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Expos 4, Reds 3                                              2026-07-03 · #981
at Huerta Stadium
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                        1    R    H    E
Cincinnati              3    3    6    1
Montreal                4    4    4    1

REDS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Subhash     ss ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Suarez  pr ......    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Pittman     2b ......    2   1   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  b-Goodwin ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Gayton      cf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Núñez   ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Murakami    1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Tsoubanos   3b ......    3   1   2   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.667
Levy        rf ......    4   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.250
Dilworth    c  ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
Villalobos  lf ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Post        p  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  d-David   ph ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Ribera  pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
  f-Corozo  ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
  g-Lyman   pr ......    1   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
Warwick     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Totals                  28   3   6   0   0   0   3   2  10   0   0  0.214
  SB: Pittman (5).
  E: Subhash (5).
  GIDP: Levy (3), Villalobos (2).
  a-Ran for Subhash in the 5th.
  b-Struck out for Pittman in the 7th.
  c-Grounded out for Gayton in the 7th.
  d-Batted for Post in the 5th.
  e-Ran in the 7th.
  f-Grounded out for Suarez in the 6th.
  g-Ran in the 8th.

EXPOS
                        AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   K  2C  SH   H/AB
Goodson     2b ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0  0.500
  a-Solórza pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   .000
López       p  ......    1   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  1.000
  b-Grizzli pr ......    2   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.500
Walsh       cf ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
Creek       rf ......    3   0   1   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.333
Dienelt     1b ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   2   0   0  0.000
  c-Quinter pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Deener      3b ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
  d-Huitema pr ......    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   .000
Fielding    ss ......    3   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Pérez       lf ......    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   0  0.000
Spence      c  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   0  0.000
  e-Triguei pr ......    2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0  0.000
  f-Geffrar ph ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Gibson      j  ......    2   0   0   0   0   0   1   0   1   0   0  0.000
Currier     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0  0.000
Morales     j  ......    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  0.000
Totals                  29   4   4   1   0   0   3   4  13   0   0  0.138
  2B: López (10).
  SB: Trigueiro (2), Huitema (2).
  CS: Grizzlies (4).
  E: Morales (4).
  HBP: Spence (2).
  GIDP: Walsh (4).
  a-Ran for Goodson in the 8th.
  b-Ran for López in the 3rd.
  c-Ran for Dienelt in the 8th.
  d-Ran for Deener in the 4th.
  e-Ran for Spence in the 3rd.
  f-Grounded out for Huitema in the 7th.

REDS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
Post (L, 1-2) .......    31   25  93%    4    4    3    3   12    0   90    -
Dodd ................     3    2   7%    0    0    0    1    1    0   14  2-0

EXPOS PITCHING
                         BF  OUT  OS%    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    P   IR
López (W, 12-1) .....    26   22  81%    4    3    3    2    9    0   93    -
Brown (F, 5) ........     3    5  19%    1    0    0    0    1    0    9  2-0

REDS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | Post (Outs 1-25) → Dodd (Outs 26-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Dilworth (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Murakami (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Pittman (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Tsoubanos (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Subhash (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Villalobos (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Gayton (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Levy (Outs 1-27)

EXPOS DEFENSIVE LOG (OUTS 1-27)
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POSITION          | FIELD COVERAGE BY OUT-ENVELOPE
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PITCHER (P)       | López (Outs 1-22) → Brown (Outs 23-27)
CATCHER (C)       | Spence (Outs 1-27)
FIRST BASE (1B)   | Dienelt (Outs 1-27)
SECOND BASE (2B)  | Goodson (Outs 1-27)
THIRD BASE (3B)   | Deener (Outs 1-27)
SHORTSTOP (SS)    | Fielding (Outs 1-27)
LEFT FIELD (LF)   | Pérez (Outs 1-27)
CENTER FIELD (CF) | Walsh (Outs 1-27)
RIGHT FIELD (RF)  | Creek (Outs 1-27)

  Batting order: Expos (home) batted first; Reds batted second.
  First pitch 5:45 PM ET. Weather: 82°F · Wind out · Clear · Humid. seed 65427.
  Powerplays: Reds — David NF (O7)
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Scoring Events
Half Outs Batter Runner (from) Score
B 12 Fran Creek Raymond Trigueiro (3B) 0–1
B 16 Marquis Goodson Jenson Huitema (3B) 0–2
B 21 Pedro Morales Rónald Solórzano (3B) 0–3
B 22 Curt Gibson Augusto Quinteros (3B) 0–4
T 14 Lyle Pittman Ed Tsoubanos (3B) 1–4
T 21 Jackson Levy Felix Ribera (2B) 2–4
T 22 Ed Tsoubanos Lyle Pittman (3B) 3–4
Spray Charts Hybrid-physics overlay — EV / LA / spray sampled per BIP. Hover a dot for details. Engine outcome is the categorical hit_type; the dot's position is the visualization.
Out Single 2B/3B HR Reached on Error
Charts drawn to Huerta Stadium's actual outfield dimensions (LF 288' · CF 412' · RF 348' · 50' wall). Short Porch (Left).
Reds — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 5 1B · 0 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Ed Tsoubanos — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -16° · 78 ft Jackson Levy — error · EV 64 mph · LA +24° · 123 ft Emmanuel Murakami — line_out · EV 78 mph · LA +22° · 169 ft Devron Villalobos — double_play · EV 63 mph · LA -1° · 60 ft Lyle Pittman — fly_out · EV 84 mph · LA +14° · 133 ft Zachary Subhash — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA +9° · 74 ft Bret David — ground_out · EV 80 mph · LA +21° · 169 ft Orlando Núñez — ground_out · EV 76 mph · LA -1° · 72 ft Carr Lyman — single · EV 81 mph · LA +1° · 77 ft Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 77 mph · LA -9° · 73 ft Jackson Levy — single · EV 82 mph · LA -4° · 78 ft Lyle Pittman — single · EV 95 mph · LA +8° · 102 ft Blaise Dilworth — line_out · EV 57 mph · LA +25° · 99 ft Jackson Levy — ground_out · EV 78 mph · LA -5° · 74 ft Ed Tsoubanos — single · EV 84 mph · LA +1° · 80 ft Jackson Levy — double_play · EV 85 mph · LA -2° · 81 ft
Expos — Batted Balls
16 BIP· 3 1B · 1 XBH · 0 HR
288' 412' 348' Wall 50' Marquis Goodson — fly_out · EV 82 mph · LA +50° · 262 ft Devron López — double · EV 96 mph · LA +19° · 228 ft Nathan Walsh — ground_out · EV 64 mph · LA -11° · 61 ft Omni Fielding — line_out · EV 88 mph · LA +10° · 110 ft Maciek Grizzlies — single · EV 76 mph · LA +12° · 96 ft Quincy Geffrard — line_out · EV 65 mph · LA +14° · 81 ft Pedro Morales — fly_out · EV 92 mph · LA +38° · 328 ft Omni Fielding — ground_out · EV 92 mph · LA +18° · 194 ft Fran Creek — fly_out · EV 81 mph · LA +37° · 255 ft Marquis Goodson — single · EV 74 mph · LA +20° · 145 ft Curt Gibson — error · EV 86 mph · LA +24° · 222 ft Maciek Grizzlies — ground_out · EV 82 mph · LA -13° · 78 ft Omni Fielding — ground_out · EV 57 mph · LA -3° · 54 ft Fran Creek — single · EV 69 mph · LA +14° · 93 ft Nathan Walsh — double_play · EV 87 mph · LA +10° · 100 ft Jordi Pérez — line_out · EV 92 mph · LA +16° · 183 ft
Luck Ledger Deserve-to-win is a Pythagorean on expected runs — each ball's (EV, LA) contact quality turned into an expected event line, plus actual walks/HBP, run through O27-fitted BaseRuns (so a walk-and-advance offense counts). The table below is the batted-ball view: estimated bases per ball vs. what it produced. The gap is contact luck — hard contact that found a glove, or weak contact that fell in.
Reds
25% deserve-to-win  ·  3.3 expected runs
actual 3 runs  ·  -0.3 vs expected
contact: 5.9 est bases + 2 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-0.9 on contact)
running: 1 SB · 0 CS (+0.5 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Ed Tsoubanos 77 / -9° Center Single 0.2 → 1 +0.77
Ed Tsoubanos 84 / +1° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Carr Lyman 81 / +1° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.69
Jackson Levy 82 / -4° Center Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
Lyle Pittman 84 / +14° Pull Out 0.6 → 0 -0.59
Expos
75% deserve-to-win  ·  5.8 expected runs
actual 4 runs  ·  -1.8 vs expected
contact: 8.4 est bases + 5 walks/HBP  ·  actual batted 5.0 (-3.4 on contact)
running: 2 SB · 1 CS (+0.3 runs)
PlayerEV/LASprayResult Est→ActLuck
Pedro Morales 92 / +38° Oppo Out 0.9 → 0 -0.92
Omni Fielding 92 / +18° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Jordi Pérez 92 / +16° Center Out 0.9 → 0 -0.90
Devron López 96 / +19° Pull Double 1.2 → 2 +0.76
Fran Creek 69 / +14° Pull Single 0.3 → 1 +0.66
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