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Astros 8, Cubs 7                                            2026-08-31 · #1537
at Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum
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                        1    R    H    E
Houston                 8    8    8    0
Chicago                 7    7   10    0

ASTROS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Basham      p  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Colón   pr ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Plum        2b ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   1   1   0   0   0  1.000
Rivas       3b ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  b-Kingsbu ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Morales     1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  c-O'Conno ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.500
Moros       lf ......    3   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
Thom        c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Arboled pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gómez       ss ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Neely       rf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   1   0   0  0.667
Tassew      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  e-Henríqu pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  f-Herrera ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  g-Konig   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  h-Olsson  pr ......    1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Trejo       j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Valencia    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   8   8   3   0   0   8   5  11   0   0  0.320
  2B: Plum (7), Kingsbury (14), O'Connor (18).
  SB: Colón (16), Neely (4), Olsson (8).
  HBP: Thom (3).
  a-Ran for Basham in the 7th.
  b-Batted for Rivas in the 3rd.
  c-Batted for Morales in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Thom in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Tassew in the 6th.
  f-Struck out for Konig in the 6th.
  g-Grounded out in the 6th.
  h-Ran in the 4th.

CUBS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Santana     2b ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Heinze      c  ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Segovia ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
May         3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Hollowe pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Myers       cf ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  c-Kurth   pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Shurtleff   1b ......    4   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   3   0   0  0.250
Solis       ss ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Seol        lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  d-Casey   ph ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   2   0   0  0.000
Sarkissian  rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Wimer       p  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
  e-O'Flahe pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Cody    ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Palermo pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
  h-Lamas   ph ......    2   1   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Conn        j  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Schellenger j  ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  32   7  10   3   0   0   7   4  15   0   0  0.312
  2B: Heinze (16), Wimer (4), Lamas (3).
  SB: Shurtleff (6), Solis (7).
  CS: Conn (5).
  a-Batted for Heinze in the 5th.
  b-Ran for May in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Myers in the 4th.
  d-Batted for Seol in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Wimer in the 7th.
  f-Walked in the 5th.
  g-Ran for Cody in the 5th.
  h-Batted for Kurth in the 6th.

ASTROS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Basham ..............     6    3  11%    4    1    1    0    2    0   19    -
Abrams (W, 5-3) .....    11    9  33%    2    2    2    1    2    0   39  1-0
Francavilla .........    11    8  30%    3    3    3    2    6    0   39  1-0
Hammerbeck ..........     8    7  26%    1    1    1    1    5    0   33  1-0

CUBS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wimer (L, 3-21) .....    21   15  56%    3    4    4    4    8    0   82    -
Bay-Regula ..........    10    6  22%    5    4    4    1    3    0   37  2-0

ASTROS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Basham (Outs 1-3) → Abrams (Outs 4-12) → Francavilla (Outs 13-20) → Hammerbeck (Outs 21-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Thom (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Morales (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Plum (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Rivas (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gómez (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Moros (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Tassew (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Neely (Outs 1-27)

CUBS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-21)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Wimer (Outs 1-15) → Bay-Regula (Outs 16-21)
CATCHER (C)       | Heinze (Outs 1-21)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Shurtleff (Outs 1-21)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Santana (Outs 1-21)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | May (Outs 1-21)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Solis (Outs 1-21)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Seol (Outs 1-21)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Myers (Outs 1-21)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Sarkissian (Outs 1-21)

  Batting order: Cubs (home) batted first; Astros batted second.
  First pitch 7:10 PM CT. Weather: 83°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 326267.
  Powerplays: Astros — Herrera NF (O10)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.89    Peak faced 1.71
    27 outs left: 0.89
    18 outs left: 1.00
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 1 Floyd Myers Tomas Heinze (2B) 0–1 —
B 9 Wyatt Conn Maurice Hollowell (2B) 0–2 —
B 11 Douglas Casey Davion Kurth (3B) 0–3 —
B 17 Mikel Lamas Harold Palermo (2B) 0–4 —
B 17 Bryce Shurtleff Mikel Lamas (2B) 0–5 —
B 20 Brad Wimer Bryce Shurtleff (3B) 0–6 —
B 20 Harold Palermo Kristian O'Flaherty (2B) 0–7 —
T 2 Iapani Thom Scoville Rivas (3B) 1–7 0.84
T 9 Remington Plum Rubén Colón (2B) 2–7 1.00
T 12 Van Neely Herb Olsson (3B) 3–7 1.00
T 15 Van Neely Van Neely (3B) 4–7 1.00
T 20 Dante O'Connor Mirko Moros (2B) 5–7 1.29
T 20 Dante O'Connor Herb Olsson (1B) 6–7 0.86
T 20 Marcos Kingsbury Dante O'Connor (2B) 7–7 0.43
T 21 Angel Henríquez Marcos Kingsbury (2B) 8–7 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.89
Peak faced 1.71
27 outs left 0.89
18 outs left 1.00
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Ivanov-Smolensky Coliseum's actual outfield dimensions (LF 311' · CF 428' · RF 340' · 13' wall). Balanced.
Hand-Operated Scoreboard Crescent Grandstand
Astros — Batted Balls
13 BIP· 5 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Jeyland Morales — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA -15° · 86 ft Iapani Thom — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA -2° · 87 ft Mayer Gómez — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +7° · 95 ft Remington Plum — double · EV 98 mph · LA +20° · 244 ft Maxi Valencia — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -6° · 60 ft Herb Olsson — single · EV 119 mph · LA +15° · 286 ft Angel Henríquez — single · EV 92 mph · LA -12° · 87 ft Mirko Moros — line_out · EV 112 mph · LA +21° · 343 ft Van Neely — single · EV 88 mph · LA +25° · 235 ft Dante O'Connor — double · EV 100 mph · LA +27° · 321 ft Marcos Kingsbury — double · EV 118 mph · LA +20° · 364 ft Van Neely — single · EV 90 mph · LA +26° · 253 ft Mirko Moros — single · EV 96 mph · LA +4° · 92 ft
Cubs — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 7 1B · 3 XBH · 0 HR
311' 428' 340' Jaume Santana — infield_single · EV 69 mph · LA -4° · 65 ft Tomas Heinze — double · EV 106 mph · LA +30° · 390 ft Floyd Myers — single · EV 92 mph · LA -10° · 88 ft Eddie Solis — single · EV 88 mph · LA +11° · 112 ft Yong-soo Seol — ground_out · EV 73 mph · LA +22° · 150 ft Brad Wimer — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +6° · 80 ft Wyatt Conn — single · EV 93 mph · LA +22° · 237 ft Douglas Casey — fly_out · EV 80 mph · LA +29° · 217 ft Mikel Lamas — double · EV 101 mph · LA +18° · 244 ft Harold Palermo — single · EV 110 mph · LA +3° · 104 ft Jaume Santana — single · EV 99 mph · LA +6° · 94 ft Tomas Heinze — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 308 ft Floyd Myers — fielders_choice · EV 86 mph · LA +4° · 82 ft Eddie Solis — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -2° · 60 ft Teófilo Segovia — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA -12° · 76 ft Bryce Shurtleff — single · EV 95 mph · LA -28° · 90 ft Brad Wimer — double · EV 100 mph · LA +15° · 204 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Astros
69% deserve-to-win  ·  9.1 expected runs
actual 8 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 11.2 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 11.0 (-0.2 on contact)
running: 3 SB · 0 CS (+1.2 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Mirko Moros 112 / +21° Center Out 1.7 → 0 -1.71
Remington Plum 98 / +20° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Dante O'Connor 100 / +27° Center Double 1.3 → 2 +0.67
Angel Henríquez 92 / -12° Oppo Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Mirko Moros 96 / +4° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.52
Cubs
31% deserve-to-win  ·  6.2 expected runs
actual 7 runs  ·  +0.8 vs expected
contact: 11.0 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 13.0 (+2.0 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.1 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Tomas Heinze 100 / +25° Oppo Out 1.1 → 0 -1.07
Jaume Santana 69 / -4° Center Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Brad Wimer 100 / +15° Oppo Double 1.3 → 2 +0.75
Floyd Myers 92 / -10° Pull Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
Bryce Shurtleff 95 / -28° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.63
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