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Marlins 4, Red Sox 3                                        2026-08-30 · #1532
at North Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
Miami                   4    4    4    0
Boston                  3    3    8    0

MARLINS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Enquist     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Blackman    c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Chieh-yu    lf ......    2   1   2   1   1   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Hester      p  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Altamirano  1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Groves      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mangin      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Dibert      2b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Enterline   rf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1   .000
Burns       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  13   4   4   1   1   0   4   4   2   0   1  0.308
  2B: Chieh-yu (15).
  3B: Chieh-yu (4).
  SB: Hester (2).
  Squeeze: Enquist.


RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Pope    pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Merrill     lf ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Rowley  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Venegas     c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Núñez       cf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.333
Nytes       ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Falby       1b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Hobbs   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Cameron     rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Miranda ph ......    1   0   1   0   1   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Wolfe       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Cordano ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Wittenberg  p  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Kamara  pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Hodges  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Pfister ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Malard      j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Strachan    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  24   3   8   0   1   0   3   7   5   0   0  0.333
  3B: Miranda (1).
  HBP: Cordano (8).
  GIDP: Núñez (3).
  a-Ran for Suazo in the 3rd.
  b-Ran for Merrill in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Falby in the 5th.
  d-Tripled for Cameron in the 5th.
  e-Batted for Wolfe in the 5th.
  f-Ran for Wittenberg in the 3rd.
  g-Ran in the 4th.
  h-Batted for Malard in the 4th.

MARLINS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Hester (W, 5-8) .....    31   26   98  3.2    8    3    3    7    5    0    -
Dawe ................     1    1    5  5.0    0    0    0    0    0    0  2-0

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT    P P/BF    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR   IR
Wittenberg (L, 1-2) .     9    7   31  3.4    3    2    2    2    0    0    -
Lucena ..............     7    5   32  4.6    1    2    2    2    2    0  1-1

MARLINS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Hester (Outs 1-26) → Dawe (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Blackman (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Altamirano (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Dibert (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mangin (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Groves (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Chieh-yu (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Enquist (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Enterline (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-12)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wittenberg (Outs 1-7) → Lucena (Outs 8-12)
CATCHER (C)       | Venegas (Outs 1-12)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-12)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-12)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Wolfe (Outs 1-12)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-12)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-12)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Núñez (Outs 1-12)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Cameron (Outs 1-12)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Marlins batted second.
  First pitch 4:05 PM ET. Weather: 98°F · Wind calm · Overcast. seed 532017.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.55
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.17
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 3 Jide Falby Walter Núñez (2B) 0–1 —
B 14 Daylan Miranda Bodey Hobbs (1B) 0–2 —
B 16 Ferdi Pope Jacob Hodges (3B) 0–3 —
T 6 Montavious Chieh-yu Alex Dibert (2B) 1–3 0.43
T 6 Montavious Chieh-yu Wallace Enterline (1B) 2–3 0.29
T 7 Ramon Blackman Montavious Chieh-yu (3B) 3–3 0.15
T 11 Wallace Enterline Anthonie Hester (3B) 4–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.55
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.17
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Marlins — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 2 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Montavious Chieh-yu — double · EV 101 mph · LA +35° · 388 ft Ramon Blackman — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 107 ft Jean Altamirano — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA +8° · 85 ft Tennys Groves — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +12° · 139 ft Devon Mangin — ground_out · EV 95 mph · LA +10° · 119 ft Alex Dibert — single · EV 95 mph · LA +9° · 109 ft Anthonie Hester — single · EV 76 mph · LA +14° · 112 ft Don Burns — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +44° · 250 ft Montavious Chieh-yu — triple · EV 103 mph · LA +11° · 157 ft Ramon Blackman — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +9° · 72 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
19 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Manuel Suazo — fielders_choice · EV 89 mph · LA +8° · 84 ft Henri Merrill — single · EV 84 mph · LA +13° · 123 ft Kervin Venegas — fly_out · EV 95 mph · LA +26° · 287 ft Walter Núñez — single · EV 84 mph · LA -8° · 80 ft Jide Falby — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -30° · 72 ft Derek Wittenberg — single · EV 61 mph · LA +17° · 82 ft Ivo Malard — single · EV 85 mph · LA +1° · 80 ft Daylan Miranda — triple · EV 104 mph · LA +22° · 307 ft Raymond Rowley — line_out · EV 80 mph · LA -9° · 76 ft Jacob Hodges — fly_out · EV 98 mph · LA +35° · 363 ft Bernard Strachan — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA +18° · 124 ft Craig Kamara — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +12° · 116 ft Manuel Suazo — single · EV 83 mph · LA +7° · 78 ft Henri Merrill — single · EV 93 mph · LA +19° · 212 ft Walter Núñez — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +30° · 276 ft Jide Falby — single · EV 76 mph · LA -15° · 73 ft Pancho Pfister — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +3° · 76 ft Bernard Strachan — line_out · EV 94 mph · LA +12° · 146 ft Walter Núñez — double_play · EV 86 mph · LA -11° · 82 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Marlins
33% deserve-to-win  ·  7.4 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -3.4 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 7.0 (-1.4 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Montavious Chieh-yu 103 / +11° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Devon Mangin 95 / +10° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.09
Tennys Groves 92 / +12° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Ramon Blackman 84 / +11° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Jean Altamirano 87 / +8° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Red Sox
67% deserve-to-win  ·  10.6 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -7.6 vs expected
contact: 11.4 est bases + 8 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-1.4 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Jacob Hodges 98 / +35° Pull Out 1.5 → 0 -1.47
Daylan Miranda 104 / +22° Pull Triple 1.7 → 3 +1.32
Kervin Venegas 95 / +26° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Bernard Strachan 94 / +12° Oppo Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Jide Falby 76 / -15° Pull Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
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