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Stars 4, Brewers 3                                          2026-08-31 · #1538
at Neviaser Bowl
==============================================================================

                        1    R    H    E
Milwaukee               3    3    8    0
Nashville               4    4    4    0

BREWERS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Mesidor     c  ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   2   1   0  0.333
Fossati     lf ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
Irving      cf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   4   0   0  0.000
Williams    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Espinoza    3b ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.333
  a-Trejo   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Edwards     2b ......    2   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Saravia pr ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
Yani        rf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Kaplan      1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Ebun        p  ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.500
  c-Ishida  pr ......    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Totals                  31   3   8   1   0   0   2   3  12   1   1  0.258
  2B: Mesidor (38).
  SB: Saravia (4).
  GIDP: Espinoza (8).
  a-Grounded out for Espinoza in the 8th.
  b-Ran for Edwards in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Ebun in the 5th.

STARS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Gaubert     ss ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   0   0  0.500
Gayton      cf ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.667
  a-Cubillá pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Karouani    1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Cooper      lf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  b-Santama ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Sappington  c  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Fusano      2b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Spence      rf ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Coupe       3b ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
  c-Caballe pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Trujillo    p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Mendez  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Boattin pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Burani  ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  g-Beers   pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Santiago    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  18   4   4   1   0   0   4   3   8   0   0  0.222
  2B: Coupe (6).
  HBP: Karouani (9).
  a-Ran for Gayton in the 7th.
  b-Grounded out for Cooper in the 5th.
  c-Ran for Coupe in the 4th.
  d-Struck out for Trujillo in the 6th.
  e-Ran in the 5th.
  f-Walked for Caballero in the 6th.
  g-Ran for Burani in the 6th.

BREWERS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Ebun (L, 21-7) ......    23   18  67%    4    4    4    3    9    0   74    -

STARS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Trujillo (W, 8-11) ..    22   17  63%    7    2    2    0    8    0   87    -
Forrest .............    12   10  37%    1    1    1    3    4    0   50  2-0

BREWERS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-18)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Ebun (Outs 1-18)
CATCHER (C)       | Mesidor (Outs 1-18)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Kaplan (Outs 1-18)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Edwards (Outs 1-18)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Espinoza (Outs 1-18)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Williams (Outs 1-18)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Fossati (Outs 1-18)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Irving (Outs 1-18)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Yani (Outs 1-18)

STARS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Trujillo (Outs 1-17) → Forrest (Outs 18-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Sappington (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Karouani (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Fusano (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Coupe (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Gaubert (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Cooper (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Spence (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Stars (home) batted second; Brewers batted first.
  First pitch 6:30 PM CT. Weather: 86°F · Wind cross · Clear · Humid. seed 895452.
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.44    Peak faced 0.52
    27 outs left: 0.44
    18 outs left: 0.33
     9 outs left: 0.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
T 14 Alan Fossati Toshihiro Ishida (3B) 1–0 —
T 14 Stan Mesidor Sergio Saravia (3B) 2–0 —
T 20 Stan Mesidor Toshihiro Ishida (3B) 3–0 —
B 9 Edwin Gayton Sean Spence (2B) 3–1 0.50
B 9 Hady Coupe Edwin Gayton (1B) 3–2 0.33
B 12 Erwin Santiago Jaime Gaubert (3B) 3–3 0.20
B 17 Jaime Gaubert Haxzel Cubillán (2B) 3–4 0.00
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.44
Peak faced 0.52
27 outs left 0.44
18 outs left 0.33
9 outs left 0.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Neviaser Bowl's actual outfield dimensions (LF 279' · CF 373' · RF 278' · 12' wall). The Bandbox.
Brewers — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 7 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
279' 373' 278' Alan Fossati — single · EV 75 mph · LA +5° · 71 ft Jesse Williams — fielders_choice · EV 65 mph · LA +1° · 61 ft Andres Espinoza — double_play · EV 80 mph · LA +2° · 76 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 81 mph · LA -5° · 77 ft Sergio Saravia — infield_single · EV 70 mph · LA -1° · 66 ft Francis Trejo — ground_out · EV 56 mph · LA -2° · 53 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 65 mph · LA -14° · 61 ft Daniel Edwards — single · EV 100 mph · LA -6° · 95 ft Jesse Williams — ground_out · EV 83 mph · LA +8° · 79 ft Alan Fossati — infield_single · EV 62 mph · LA +24° · 116 ft Frank Ebun — single · EV 70 mph · LA +19° · 123 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +5° · 72 ft Andres Espinoza — single · EV 84 mph · LA -16° · 80 ft Alan Fossati — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +17° · 215 ft Stan Mesidor — double · EV 89 mph · LA +32° · 285 ft Steven Kaplan — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +41° · 258 ft Graydon Yani — ground_out · EV 79 mph · LA -10° · 75 ft
Stars — Batted Balls
9 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
279' 373' 278' Sean Spence — fielders_choice · EV 84 mph · LA -12° · 80 ft Erwin Santiago — ground_out · EV 99 mph · LA -9° · 94 ft Nestor Santamaría — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -7° · 84 ft Khosilot El Karouani — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA +8° · 95 ft Edwin Gayton — single · EV 88 mph · LA +3° · 84 ft Hady Coupe — double · EV 111 mph · LA +16° · 263 ft Wallace Sappington — ground_out · EV 90 mph · LA +7° · 85 ft Jaime Gaubert — single · EV 100 mph · LA -1° · 95 ft Edwin Gayton — single · EV 100 mph · LA -4° · 95 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Brewers
43% deserve-to-win  ·  3.5 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.5 vs expected
contact: 6.5 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 8.0 (+1.5 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.4 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Alan Fossati 98 / +17° Center Out 1.2 → 0 -1.22
Sergio Saravia 70 / -1° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Alan Fossati 62 / +24° Oppo Single 0.1 → 1 +0.87
Alan Fossati 75 / +5° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.75
Daniel Edwards 81 / -5° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.68
Stars
57% deserve-to-win  ·  4.0 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  as expected
contact: 5.2 est bases + 4 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-0.2 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Edwin Gayton 88 / +3° Center Single 0.4 → 1 +0.59
Edwin Gayton 100 / -4° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Jaime Gaubert 100 / -1° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.55
Erwin Santiago 99 / -9° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
Khosilot El Karouani 100 / +8° Oppo Out 0.5 → 0 -0.50
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