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Astros 11, Cubs 10                                          2026-08-30 · #1534
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                11   11    9    0
Chicago                10   10    6    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Rivas       3b ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
Morales     1b ......    2   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Moros       lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-O'Conno ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Thom        c  ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Herrera ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gómez       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-Patridg ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Neely       rf ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Kingsbu ph ......    2   2   1   0   0   1   3   0   0   0   0  0.500
Tassew      cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   1   .000
  e-Konig   pr ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Arboleda    2b ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Colón   pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ayala       p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  g-Takada  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  h-Prince  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  i-Olsson  pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-Henríqu pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  23  11   9   5   0   1  11   4   4   0   1  0.391
  2B: Konig (3), Rivas 2 (32), Morales 2 (17).
  HR: Kingsbury (5), off Sama.
  CS: Konig (4), Takada (5).
  a-Batted for Moros in the 3rd.
  b-Grounded out for Thom in the 5th.
  c-Singled for Gómez in the 6th.
  d-Batted for Neely in the 3rd.
  e-Ran for Tassew in the 4th.
  f-Ran for Arboleda in the 2nd.
  g-Ran for Ayala in the 3rd.
  h-Ran in the 3rd.
  i-Ran for Patridge in the 3rd.
  j-Ran for Konig in the 6th.

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Santana     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Hollowe pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Heinze      c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.500
  b-Cody    ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
May         3b ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   3   0   0  0.000
Myers       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Shurtleff   rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Solis       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Wambach     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Lamas   ph ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Seol        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Casey   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Musso       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  e-Lamas   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  f-Kurth   pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Palermo pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Segovia ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  i-Nealon  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  j-O'Flahe pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  k-McCullo pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  l-Sapriss ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Conn        j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Schellenger j  ......    1   2   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  1.000
Verhoeven   j  ......    2   1   1   0   0   1   4   0   1   0   0  0.500
Totals                  31  10   6   3   0   1  10   6  17   0   0  0.194
  2B: Heinze (15), Schellenger (4), Lamas (2).
  HR: Verhoeven (2), off Pratt.
  SB: Lamas (18), Kurth (6).
  CS: Lamas (15).
  a-Ran for Santana in the 4th.
  b-Batted for Heinze in the 6th.
  c-Doubled for Wambach in the 8th.
  d-Grounded out for Seol in the 6th.
  e-Ran for Musso in the 3rd.
  f-Ran for Casey in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Hollowell in the 6th.
  h-Struck out for Schellenger in the 7th.
  i-Grounded out for Lamas in the 8th.
  j-Ran for Lamas in the 8th.
  k-Ran for Cody in the 9th.
  l-Struck out in the 9th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ayala (W, 9-4) ......    17   15  56%    2    2    2    1   10    0   63    -
Faber ...............     9    7  26%    2    3    3    1    5    0   35  1-0
Pratt ...............     8    4  15%    1    5    5    4    1    1   24  1-0
Fenty ...............     1    1   4%    0    0    0    0    1    0    3  1-0

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Musso (L, 1-2) ......    13    7  26%    5    5    5    2    2    0   49    -
Sama ................     4    1   4%    2    4    3    1    1    1   17  2-1
Sprengelmeyer .......    10    9  33%    2    2    2    1    1    0   31  2-0

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Ayala (Outs 1-15) → Faber (Outs 16-22) → Pratt (Outs 23-26) → Fenty (Outs 27-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Arboleda (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tassew (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Neely (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-17)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Musso (Outs 1-7) → Sama (Outs 8-8) → Sprengelmeyer (Outs 9-17)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-17)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Santana (Outs 1-17)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Wambach (Outs 1-17)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-17)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-17)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-17)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Myers (Outs 1-17)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Shurtleff (Outs 1-17)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Astros batted second.
  First pitch 7:35 PM CT. Weather: 84°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 400899.
  Powerplays: Astros — Herrera NF (O14)
  Walk-Back runs: off Sama 1.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 1.22
    27 outs left: 1.11
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 15 Douglas Casey Tomas Heinze (2B) 0–1 —
B 15 Víctor Lamas Davion Kurth (2B) 0–2 —
B 20 Ryan Schellenger Harold Palermo (2B) 0–3 —
B 20 Ryan Schellenger Bryce Shurtleff (1B) 0–4 —
B 22 Mikel Lamas Ryan Schellenger (2B) 0–5 —
B 26 Erick May Davion Kurth (3B) 0–6 —
B 26 Brian Verhoeven Ryan Schellenger (3B) 0–7 —
B 26 Brian Verhoeven Josh McCullough (2B) 0–8 —
B 26 Brian Verhoeven Erick May (1B) 0–9 —
B 26 Brian Verhoeven Brian Verhoeven (HR) 0–10 —
T 0 Jeyland Morales Scoville Rivas (2B) 1–10 1.11
T 2 Mayer Gómez Jeyland Morales (3B) 2–10 1.08
T 4 Yasniel Arboleda Van Neely (2B) 3–10 1.04
T 6 Jeyland Morales Rubén Colón (2B) 4–10 1.00
T 7 Butch Patridge Jeff Prince (2B) 5–10 0.90
T 7 Marcos Kingsbury Iapani Thom (2B) 6–10 0.75
T 7 Marcos Kingsbury Herb Olsson (1B) 7–10 0.60
T 7 Marcos Kingsbury Marcos Kingsbury (HR) 8–10 0.45
T 8 Abdiel Ayala Marcos Kingsbury (3B) 9–10 0.32
T 17 Scoville Rivas Angel Henríquez (2B) 10–10 0.30
T 17 Scoville Rivas Masamichi Takada (1B) 11–10 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 1.22
27 outs left 1.11
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Astros — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 5 XBH · 1 HR
311' 428' 340' Scoville Rivas — double · EV 119 mph · LA +20° · 370 ft Jeyland Morales — double · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 179 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -22° · 77 ft Mayer Gómez — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +39° · 304 ft Yasniel Arboleda — single · EV 100 mph · LA -16° · 95 ft Butch Patridge — single · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 240 ft Marcos Kingsbury — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +27° · 422 ft Jeff Prince — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -4° · 76 ft Herb Olsson — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -11° · 76 ft Cedrick Konig — double · EV 100 mph · LA +18° · 235 ft Scoville Rivas — fly_out · EV 100 mph · LA +51° · 392 ft Jeyland Morales — double · EV 96 mph · LA +36° · 347 ft Abdiel Ayala — single · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft Dante O'Connor — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +23° · 284 ft Marcos Kingsbury — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -0° · 95 ft Scoville Rivas — double · EV 100 mph · LA +17° · 221 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
10 BIP· 1 1B · 3 XBH · 1 HR
311' 428' 340' Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 99 mph · LA -30° · 94 ft Douglas Casey — error · EV 70 mph · LA +10° · 65 ft Víctor Lamas — error · EV 84 mph · LA +20° · 182 ft Ryan Schellenger — double · EV 100 mph · LA +34° · 373 ft Mikel Lamas — double · EV 104 mph · LA +14° · 199 ft Phillip Nealon — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +19° · 194 ft Harold Palermo — ground_out · EV 87 mph · LA -8° · 82 ft Tomas Heinze — double · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 141 ft Brian Verhoeven — hr · EV 114 mph · LA +31° · 457 ft Floyd Myers — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -7° · 74 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
65% deserve-to-win  ·  8.4 expected runs
actual 11 runs  ·  +2.6 vs expected
contact: 17.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0
running: 0 SB · 2 CS (-1.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Dante O'Connor 100 / +23° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Marcos Kingsbury 114 / +27° Pull Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Mayer Gómez 88 / +39° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Scoville Rivas 100 / +51° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Jeyland Morales 100 / +13° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Cubs
35% deserve-to-win  ·  6.2 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  +3.8 vs expected
contact: 10.4 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (+0.6 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Brian Verhoeven 114 / +31° Pull Home Run 2.9 → 4 +1.07
Phillip Nealon 90 / +19° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.89
Tomas Heinze 100 / +10° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Mikel Lamas 104 / +14° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Víctor Lamas 84 / +20° Oppo Reached on Error 0.6 → 0 -0.61
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