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Nationals 22, Expos 7                                       2026-08-31 · #1536
at Huerta Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Washington             22   22   12    1
Montreal                7    7   11    1

NATIONALS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Pastore     2b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.250
Burrows     c  ......    5   4   2   0   0   2   3   0   1   0   0  0.400
Miguelito   lf ......    5   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   2   0   0  0.200
Thompkins   3b ......    3   3   1   1   0   0   3   2   1   0   0  0.333
Devezin     rf ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Baloy       1b ......    3   4   2   0   0   1   2   2   1   0   0  0.667
Cruz        cf ......    4   3   1   0   0   1   3   1   2   0   0  0.250
Jones-Wesle ss ......    5   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Rico        p  ......    2   2   1   0   1   0   2   2   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Bartlet ph ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Mayer       j  ......    0   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   0   1   0   .000
Ebun        j  ......    1   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  35  22  12   3   1   4  20  10   9   1   0  0.343
  2B: Miguelito (14), Thompkins (11), Ebun (4).
  3B: Rico (1).
  HR: Burrows 2 (4), off López, Quinteros; Baloy (1), off Matthews; Cruz (2), off Chará.
  E: Ebun (2).
  HBP: Devezin (5), Rico (1).
  a-Batted in the 8th.

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gareca      3b ......    2   2   2   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Geffrard    rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Goodson     2b ......    4   1   2   2   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Creek       lf ......    3   0   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   1   0  0.667
López       p  ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.250
Grizzlies   c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Clement     1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Katsuhisa   ss ......    4   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.250
Hutnick     cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  a-Solórza ph ......    2   1   2   2   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  33   7  11   7   0   0   7   1   6   1   0  0.333
  2B: Gareca (17), Goodson 2 (34), Creek 2 (23), Solórzano 2 (29).
  SB: Clement (5).
  CS: Clement (3).
  E: Gareca (3).
  GIDP: Goodson (3), Creek (6), López (1).
  a-Batted in the 5th.

NATIONALS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Rico (W, 7-15) ......    15   12  44%    4    3    1    1    5    0   50    -
Clemente ............    14    9  33%    7    3    3    0    1    0   47    -
Gilliom (F, 9) ......     5    6  22%    0    1    1    0    0    0    9  2-1

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
López ...............     7    4  15%    2    3    2    2    1    1   18    -
Polo ................    15   11  41%    3    1    1    3    3    0   57  1-0
Matthews (L, 7-7) ...    11    6  22%    3    7    7    1    4    1   36  2-2
Chará ...............     8    3  11%    3    6    5    3    1    1   33  1-1
Quinteros ...........     6    3  11%    1    5    5    1    0    1   27  1-1

NATIONALS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Rico (Outs 1-12) → Clemente (Outs 13-21) → Gilliom (Outs 22-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Burrows (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Baloy (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pastore (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Thompkins (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Jones-Wesley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Miguelito (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Cruz (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Devezin (Outs 1-27)

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | López (Outs 1-4) → Polo (Outs 5-15) → Matthews (Outs 16-21) → Chará (Outs 22-24) → Quinteros (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Grizzlies (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Clement (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Gareca (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Katsuhisa (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Creek (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Hutnick (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Expos (home) batted second; Nationals batted first.
  First pitch 1:35 PM ET. Weather: 82°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 582501.
  Walk-Back runs: off López 1, off Chará 1, off Quinteros 2.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 2.56    Peak faced 24.00
    27 outs left: 2.44
    18 outs left: 3.33
     9 outs left: 6.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 1 Basil Burrows Basil Burrows (HR) 1–0 —
T 2 Rill Devezin Basil Burrows (3B) 2–0 —
T 2 José Cruz Damion Thompkins (3B) 3–0 —
T 13 Tyler Mayer Kendry Baloy (3B) 4–0 —
T 16 Damion Thompkins Tyler Mayer (3B) 5–0 —
T 18 Marcos Pastore José Cruz (3B) 6–0 —
T 19 Aleem Rico Rill Devezin (2B) 7–0 —
T 19 Aleem Rico Damion Thompkins (1B) 8–0 —
T 20 Bobby Ebun Aleem Rico (3B) 9–0 —
T 21 Kendry Baloy Bobby Ebun (2B) 10–0 —
T 21 Kendry Baloy Kendry Baloy (HR) 11–0 —
T 21 Damion Thompkins Kendry Baloy (3B) 12–0 —
T 21 Damion Thompkins Cooper Bartlett (1B) 13–0 —
T 21 Devron San Miguelito Damion Thompkins (2B) 14–0 —
T 24 José Cruz Marcos Pastore (2B) 15–0 —
T 24 José Cruz Aleem Rico (1B) 16–0 —
T 24 José Cruz José Cruz (HR) 17–0 —
T 25 Damion Thompkins José Cruz (3B) 18–0 —
T 26 Devron San Miguelito Kendry Baloy (2B) 19–0 —
T 26 Basil Burrows Devron San Miguelito (1B) 20–0 —
T 26 Basil Burrows Basil Burrows (HR) 21–0 —
T 26 Marcos Pastore Basil Burrows (3B) 22–0 —
B 0 Fran Creek Román Gareca (1B) 22–1 2.44
B 6 Román Gareca Horace Clement (3B) 22–2 3.00
B 6 Fran Creek Masaaki Katsuhisa (3B) 22–3 2.86
B 15 Marquis Goodson Marquis Goodson (3B) 22–4 4.75
B 21 Rónald Solórzano Román Gareca (1B) 22–5 9.00
B 21 Rónald Solórzano Rónald Solórzano (3B) 22–6 8.50
B 24 Maciek Grizzlies Masaaki Katsuhisa (2B) 22–7 16.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 2.56
Peak faced 24.00
27 outs left 2.44
18 outs left 3.33
9 outs left 6.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Huerta Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 288' · CF 412' · RF 348' · 50' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Nationals — Batted Balls
25 BIP· 4 1B · 4 XBH · 4 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Marcos Pastore — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +5° · 93 ft Basil Burrows — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +35° · 437 ft Rill Devezin — single · EV 91 mph · LA +25° · 253 ft José Cruz — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +26° · 206 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — ground_out · EV 106 mph · LA +8° · 128 ft Aleem Rico — fielders_choice · EV 99 mph · LA +2° · 94 ft Kendry Baloy — single · EV 88 mph · LA +13° · 135 ft Tyler Mayer — single · EV 100 mph · LA +10° · 133 ft Bobby Ebun — double · EV 112 mph · LA +19° · 303 ft Cooper Bartlett — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +13° · 179 ft Marcos Pastore — infield_single · EV 66 mph · LA +7° · 63 ft Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 118 mph · LA -2° · 112 ft Devron San Miguelito — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA -4° · 92 ft Aleem Rico — triple · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 251 ft Damion Thompkins — double · EV 117 mph · LA +15° · 281 ft Carl Jones-Wesley — ground_out · EV 98 mph · LA +8° · 93 ft Marcos Pastore — fly_out · EV 97 mph · LA +29° · 321 ft Kendry Baloy — hr · EV 108 mph · LA +39° · 458 ft Damion Thompkins — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +34° · 313 ft Devron San Miguelito — double · EV 99 mph · LA +22° · 266 ft Basil Burrows — ground_out · EV 94 mph · LA -20° · 89 ft José Cruz — hr · EV 119 mph · LA +34° · 480 ft Marcos Pastore — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -8° · 75 ft Devron San Miguelito — error · EV 81 mph · LA +11° · 101 ft Basil Burrows — hr · EV 107 mph · LA +42° · 454 ft
Expos — Batted Balls
26 BIP· 4 1B · 7 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Fran Creek — double · EV 92 mph · LA +44° · 342 ft Devron López — single · EV 85 mph · LA +9° · 90 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Horace Clement — error · EV 76 mph · LA +1° · 72 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — fielders_choice · EV 76 mph · LA -4° · 72 ft Román Gareca — double · EV 92 mph · LA +45° · 339 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 92 mph · LA +32° · 305 ft Fran Creek — double · EV 87 mph · LA +44° · 301 ft Devron López — line_out · EV 82 mph · LA +17° · 155 ft Marquis Goodson — double · EV 85 mph · LA +40° · 283 ft Mark Hutnick — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -7° · 63 ft Román Gareca — single · EV 92 mph · LA +20° · 216 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 93 mph · LA +24° · 257 ft Fran Creek — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA +7° · 72 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +26° · 183 ft Marquis Goodson — double · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 330 ft Horace Clement — single · EV 92 mph · LA +5° · 87 ft Quincy Geffrard — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +14° · 154 ft Devron López — double_play · EV 97 mph · LA +9° · 115 ft Fran Creek — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +32° · 206 ft Masaaki Katsuhisa — single · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Marquis Goodson — double_play · EV 52 mph · LA -15° · 49 ft Horace Clement — fielders_choice · EV 61 mph · LA +4° · 58 ft Quincy Geffrard — line_out · EV 59 mph · LA +12° · 60 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +9° · 109 ft Devron López — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +10° · 75 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Nationals
92% deserve-to-win  ·  21.7 expected runs
actual 22 runs  ·  +0.3 vs expected
contact: 31.3 est bases + 12 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 29.0 (-2.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Aleem Rico 100 / +19° Pull Triple 1.4 → 3 +1.58
Carl Jones-Wesley 106 / +8° Oppo Out 1.4 → 0 -1.39
Cooper Bartlett 100 / +13° Center Out 1.3 → 0 -1.25
Marcos Pastore 97 / +29° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Damion Thompkins 92 / +34° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.94
Expos
8% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.7 vs expected
contact: 14.4 est bases + 1 walk/HBP  ·  actual batted 17.0 (+2.6 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 1 CS (-0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Marquis Goodson 85 / +40° Pull Double 0.7 → 2 +1.32
Rónald Solórzano 93 / +24° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.11
Devron López 97 / +9° Center Double Play 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Rónald Solórzano 92 / +32° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
Marquis Goodson 92 / +38° Pull Double 0.9 → 2 +1.06
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