==============================================================================
Orioles 3, Guardians 2                                      2026-08-30 · #1533
at Rudy Yards
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Cleveland               2    2    4    0
Baltimore               3    3    4    0

GUARDIANS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Haliburton  p  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Carmona     rf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Ardón   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
González    2b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Hutson      cf ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   1  0.500
Batt        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Villarreal  j  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Bannatyne   3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Tanner  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cabrera     c  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Bronaug pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Céspedes    ss ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Rollins pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Totals                  25   2   4   1   0   0   2   3   8   0   1  0.160
  2B: Hutson (10).
  CS: Hutson (4).
  GIDP: Batt (3), Tanner (5).
  a-Batted for Carmona in the 3rd.
  b-Grounded out for Bannatyne in the 6th.
  c-Ran for Cabrera in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Céspedes in the 3rd.

ORIOLES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Ison        2b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Stokke      rf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Schloss     cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  a-Barba   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Dennis      p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Alison      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mateer      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Purchas ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Royal       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Kautz   ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Flowers     lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Samudio     c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Michulk pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Rubin       j  ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  14   3   4   1   0   0   2   1   4   0   0  0.286
  2B: Purchase (16).
  a-Ran for Schloss in the 4th.
  b-Doubled for Mateer in the 4th.
  c-Singled for Royal in the 4th.
  d-Ran for Kautz in the 7th.

GUARDIANS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Haliburton (L, 11-11)     15   11  41%    4    3    3    1    4    0   47    -

ORIOLES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Dennis (W, 17-3) ....    28   27 100%    4    2    2    3    8    0  114    -

GUARDIANS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-11)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Haliburton (Outs 1-11)
CATCHER (C)       | Cabrera (Outs 1-11)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | —
SECOND BASE (2B)  | González (Outs 1-11)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Bannatyne (Outs 1-11)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Céspedes (Outs 1-11)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | —
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Hutson (Outs 1-11)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Carmona (Outs 1-11)

ORIOLES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Dennis (Outs 1-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Samudio (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Alison (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Ison (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Mateer (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Royal (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Flowers (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Schloss (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Stokke (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Orioles (home) batted second; Guardians batted first.
  First pitch 6:00 PM ET. Weather: 96°F · Wind cross · Clear. seed 763969.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.33    Peak faced 0.56
    27 outs left: 0.33
    18 outs left: 0.50
     9 outs left: 0.00
==============================================================================
Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 9 Oren Hutson Clint Bronaugh (3B) 1–0 —
T 20 Oren Hutson Kemari Granberry (3B) 2–0 —
B 11 Rill Kautz Ulises Barba (2B) 2–1 0.38
B 11 Dylan Purchase Arkie Rubin (3B) 2–2 0.19
B 11 Dylan Purchase Geoff Michulka (2B) 2–3 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.33
Peak faced 0.56
27 outs left 0.33
18 outs left 0.50
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Rudy Yards's actual outfield dimensions (LF 357' · CF 498' · RF 341' · 10' wall). Cavernous.
The Lima Bean
Guardians — Batted Balls
15 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' José González — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA -11° · 79 ft Beals Villarreal — fielders_choice · EV 78 mph · LA -4° · 74 ft Júnior Ardón — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 129 ft Clint Bronaugh — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +1° · 87 ft Hal Rollins — ground_out · EV 77 mph · LA +15° · 121 ft Tony Tanner — double_play · EV 70 mph · LA -14° · 66 ft Keshav Haliburton — single · EV 82 mph · LA +23° · 193 ft Chet Batt — double_play · EV 92 mph · LA -13° · 87 ft Beals Villarreal — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +45° · 231 ft Hal Rollins — single · EV 92 mph · LA -16° · 87 ft Clint Bronaugh — single · EV 80 mph · LA +16° · 133 ft Oren Hutson — double · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 302 ft Júnior Ardón — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -3° · 75 ft José González — fly_out · EV 79 mph · LA +27° · 205 ft Keshav Haliburton — line_out · EV 83 mph · LA +16° · 149 ft
Orioles — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
357' 498' 341' Brett Dennis — line_out · EV 93 mph · LA +16° · 177 ft Jarmere Royal — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Korey Flowers — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +36° · 323 ft Rónald Samudio — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 128 ft Arkie Rubin — single · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 200 ft Rill Kautz — single · EV 92 mph · LA -13° · 87 ft Dylan Purchase — double · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 199 ft Rónald Samudio — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +22° · 159 ft Zaimir Schloss — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 218 ft Korey Flowers — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +49° · 229 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Guardians
40% deserve-to-win  ·  2.8 expected runs
actual 2 runs  ·  -0.8 vs expected
contact: 5.9 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Oren Hutson 92 / +32° Center Double 0.7 → 2 +1.27
Hal Rollins 92 / -16° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Keshav Haliburton 83 / +16° Center Out 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Júnior Ardón 76 / +17° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Hal Rollins 77 / +15° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Orioles
60% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 6.2 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-1.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dylan Purchase 92 / +18° Center Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Korey Flowers 92 / +36° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Brett Dennis 93 / +16° Center Out 0.8 → 0 -0.81
Rill Kautz 92 / -13° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Rónald Samudio 76 / +17° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Compare basket · 0 max 4
Compare →