==============================================================================
Canaries 21, Phillies 2                                     2026-08-30 · #1531
at Halloran Grounds
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
New Jersey             21   21   16    0
Philadelphia            2    2    2    0

CANARIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Kramer      2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Kerr        rf ......    4   2   1   0   1   0   3   1   1   0   0  0.250
Campos      1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Nachand pr ......    3   1   2   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Bauman      p  ......    5   3   3   1   0   1   2   0   0   0   0  0.600
Cordero     lf ......    4   3   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.500
Fishbach    3b ......    5   0   1   1   0   0   3   0   2   0   0  0.200
Navarro     cf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Hollenbeck  ss ......    4   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   2   0   1  0.500
Richey      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Conway  ph ......    3   3   2   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  0.667
  c-Pastore pr ......    3   4   3   0   0   2   7   0   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Rushing ph ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Woodall     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  37  21  16   4   1   3  21   9   8   0   1  0.432
  2B: Bauman (1), Cordero (36), Fishbach (20), Nachand (3).
  3B: Kerr (3).
  HR: Bauman (1), off Chavez; Pastore 2 (4), off Gullett, Poruri.
  SB: Navarro (5), Nachand (6).
  Squeeze: Conway (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Campos in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Richey in the 5th.
  c-Ran in the 4th.
  d-Batted in the 6th.

PHILLIES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Dias        p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Mattke  pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Awoniyi     lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Logar       1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Santos      2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Israilov    3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Moor        rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Tabaracci   cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
DelSignore  c  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Alvarad pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Martín      ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  c-Andrade ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  27   2   2   0   0   0   2   3  14   0   0  0.074
  GIDP: Logar (7), Tabaracci (9).
  a-Ran for Dias in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for DelSignore in the 4th.
  c-Struck out in the 7th.

CANARIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Bauman (W, 2-1) .....    15   12   65  4.3    1    1    1    2    8    0    -
Tesfaye .............    13   13   55  4.2    1    1    1    1    4    0  2-1
Rico ................     2    2    7  3.5    0    0    0    0    2    0  1-0

PHILLIES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Dias ................    12   11   42  3.5    1    2    1    2    2    0    -
Maples ..............     5    3   15  3.0    1    2    2    2    1    0  1-1
Chavez ..............     4    1   13  3.2    2    4    4    1    1    1  2-2
Gullett (L, 3-3) ....     6    1   17  2.8    3    7    6    2    0    1  2-2
Sippel ..............     7    2   27  3.9    4    4    3    2    1    0  1-1
Poruri ..............     5    4   11  2.2    4    2    2    0    0    1  2-0
Mattke ..............     5    5   22  4.4    0    0    0    0    3    0  1-0

CANARIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Bauman (Outs 1-12) → Tesfaye (Outs 13-25) → Rico (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Richey (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Campos (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Kramer (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Fishbach (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Hollenbeck (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cordero (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Navarro (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Kerr (Outs 1-27)

PHILLIES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Dias (Outs 1-11) → Maples (Outs 12-14) → Chavez (Outs 15-15) → Gullett (Outs 16-16) → Sippel (Outs 17-18) → Poruri (Outs 19-22) → Mattke (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | DelSignore (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Logar (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santos (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Israilov (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Martín (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Awoniyi (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tabaracci (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Moor (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Phillies (home) batted second; Canaries batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 94°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 886302.
  Walk-Back runs: off Gullett 1, off Sippel 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.44    Peak faced 30.00
    27 outs left: 2.44
    18 outs left: 3.67
     9 outs left: 6.67
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 8 Jerome Kerr Ramón Navarro (3B) 1–0 —
T 11 Grant Cordero Levar Nachand (2B) 2–0 —
T 13 Leo Conway Grant Cordero (3B) 3–0 —
T 13 Renaldo Pastore Ramón Navarro (3B) 4–0 —
T 14 Jerome Kerr Leo Conway (2B) 5–0 —
T 14 Jerome Kerr Renaldo Pastore (1B) 6–0 —
T 15 Bjorn Bauman Jerome Kerr (3B) 7–0 —
T 15 Bjorn Bauman Bjorn Bauman (HR) 8–0 —
T 15 Deylin Fishbach Bjorn Bauman (3B) 9–0 —
T 15 Deylin Fishbach Jesse Woodall (2B) 10–0 —
T 15 Deylin Fishbach Grant Cordero (1B) 11–0 —
T 16 Renaldo Pastore Jayden Rushing (3B) 12–0 —
T 16 Renaldo Pastore Tripp Hollenbeck (2B) 13–0 —
T 16 Renaldo Pastore Leo Conway (1B) 14–0 —
T 16 Renaldo Pastore Renaldo Pastore (HR) 15–0 —
T 16 Levar Nachand Renaldo Pastore (3B) 16–0 —
T 16 Levar Nachand Jerome Kerr (1B) 17–0 —
T 18 Tripp Hollenbeck Bjorn Bauman (3B) 18–0 —
T 18 Tripp Hollenbeck Grant Cordero (2B) 19–0 —
T 20 Renaldo Pastore Leo Conway (1B) 20–0 —
T 20 Renaldo Pastore Renaldo Pastore (HR) 21–0 —
B 11 Sandy Santos Nicolas Martín (2B) 21–1 3.94
B 16 Adhithya Tabaracci Anthony Mattke (3B) 21–2 5.45
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.44
Peak faced 30.00
27 outs left 2.44
18 outs left 3.67
9 outs left 6.67
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Halloran Grounds's actual outfield dimensions (LF 271' · CF 492' · RF 299' · 36' wall). Bathtub.
Canaries — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 7 1B · 5 XBH · 3 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Grant Cordero — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA -4° · 77 ft Deylin Fishbach — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -14° · 95 ft Ramón Navarro — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -7° · 72 ft Renaldo Pastore — single · EV 86 mph · LA +10° · 99 ft Jayden Rushing — fielders_choice · EV 93 mph · LA +1° · 88 ft Jerome Kerr — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +30° · 326 ft Hugo Campos — error · EV 97 mph · LA +17° · 211 ft Bjorn Bauman — ground_out · EV 86 mph · LA +7° · 82 ft Grant Cordero — double · EV 103 mph · LA +46° · 425 ft Deylin Fishbach — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 178 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 98 mph · LA +9° · 125 ft Renaldo Pastore — hr · EV 115 mph · LA +29° · 444 ft Levar Nachand — double · EV 84 mph · LA +30° · 245 ft Leo Conway — single · EV 78 mph · LA -15° · 74 ft Jerome Kerr — triple · EV 117 mph · LA +20° · 353 ft Bjorn Bauman — hr · EV 107 mph · LA +41° · 456 ft Deylin Fishbach — double · EV 112 mph · LA +24° · 373 ft Grant Cordero — single · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 136 ft Tripp Hollenbeck — single · EV 98 mph · LA +10° · 130 ft Renaldo Pastore — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +37° · 480 ft Levar Nachand — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA -6° · 67 ft Leo Conway — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 87 ft Bjorn Bauman — single · EV 97 mph · LA +24° · 282 ft Jerome Kerr — ground_out · EV 96 mph · LA +7° · 91 ft Grant Cordero — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +13° · 115 ft Bjorn Bauman — double · EV 102 mph · LA +33° · 378 ft
Phillies — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 2 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
271' 492' 299' Wall 36' Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 52 mph · LA -3° · 49 ft Patrick DelSignore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 92 ft Daniel Israilov — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +4° · 72 ft Sandy Santos — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 124 ft Adhithya Tabaracci — double_play · EV 53 mph · LA +0° · 50 ft Jahiem Moor — fielders_choice · EV 70 mph · LA -11° · 66 ft Daniel Israilov — single · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 80 ft Marco Logar — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -6° · 72 ft Bright Awoniyi — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +0° · 72 ft Anthony Mattke — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -9° · 72 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Canaries
99% deserve-to-win  ·  20.0 expected runs
actual 21 runs  ·  +1.0 vs expected
contact: 31.7 est bases + 9 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 30.0 (-1.7 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Levar Nachand 84 / +30° Oppo Double 0.4 → 2 +1.62
Jerome Kerr 117 / +20° Oppo Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.29
Deylin Fishbach 100 / +13° Oppo Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Hugo Campos 97 / +17° Oppo Reached on Error 1.2 → 0 -1.23
Jerome Kerr 97 / +30° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Phillies
1% deserve-to-win  ·  1.4 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  +0.6 vs expected
contact: 3.0 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 2.0 (-1.0 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Anthony Mattke 76 / +16° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Patrick DelSignore 76 / +12° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Daniel Israilov 76 / +10° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Daniel Israilov 76 / +4° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Bright Awoniyi 76 / +0° Center Out 0.3 → 0 -0.25
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →