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Expos 6, Nationals 5                                        2026-08-30 · #1535
at Huerta Stadium
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Washington              5    5    5    0
Montreal                6    6    8    0

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Bothwell    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Miguelito   lf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Pastore     2b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Thompkins   c  ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Devezin     rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Cheng       ss ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Baloy       3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   1  0.000
Foster      1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Fábrega     cf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Jones-W pr ......    3   2   1   1   0   0   4   0   1   0   0  0.333
Heffner     lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Burrows ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Mayer       j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   5   5   1   0   0   5   7  11   0   1  0.200
  2B: Jones-Wesley (7).
  SB: Jones-Wesley (11).
  a-Ran for Fábrega in the 3rd.
  b-Struck out for Heffner in the 8th.

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Geffrard    cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  a-Solórza ph ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Chará       p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   1  0.000
Gareca      3b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Goodson     2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Creek       lf ......    2   0   2   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-MacKay  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Clement     1b ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Spence      c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fielding    ss ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Trigueiro   rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Grizzli pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Katsuhi pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  e-Warner  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Currier     j  ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Morales     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  21   6   8   2   0   0   5   4   1   0   1  0.381
  2B: Gareca (16), Creek (21).
  SB: Currier (6).
  a-Singled for Geffrard in the 5th.
  b-Ran for Creek in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Trigueiro in the 5th.
  d-Ran for Solórzano in the 7th.
  e-Struck out in the 5th.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Bothwell (L, 3-7) ...    24   19  70%    7    6    6    4    1    0   76    -

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Chará (W, 4-0) ......    15   12  44%    4    1    1    3    5    0   55    -
Huard ...............    13   11  41%    1    4    4    3    4    0   34  2-2
Cabalceta ...........     4    4  15%    0    0    0    1    2    0   13  1-0

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-19)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Bothwell (Outs 1-19)
CATCHER (C)       | Thompkins (Outs 1-19)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Foster (Outs 1-19)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-19)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-19)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Cheng (Outs 1-19)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Heffner (Outs 1-19)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fábrega (Outs 1-19)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-19)

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Chará (Outs 1-12) → Huard (Outs 13-23) → Cabalceta (Outs 24-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spence (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gareca (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fielding (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Creek (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Trigueiro (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Expos (home) batted second; Nationals batted first.
  First pitch 1:30 PM ET. Weather: 76°F · Wind calm · Clear · Humid. seed 784914.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.67    Peak faced 0.82
    27 outs left: 0.67
    18 outs left: 0.67
     9 outs left: 0.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 10 Marcos Pastore Carl Jones-Wesley (3B) 1–0 —
T 13 Carl Jones-Wesley Marcos Pastore (3B) 2–0 —
T 13 Carl Jones-Wesley Damion Thompkins (2B) 3–0 —
T 13 Carl Jones-Wesley Daniel Heffner (1B) 4–0 —
T 22 Carl Jones-Wesley Devron San Miguelito (2B) 5–0 —
B 5 Douglas Chará Horace Clement (3B) 5–1 0.68
B 8 Roscoe Spence Omni Fielding (3B) 5–2 0.63
B 12 Curt Gibson Maciek Grizzlies (3B) 5–3 0.60
B 13 Rónald Solórzano Elliott Currier (3B) 5–4 0.43
B 13 Fran Creek Masaaki Katsuhisa (1B) 5–5 0.21
B 19 Elliott Currier Raiden MacKay (3B) 5–6 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.67
Peak faced 0.82
27 outs left 0.67
18 outs left 0.67
9 outs left 0.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Huerta Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 288' · CF 412' · RF 348' · 50' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Nationals — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 4 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Devron San Miguelito — single · EV 91 mph · LA +18° · 199 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 85 mph · LA -8° · 81 ft Damion Thompkins — ground_out · EV 75 mph · LA +9° · 70 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — line_out · EV 96 mph · LA +25° · 285 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — double · EV 98 mph · LA +46° · 380 ft Tyler Mayer — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +8° · 83 ft Devron San Miguelito — ground_out · EV 58 mph · LA +0° · 55 ft Marcos Pastore — single · EV 76 mph · LA +8° · 64 ft Damion Thompkins — single · EV 94 mph · LA +0° · 90 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +5° · 80 ft Marcos Pastore — ground_out · EV 70 mph · LA -15° · 67 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -13° · 61 ft Cheng-wei Cheng — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 100 ft
Expos — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 2 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Román Gareca — double · EV 100 mph · LA +40° · 389 ft Fran Creek — single · EV 85 mph · LA +12° · 118 ft Quincy Geffrard — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +37° · 249 ft Horace Clement — single · EV 80 mph · LA +12° · 100 ft Roscoe Spence — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +26° · 267 ft Raymond Trigueiro — single · EV 92 mph · LA +24° · 248 ft Douglas Chará — fly_out · EV 83 mph · LA +31° · 246 ft Omni Fielding — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +11° · 89 ft Curt Gibson — line_out · EV 103 mph · LA +21° · 282 ft Rónald Solórzano — single · EV 56 mph · LA +22° · 85 ft Maciek Grizzlies — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +29° · 290 ft Roscoe Spence — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +32° · 214 ft Marquis Goodson — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +37° · 223 ft Fran Creek — double · EV 102 mph · LA +15° · 212 ft Roscoe Spence — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +4° · 75 ft Elliott Currier — single · EV 80 mph · LA -15° · 76 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
44% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 7.2 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 6.0 (-1.2 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Cheng-wei Cheng 96 / +25° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Marcos Pastore 85 / -8° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Damion Thompkins 94 / +0° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Marcos Pastore 76 / +8° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Damion Thompkins 75 / +9° Center Out 0.5 → 0 -0.47
Expos
56% deserve-to-win  ·  7.2 expected runs
actual 6 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 10.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 9.0 (-1.0 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Curt Gibson 103 / +21° Center Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Fran Creek 102 / +15° Pull Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Roscoe Spence 92 / +26° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Maciek Grizzlies 92 / +29° Center Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Elliott Currier 80 / -15° Oppo Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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