — double_play · EV 55 mph · LA +2° · 52 ft Diego Saravia — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -17° · 49 ft Walter Núñez — single · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 123 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
28% deserve-to-win  ·  3.4 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  +1.6 vs expected
contact: 5.4 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 3 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jean Altamirano 92 / +32° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Wallace Enterline 76 / +3° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Wallace Enterline 76 / +15° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Montavious Chieh-yu 76 / +23° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Ramon Blackman 80 / +16° Pull Single 0.5 → 1 +0.46
Red Sox
72% deserve-to-win  ·  5.5 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -3.5 vs expected
contact: 4.6 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-2.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Inman Nytes 52 / +15° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.67
Walter Núñez 76 / +17° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Raymond Rowley 76 / +18° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Kervin Venegas 76 / +18° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Jacob Hodges 55 / +20° Center Double Play 0.4 → 0 -0.41
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