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Padres 13, Beavers 1                                        2026-08-30 · #1530
at Saitch Coliseum
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                        1      2    R    H    E
Portland                1      0    1    1    0
San Diego              13      0   13    7    0

BEAVERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Tessema     2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Hydrick     3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Turenne     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Vahaly      ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Fuenzalida  lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Guerra      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Waters      c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Holzworth   1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Giammalva   p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Clement ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   1   1   1   0   0   0   3   9   0   0  0.040
  2B: Fuenzalida (12).
  SB: Fuenzalida (7).
  HBP: Tessema (7).
  GIDP: Turenne (5), Holzworth (2).
  a-Batted in the 6th.

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Susnjar     lf ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   2   0   0  0.333
Bennette    p  ......    2   3   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Andrade     1b ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Schwinger   rf ......    4   2   1   0   0   1   2   0   2   0   0  0.250
Manzano     cf ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Staten      ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Salcido     2b ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   1   0   0  0.333
Lettiere    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   1  0.000
Banuelos    3b ......    4   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  a-Alemu   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cleveland   j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  31  13   7   1   0   2  12   5  10   0   1  0.226
  2B: Susnjar (8).
  HR: Andrade (2), off Giammalva; Schwinger (4), off Ghea.
  CS: Staten (4).
  HBP: Manzano (2).
  Squeeze: Lettiere (1 RBI).
  a-Grounded out in the 7th.

BEAVERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Giammalva ...........    22   16  59%    4    7    2    5    8    1   94    -
Ghea (L, 3-6) .......    15   11  41%    3    6    5    0    2    1   52  1-1

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bennette (W, 8-0) ...    14   13  48%    1    0    0    1    5    0   50    -
Pohlman .............    14   13  48%    0    1    1    2    3    0   51  1-1
Salaun ..............     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    5  1-0

BEAVERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Giammalva (Outs 1-16) → Ghea (Outs 17-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Waters (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Holzworth (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Tessema (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Hydrick (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Vahaly (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fuenzalida (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Guerra (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Turenne (Outs 1-27)

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Bennette (Outs 1-13) → Pohlman (Outs 14-26) → Salaun (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Salcido (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Banuelos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Staten (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Susnjar (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Manzano (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Schwinger (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Padres (home) batted first; Beavers batted second.
  Seconds: POR o26 (1-13), SDP o26 (13-0).
  First pitch 1:00 PM PT. Weather: 88°F · Wind calm · Clear · Heavy rain · Humid. seed 509507.
  Powerplays: Beavers — Clement NF
  Walk-Back runs: off Giammalva 1, off Ghea 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.56    Peak faced 19.50
    27 outs left: 1.56
    18 outs left: 2.33
     9 outs left: 4.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Haxzel Andrade Warren Bennette (1B) 0–1 —
B 1 Haxzel Andrade Haxzel Andrade (HR) 0–2 —
B 2 Jefry Manzano Haxzel Andrade (3B) 0–3 —
B 8 Zane Staten Stefan Banuelos (2B) 0–4 —
B 14 Reed Lettiere Warren Bennette (3B) 0–5 —
B 15 Ángelo Salcido Huntley Cleveland (3B) 0–6 —
B 15 Ángelo Salcido Kreigh Susnjar (2B) 0–7 —
B 18 Warren Bennette Ángelo Salcido (2B) 0–8 —
B 19 Kreigh Susnjar Jefry Manzano (3B) 0–9 —
B 19 Kreigh Susnjar Warren Bennette (1B) 0–10 —
B 21 Cary Schwinger Kreigh Susnjar (2B) 0–11 —
B 21 Cary Schwinger Cary Schwinger (HR) 0–12 —
B 24 Reed Lettiere Cary Schwinger (3B) 0–13 —
T 12 Holcombe Hydrick Jaime Fuenzalida (3B) 1–13 2.60
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.56
Peak faced 19.50
27 outs left 1.56
18 outs left 2.33
9 outs left 4.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Saitch Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 386' · CF 403' · RF 371' · 6' wall). Oval — Cricket-Ground Revival.
Beavers — Batted Balls
14 BIP· 0 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
386' 403' 371' Jaime Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft Kyron Giammalva — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Hector Waters — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -5° · 72 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — double · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 314 ft Levar De Turenne — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA +1° · 49 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA -11° · 51 ft Aaron Holzworth — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -18° · 72 ft Kyron Giammalva — line_out · EV 52 mph · LA +19° · 65 ft Yadier Guerra — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +23° · 244 ft Holcombe Hydrick — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 166 ft Jaime Fuenzalida — ground_out · EV 59 mph · LA -11° · 56 ft Francisco Vahaly — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 202 ft Aaron Holzworth — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -12° · 49 ft
Padres — Batted Balls
18 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 2 HR
386' 403' 371' Haxzel Andrade — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 372 ft Jefry Manzano — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -18° · 89 ft Zane Staten — single · EV 90 mph · LA +3° · 86 ft Reed Lettiere — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -0° · 80 ft Warren Bennette — single · EV 100 mph · LA +2° · 95 ft Teferi Alemu — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +14° · 120 ft Zane Staten — error · EV 88 mph · LA -16° · 84 ft Jefry Manzano — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +13° · 116 ft Ángelo Salcido — single · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Warren Bennette — single · EV 83 mph · LA +12° · 108 ft Zane Staten — fly_out · EV 87 mph · LA +27° · 247 ft Cary Schwinger — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +26° · 255 ft Kreigh Susnjar — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 229 ft Jefry Manzano — line_out · EV 99 mph · LA +21° · 261 ft Ángelo Salcido — line_out · EV 90 mph · LA +21° · 217 ft Reed Lettiere — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -10° · 87 ft Stefan Banuelos — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 285 ft Cary Schwinger — hr · EV 100 mph · LA +35° · 377 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Beavers
15% deserve-to-win  ·  3.9 expected runs
actual 1 run  ·  -2.9 vs expected
contact: 5.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-3.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jaime Fuenzalida 92 / +34° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Yadier Guerra 92 / +23° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Francisco Vahaly 92 / +18° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Holcombe Hydrick 76 / +23° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Hector Waters 76 / +13° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Padres
85% deserve-to-win  ·  9.1 expected runs
actual 13 runs  ·  +3.9 vs expected
contact: 14.5 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 14.0 (-0.5 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Haxzel Andrade 100 / +34° Pull Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Cary Schwinger 100 / +35° Oppo Home Run 1.9 → 4 +2.07
Stefan Banuelos 100 / +23° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Jefry Manzano 99 / +21° Pull Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Ángelo Salcido 90 / +21° Pull Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
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