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Red Sox 4, Giants 3                                          2026-06-25 · #899
at North Ground
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                        1    R    H    E
San Francisco           3    3    3    0
Boston                  4    4    3    0

GIANTS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Cardozo     2b ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  a-Rosado  pr ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Estrada     cf ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Gallowa ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Matos       rf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  c-Figuero pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Kelley      ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Reyes       c  ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  1.000
  d-Anger   pr ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Leininger   lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Connelly    3b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Short       1b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Jimenez ph ......    1   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  1.000
Mateas      p  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
  f-Arbeloa pr ......    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Fornaro ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Capdevila   j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Sundling    j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Totals                  26   3   3   0   0   0   2   7  12   0   0  0.115
  CS: Figueroa (4).
  GIDP: Estrada (4).
  Squeeze: Arbeloa.
  a-Ran for Cardozo in the 3rd.
  b-Batted for Estrada in the 4th.
  c-Ran for Matos in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Reyes in the 5th.
  e-Singled for Short in the 7th.
  f-Ran for Jimenez in the 6th.
  g-Batted in the 6th.

RED SOX
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Suazo       2b ......    3   0   2   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.667
Fehr        cf ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Pope    pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Merrill     lf ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   .000
Nytes       ss ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.000
Falby       1b ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Harrell     rf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Alderman    3b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.000
Hack        c  ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Castillo    p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   1  0.000
  b-Venegas ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  c-Chang   ph ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
  d-Waston  pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Hodges  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
Inniss      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   1  0.000
Malard      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Strachan    j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  25   4   3   0   0   0   3   7  11   0   3  0.120
  Squeeze: Inniss (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Fehr in the 3rd.
  b-Walked for Pope in the 3rd.
  c-Walked in the 3rd.
  d-Ran for Venegas in the 3rd.
  e-Ran in the 4th.

GIANTS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Mateas (L, 9-5) .....    19   15  56%    3    3    3    4    5    0   67    -
Moore ...............    13   12  44%    0    1    1    3    6    0   52  2-1

RED SOX PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Castillo (W, 1-0) ...    24   20  74%    3    1    1    4    8    0   88    -
Root ................     4    4  15%    0    2    2    1    2    0   18  2-1
Campbell ............     4    3  11%    0    0    0    2    2    0   19  2-0

GIANTS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Mateas (Outs 1-15) → Moore (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Reyes (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Short (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Cardozo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Connelly (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Kelley (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Leininger (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Estrada (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Matos (Outs 1-27)

RED SOX DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Castillo (Outs 1-20) → Root (Outs 21-24) → Campbell (Outs 25-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Hack (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Falby (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Suazo (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Alderman (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Nytes (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Merrill (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Fehr (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Harrell (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Red Sox (home) batted first; Giants batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM ET. Weather: 64°F · Wind calm · Overcast · Light rain · Humid. seed 472552.
  Powerplays: Giants — Anger NF (O24)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 0.56    Peak faced 2.00
    27 outs left: 0.56
    18 outs left: 0.83
     9 outs left: 1.33
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 9 Mark Harrell Ferdi Pope (3B) 0–1 —
B 10 Bryce Alderman Agustín Waston (3B) 0–2 —
B 13 Dexter Inniss Jacob Hodges (3B) 0–3 —
B 17 Bryce Alderman Eliot Hack (3B) 0–4 —
T 13 Raziel Jimenez Raziel Jimenez (3B) 1–4 0.86
T 20 Brad Galloway Manolo Figueroa (3B) 2–4 1.29
T 23 Tally Mateas Cas Arbeloa (3B) 3–4 1.50
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 0.56
Peak faced 2.00
27 outs left 0.56
18 outs left 0.83
9 outs left 1.33
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to North Ground's actual outfield dimensions (LF 356' · CF 454' · RF 319' · 14' wall). Balanced.
Knothole Gates
Giants — Batted Balls
11 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Antolín Matos — single · EV 79 mph · LA +15° · 125 ft Alafia Kelley — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +16° · 123 ft Jhonny Reyes — single · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 107 ft Pramod Estrada — double_play · EV 84 mph · LA +16° · 154 ft Ignacio Rosado — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA +23° · 165 ft Raziel Jimenez — single · EV 93 mph · LA +12° · 138 ft Alafia Kelley — line_out · EV 64 mph · LA +17° · 90 ft Reuben Leininger — fly_out · EV 89 mph · LA +30° · 272 ft Tally Mateas — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA -9° · 80 ft Ignacio Rosado — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA +39° · 299 ft Tally Mateas — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +48° · 230 ft
Red Sox — Batted Balls
12 BIP· 3 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
356' 454' 319' Wall 14' Manuel Suazo — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA -20° · 64 ft Hal Fehr — single · EV 76 mph · LA +13° · 103 ft Inman Nytes — ground_out · EV 63 mph · LA -27° · 60 ft Jide Falby — ground_out · EV 67 mph · LA -19° · 63 ft Mark Harrell — ground_out · EV 53 mph · LA +8° · 60 ft Bryce Alderman — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +35° · 218 ft Dexter Inniss — ground_out · EV 81 mph · LA +10° · 90 ft Manuel Suazo — infield_single · EV 68 mph · LA +6° · 65 ft Bryce Alderman — fly_out · EV 76 mph · LA +35° · 218 ft Agustín Waston — fly_out · EV 77 mph · LA +46° · 236 ft Dexter Inniss — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -3° · 68 ft Ivo Malard — ground_out · EV 66 mph · LA +9° · 60 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Giants
73% deserve-to-win  ·  4.2 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -1.2 vs expected
contact: 5.6 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (-2.6 on contact)
running: 0 SB · 1 CS (-0.7 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Reuben Leininger 89 / +30° Oppo Out 0.7 → 0 -0.73
Pramod Estrada 84 / +16° Oppo Double Play 0.6 → 0 -0.61
Alafia Kelley 76 / +16° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Ignacio Rosado 76 / +23° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Antolín Matos 79 / +15° Oppo Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Red Sox
27% deserve-to-win  ·  2.6 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  +1.4 vs expected
contact: 2.7 est bases + 7 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 3.0 (+0.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Manuel Suazo 68 / +6° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.90
Manuel Suazo 68 / -20° Pull Single 0.1 → 1 +0.89
Dexter Inniss 81 / +10° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.58
Hal Fehr 76 / +13° Center Single 0.5 → 1 +0.53
Mark Harrell 53 / +8° Pull Out 0.3 → 0 -0.33
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