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Expos 10, Padres 5                                           2026-06-25 · #900
at Huerta Stadium
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                        1      2    R    H    E
San Diego               5      0    5    8    0
Montreal               10      0   10   10    0

PADRES
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
MacCracken  c  ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Andrade     cf ......    2   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Clarke  pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Wada        p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
Gleeson     2b ......    3   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.333
Atehortua   1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  b-Fernánd ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Lavelle     rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Najar       3b ......    4   1   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Batt        ss ......    3   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Lettiere    lf ......    3   2   2   0   1   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.667
Totals                  30   5   8   3   1   0   4   3   8   0   0  0.267
  2B: Andrade (6), Gleeson (2), Najar (3).
  3B: Lettiere (2).
  GIDP: Andrade (3).
  Squeeze: MacCracken.
  a-Ran for Andrade in the 5th.
  b-Grounded out for Atehortua in the 6th.

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Solórzano   lf ......    3   1   1   1   0   0   2   1   0   0   0  0.333
Walsh       cf ......    2   3   1   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0  0.500
Creek       2b ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.250
Geffrard    3b ......    4   0   2   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.500
Fielding    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Spence      c  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0  1.000
  a-Grizzli pr ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Dienelt     1b ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Pérez       rf ......    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   0  0.000
Chará       p  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1  0.000
  b-Bennett ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gibson      j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Currier     j  ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   .000
Morales     j  ......    2   1   2   0   0   0   3   0   0   0   0  1.000
Totals                  31  10  10   1   0   0   9   5   8   0   1  0.323
  2B: Solórzano (11).
  SB: Morales 2 (5).
  HBP: Pérez (5).
  Squeeze: Morales (1 RBI).
  a-Ran for Spence in the 5th.
  b-Struck out in the 8th.

PADRES PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Wada (L, 7-6) .......    23   15  56%    6    9    9    4    5    0   78    -
Sun .................    13   12  44%    3    1    1    1    3    0   45  1-0

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Chará (W, 1-0) ......    17   14  52%    3    2    2    1    4    0   67    -
Juarez (F, 67) ......    14   13  48%    4    3    3    2    4    0   59  2-0

PADRES DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Wada (Outs 1-15) → Sun (Outs 16-27)
CATCHER (C)       | MacCracken (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Atehortua (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Gleeson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Najar (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Batt (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Lettiere (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Andrade (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Lavelle (Outs 1-27)

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITCHER (P)       | Chará (Outs 1-14) → Juarez (Outs 15-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spence (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dienelt (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Creek (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Geffrard (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fielding (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Solórzano (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Walsh (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Pérez (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Expos (home) batted first; Padres batted second.
  Seconds: SDP o25 (5-10), MON o25 (10-0).
  First pitch 6:30 PM ET. Weather: 74°F · Wind calm · Clear. seed 515826.
  Powerplays: Padres — Fernández NF (O11)
  Chase (RRR/3O — runs per 3 outs needed to win):
    Starting 1.22    Peak faced 9.00
    27 outs left: 1.22
    18 outs left: 1.50
     9 outs left: 3.00
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score RRR/3O
B 4 Roscoe Spence Nathan Walsh (2B) 0–1 —
B 6 Rónald Solórzano Roscoe Spence (3B) 0–2 —
B 6 Rónald Solórzano Jordi Pérez (2B) 0–3 —
B 10 Roscoe Spence Nathan Walsh (3B) 0–4 —
B 13 Elliott Currier Maciek Grizzlies (3B) 0–5 —
B 13 Pedro Morales Jordi Pérez (3B) 0–6 —
B 13 Pedro Morales Rónald Solórzano (3B) 0–7 —
B 13 Pedro Morales Elliott Currier (3B) 0–8 —
B 13 Pedro Morales Pedro Morales (2B) 0–9 —
B 22 Quincy Geffrard Nathan Walsh (2B) 0–10 —
T 9 Haxzel Andrade Chet Batt (3B) 1–10 1.67
T 9 Haxzel Andrade Reed Lettiere (2B) 2–10 1.50
T 22 Reed Lettiere Lucas Clarke (3B) 3–10 4.80
T 22 Reed Lettiere Yoshimar Najar (2B) 4–10 4.20
T 22 Reed Lettiere Reed Lettiere (3B) 5–10 3.60
Chase — Pressure Curve (RRR/3O)

Runs per 3 outs the second-batting side needed to win (cricket-over analog; league pace is ~1.3 per 3 outs).

Starting 1.22
Peak faced 9.00
27 outs left 1.22
18 outs left 1.50
9 outs left 3.00
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Huerta Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 288' · CF 412' · RF 348' · 50' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Padres — Batted Balls
17 BIP· 3 1B · 4 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Etienne Gleeson — double · EV 100 mph · LA +38° · 387 ft Keshav Atehortua — line_out · EV 75 mph · LA +20° · 149 ft Ludlow MacCracken — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +17° · 131 ft Haxzel Andrade — double_play · EV 76 mph · LA -12° · 72 ft Yoshimar Najar — double · EV 101 mph · LA +33° · 372 ft Chet Batt — fielders_choice · EV 73 mph · LA -6° · 69 ft Israel Fernández — ground_out · EV 97 mph · LA +0° · 92 ft Lucas Clarke — fielders_choice · EV 66 mph · LA -5° · 63 ft Yoshimar Najar — ground_out · EV 72 mph · LA -9° · 68 ft Haxzel Andrade — double · EV 95 mph · LA +23° · 261 ft Ludlow MacCracken — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -21° · 72 ft Chet Batt — ground_out · EV 84 mph · LA +24° · 211 ft Lucas Clarke — single · EV 101 mph · LA +5° · 96 ft Thomas Lavelle — single · EV 78 mph · LA -14° · 75 ft Yoshimar Najar — single · EV 96 mph · LA +14° · 170 ft Reed Lettiere — triple · EV 101 mph · LA +13° · 180 ft Yoshimar Najar — line_out · EV 76 mph · LA +19° · 144 ft
Expos — Batted Balls
20 BIP· 8 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Nathan Walsh — single · EV 88 mph · LA +22° · 214 ft Omni Fielding — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Roscoe Spence — single · EV 100 mph · LA -0° · 95 ft Cameron Dienelt — ground_out · EV 88 mph · LA -2° · 84 ft Curt Gibson — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +16° · 167 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 100 mph · LA -9° · 95 ft Jordi Pérez — line_out · EV 84 mph · LA +11° · 105 ft Rónald Solórzano — double · EV 88 mph · LA +50° · 305 ft Quincy Geffrard — single · EV 92 mph · LA +6° · 88 ft Roscoe Spence — single · EV 87 mph · LA -6° · 82 ft Cameron Dienelt — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +25° · 306 ft Pedro Morales — single · EV 100 mph · LA +22° · 275 ft Douglas Chará — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +15° · 191 ft Nathan Walsh — fielders_choice · EV 88 mph · LA +2° · 84 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 100 mph · LA -24° · 95 ft Quincy Geffrard — line_out · EV 98 mph · LA +14° · 176 ft Cameron Dienelt — line_out · EV 100 mph · LA +19° · 243 ft Rónald Solórzano — fly_out · EV 88 mph · LA +34° · 287 ft Fran Creek — single · EV 100 mph · LA -13° · 95 ft Quincy Geffrard — single · EV 80 mph · LA -31° · 76 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Padres
24% deserve-to-win  ·  6.3 expected runs
actual 5 runs  ·  -1.3 vs expected
contact: 11.7 est bases + 3 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 12.0 (+0.3 on contact)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Reed Lettiere 101 / +13° Oppo Triple 1.3 → 3 +1.75
Haxzel Andrade 95 / +23° Oppo Double 1.2 → 2 +0.78
Thomas Lavelle 78 / -14° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.76
Keshav Atehortua 75 / +20° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Ludlow MacCracken 76 / +17° Pull Out 0.5 → 0 -0.54
Expos
76% deserve-to-win  ·  11.1 expected runs
actual 10 runs  ·  -1.1 vs expected
contact: 14.2 est bases + 6 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 10.0 (-4.2 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 0 CS (+0.8 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Rónald Solórzano 88 / +50° Center Double 0.5 → 2 +1.48
Cameron Dienelt 100 / +19° Pull Out 1.4 → 0 -1.42
Cameron Dienelt 100 / +25° Pull Out 1.3 → 0 -1.33
Quincy Geffrard 98 / +14° Center Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
Douglas Chará 98 / +15° Pull Out 1.1 → 0 -1.10
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